RUMORS OF CABINET FORMATION PREMATURE

C O N F I D E N T I A L BEIRUT 001197 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/03/2019 TAGS: PGOV KDEM PINS LE SY SUBJECT: RUMORS OF CABINET FORMATION PREMATURE Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission Thomas F. Daughton for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Reports in the Lebanese press that a cabinet would be announced on November 3 appear to have been premature. On November 3, Nader Hariri, advisor to Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri, told us that the PM-designate undertook expedited negotiations with Michel Aoun, head of the Change and Reform bloc, via Marada leader Sleiman Frangieh. He said Aoun proposed on November 2 to get the ministries of telecommunications (minus current minister Gebran Bassil), energy, culture, and tourism. Saad Hariri agreed, but Frangieh came back later saying that Aoun wanted to exchange the culture ministry for the industry ministry. Hariri agreed again, only for Frangieh to return still later with Hizballah MP Haj Hussein Khalil to propose trading the industry ministry to either the economy ministry or the social services ministry. The escalating demands proved too much for Hariri, who said "enough is enough," according to Nader. Hariri's offers to date have been fully coordinated with his allies, Nader said, and he is convinced that Aoun's allies will push him to reduce his demands. ¶2. (C) Syria is pressuring the opposition to reach a deal before Syrian President Bashar al-Asad's planned visit to Paris next week, March 14 Secretary General Fares Suaid told us on November 2. Suaid said Saad Hariri believes making some concessions is better than having no cabinet, although Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea protested to Hariri and has also stridently criticized Aoun in the press over the last few days. Suaid also reported that the majority is downcast about the retreat from its initial maximalist positions vis-a-vis Aoun. OPPOSITION CAUTIOUSLY UPBEAT -------------- ¶3. (C) Marwan Abu Fadel, aide to opposition Druze leader Talal Arslan, told us on November 3 that the opposition was on board to accept Hariri's proposal to grant the Change and Reform bloc the telecom ministry (on the condition that current caretaker Minister of Energy and Water Alain Tabourian take it over),the ministry of energy and water (which would be headed by current caretaker Telecom Minister Gebran Bassil),and the culture and tourism ministries. He said Hizballah, which had used its political capital to convince Aoun to accept the 15-10-5 cabinet formula, reunited its opposition partners the evening of November 2 to convince Aoun to accept the proposal. Aoun and Hariri are still negotiating over who will head the ministries of culture and tourism, Abu Fadel reported, and he expected a resolution within days. Even so, Abu Fadel described the new government as "a legitimate caretaker government" that will be deadlocked from the start because it will reflect the torturous process that birthed it. ¶4. (C) Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) MP Alain Aoun told polchief on November 3 that while negotiations are "up and down," there is progress and a resolution is "a step away." He confirmed that the ministries of telecommunications and energy will go to the FPM, in addition to two smaller ministries. He reported "no major obstacles" remaining and expected resolution in a day or two. ¶5. (C) COMMENT: Although reports from the majority and opposition are contradictory, both sides appear to feel that a solution will arrive in the near future. Aoun has proven to be a stubborn and persistent negotiator, however, and he will likely continue his tactics until he believes that he has extracted as much as possible from Hariri. SISON