LEBANON: TALKING TO SYRIA IS A REDLINE FOR JUMBLATT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 000117 SIPDIS DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA ALSO FOR IO PDAS WARLICK P FOR DRUSSELL AND RRANGASWAMY USUN FOR WOLFF/GERMAIN/SCHEDLBAUER NSC FOR MCDERMOTT E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/27/2019 TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PINR UNSC MARR MOPS SY LE SUBJECT: LEBANON: TALKING TO SYRIA IS A REDLINE FOR JUMBLATT REF: A. BEIRUT 0106 ¶B. BEIRUT 0092 Classified By: Ambassador Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) Druze leader Walid Jumblatt lamented to the Ambassador in a January 28 meeting that the March 14 alliance was still struggling to agree on which candidates will run in each district. Insisting that his relationship with Druze rival Talal Arslan was "good," Jumblatt revealed that Arslan had indirectly threatened trouble among the Druze if Arslan did not "get the Chouf back" in the June elections. The Armenian Tashnaq party would remain with the opposition, he said, and would not ally with independent MP Michel Murr. Jumblatt said that when he met Hizballah MP Mohammed Raad with Arslan, the two pressured him to meet with the Syrians but he refused, saying that was a "red line" for him. Jumblatt also criticized the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) G-2 intelligence wing and LAF Commander Kahwagi. End summary. MARCH 14 STRUGGLING TO AGREE ON CANDIDATES -------------- ¶2. (C) The Ambassador, accompanied by PolOff, met Druze leader Walid Jumblatt at his residence in Clemenceau on January 28. Characterizing the January 26 meeting of March 14 members at Qoreitem as "good," Jumblatt said the alliance still struggled with agreeing on which candidates will run in each district. They still have not decided who will run in Kesarwan, Zgharta, or his own base district, the Chouf, he said. ¶3. (C) In the Chouf, Saad Hariri's advisor Ghattas Khoury, National Liberal Party leader Dory Chamoun, and Lebanese Forces MP George Adwan are all vying for one of the Maronite Christian slots, Jumblatt sighed, declaring (several times), "I am tired." He relayed that Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea, who currently has five deputies, is hoping to retain five Maronite Christian slots, a goal that conflicts with Kataeb leader Amine Gemayel's aspiration to gain five deputies (his party currently has no deputies since two were assassinated). ¶4. (C) Druze rival Talal Arslan reportedly told Jumblatt that he "wanted the Chouf back" from Jumblatt and that he would run in the elections himself. According to Jumblatt, Arslan threatened Jumblatt with trouble among the Druze if he was unsuccessful. Jumblatt confessed he was undecided how to respond to Arslan, believing that he would need guarantees from Arslan that Jumblatt's Progressive Socialist Party deputies would retain their seats if he made a deal with Arslan. ¶5. (C) "Nevertheless," he said, "no one will declare their candidacy until the last minute, April 6, because as soon as they do, they have to abide by the campaign financing laws recently enacted." (Note: According the Ministry of Interior, nominations of candidates begins on March 2; April 7 is the last day for nominations; and April 22 is the deadline for withdrawing nominations. End note.) ¶6. (C) Jumblatt said majority leader Saad Hariri was confident that former PM Najib Mikati would partner with him for the elections, along with Minister of Economy and Trade Mohammed Safadi (Ref A). Even if the majority loses the elections, he predicted, Saad could become the PM, and Speaker Nabih Berri would remain in his position. (However, said Jumblatt, Saad's acceptance of a Hizballah-led offer to serve as PM would mean "entering into a trap.") Jumblatt said PM Fouad Siniora could run in the elections on Education Minister Bahiya Hariri's list in Sidon, Siniora's home town. TASHNAQ LIKELY TO STAY WITH AOUN, NOT MURR -------------- BEIRUT 00000117 002 OF 002 ¶7. (C) Jumblatt dismissed reports that there is a division between father Michel Murr and son Elias Murr, but admitted he was not an expert in "Murrology." He asserted that the Armenian Tashnaq will not ally with MP Michel Murr, and will instead remain allied with the opposition. Jumblatt expected that MTV (Murr TV),the potential Christian alternative to Free Patriotic Movement leader Michel Aoun's OTV, would be opening soon after a seven-year interruption, thanks to Saudi funding passed through Saad Hariri. (Note: Local press reported the same day that MTV would resume broadcasting on March 31. End note.) TALKING TO SYRIANS IS A "RED LINE," Thoughts on the Arab Peace Initiative -------------- -------------- ¶8. (C) Jumblatt met with Hizballah MP Mohammed Raad on January 21 (Ref B) in a meeting mediated by Arslan. He said that both Raad and Arslan were pushing him to talk to the Syrians. Noting that his relationship with Arslan since the May events has been "good," Jumblatt insisted that meeting the Syrians is a "red line" for him and that he had communicated this to Arslan and Raad. Jumblatt recounted a disagreement with Raad, who was reportedly seeking to establish an "independence day" for the "national liberation movements," to which Jumblatt said he responded that "Hizballah was not independent." ¶9. (C) Jumblatt assessed that the Syrians were unlikely to "drop Iran for Saudi Arabia" and would not support the Arab Peace Initiative. He further stated that the Syrians needed to deliver on getting weapons out of the Palestinian camps, but were unable. Separately, Jumblatt said that if the U.S. were to engage directly with Syria, it would be good to first signal this opening to the Lebanese and reassure them of its support. He also said that GOL leaders would be labeled as traitors if they tried to negotiate even indirectly with Israel, and that all of Lebanon's issues with Israel should be resoled through the UN. PROBLEMS IN LAF, ISF INTEL ORGANIZATIONS -------------- ¶10. (C) Jumblatt criticized Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) Commander Jean Kahwagi and LAF G-2 (military intelligence) Director BG Edmond Fadel, saying the second-in-command at the LAF G-2, Col. Abbas Ibrahim, was really in charge and the other two were "ignorant of intelligence." According to Jumblatt, the military intelligence was not responding to reports that hundreds of PFLP-GC fighters have entered Beddawi and Ain el Hilweh Palestinian camps through Qoussaya, the PFLP-GC base on the border of Lebanon and Syria, despite the fact that they are entering the country with false papers. ¶11. (C) Further, Jumblatt said, the LAF Chief of Staff, Gen. Shawki Masri, a Druze close to Jumblatt, is not permitted access to military intelligence. The head of the Internal Security Forces (ISF) Information Bureau (intelligence branch),Wissam Hassan, who is close to Hariri, had been sidelined due to the lack of technical cooperation by Minister of Telecommunications Gibran Bassil. Jumblatt also complained that LAF Col. Daniel Fares, who previously worked for jailed Gen. Jamil Sayyed at Surete Generale, had been seconded to the Telecommunications Ministry to work on "bugging" or surveillance (Sayyed was arrested in connection with the murder of former PM Rafiq Hariri). Jumblatt added that the Surete General, now under Gen. Wafiq Jezzini, is "all Hizballah." FUTURE TRAVEL PLANS -------------- ¶12. (C) Jumblatt reported that he may travel to Saudi Arabia the first week of February, and was also considering a trip to Russia. SISON