LEBANON: NATIONAL "DIALOGUE" ACTUALLY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIRUT 000110 SIPDIS DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA ALSO FOR IO/PDAS WARLICK P FOR DRUSSELL AND RRANGASWAMY USUN FOR WOLFF/GERMAIN/SCHEDLBAUER NSC FOR MCDERMOTT E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/26/2019 TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PINR UNSC MARR LE SY SUBJECT: LEBANON: NATIONAL "DIALOGUE" ACTUALLY "MONOLOGUES", GEMAYEL SAYS REF: A. BEIRUT 92 ¶B. BEIRUT 84 Classified By: Ambassador Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) Former president and Kataeb leader Amine Gemayel told the Ambassador the January 26 National Dialogue session was another opportunity to hear "very important monologues." Gemayel said his attempts in the session to push Hizballah representative MP Mohammad Raad to reveal Hizballah's "true positions" remain unknown. Others who attended the session characterized it as "a waste of time" and "fruitless." However, Gemayel was hopeful that there was an opportunity to resolve some of region's problems with the appointment of U.S. Special Envoy George Mitchell and a renewed regional focus on the Arab Peace Initiative. ¶2. (C) The March 14 coalition was still working on selecting its candidates for the parliamentary elections, Gemayel said. The coalition has "a lot of work to do," he admitted and expressed a preference for the candidates and electoral platform to be announced locally, rather than nationally. Separately, other March 14 figures confirmed that the coalition's leadership agreed to hold a rally on February 14 to mark the anniversary of former PM Rafiq Hariri's assassination, followed by a convention on March 14, and endorsed an election action plan developed by the coalition's Secretariat (Ref B). Gemayel also informed the Ambassador he would travel to Washington, DC in early March at the invitation of U.S. Institute of Peace and would be interested in meetings with USG officials. End summary. NATIONAL "DIALOGUE" SESSIONS "FRUITLESS MONOLOGUES?" -------------- ¶3. (C) In a January 27 meeting, March 14 member and Kataeb leader Amine Gemayel commented sarcastically to the Ambassador the National Dialogue sessions are a series of "very important monologues." Gemayel said during the fourth session, held the day before, he pushed Hizballah representative MP Mohammad Raad to fully explain Hizballah's position on its allegiance and the its definition of sovereignty. Gemayel argued that it was important for Lebanon to know whether Hizballah committed itself to the state of Lebanon or to Iran's doctrine of "wilayat al-fakih." In addition, he said he questioned whether Lebanon could be "sovereign" if autonomous actors were permitted to maintain weapons, seek outside financing, and maintain its own infrastructure, such as telecommunications and power services, as Hizballah currently does. Raad, Gemayel said, was "like a sphinx" -- no one really knows Hizballah's position. ¶4. (C) Separately, March 14 leader Samir Geagea (Lebanese Forces) told the DCM the same evening the National Dialogue session was a "waste of time." He indicated he was the only participant who raised the issue of implementing previous National Dialogue agreements related to eliminating weapons outside of Lebanon's Palestinian refugee camps. Meanwhile, Agriculture Minister and member of the opposition Elie Skaff told us January 27 the session was "fruitless" and said each party at the table was mocking the other. Skaff believed the issue of Hizballah's weapons would only be resolved if there was regional detente; Hizballah would not voluntarily disarm. Similarly, Armenian Tashnaq MP Hagop Pakradunian called the session "dull." ¶5. (C) The January 26 National Dialogue session concluded with the release of a six-point statement (see unofficial translation in paragraph 12). The next session is scheduled for March 2. OPPORTUNITY FOR REGIONAL PROGRESS? BEIRUT 00000110 002 OF 003 -------------- ¶6. (C) Hizballah members, and by extension Syria, Gemayel theorized, were currently practicing a policy of "appeasement" whereby they were slowly consolidating their power and extending their reach, until one day it would be too late for the GOL to do anything about it. However, Gemayel believed an opportunity to address several regional problems was present, using the Arab Peace Initiative as a starting point, and with the start of the new U.S. administration and the appointment of George Mitchell as the U.S. Special Envoy to the Middle East. However, he cautioned that the U.S., as well as its European allies, especially the French, should not be too pragmatic or naive when considering a new approach towards Syria and/or Hizballah. The Syrians, he said, "never say what they really think, and vice versa; while Hizballah is capable of changing its behavior at anytime, like it did in May 2008." Gemayel also informed the Ambassador that Qatar was preparing to send a high-level delegation to Lebanon soon for discussions with the political leadership to discuss ways forward on the Arab Peace Initiative. GEMAYEL: MARCH 14 LEADERSHIP HAS "A LOT TO DO" BEFORE ELECTIONS -------------- ¶7. (C) Following the National Dialogue session, the March 14 coalition leadership held a previously-scheduled meeting at Qoreitem to discuss its electoral preparations, Gemayel confirmed. He said March 14 "still had a lot of work to do" to finalize its candidate lists and to develop its electoral messages. When the Ambassador asked if the public could expect March 14 to roll out its plans at a convention, Gemayel deferred and said "maybe there will be a convention on March 14." However, Gemayel expressed his preference that March 14 announce its candidates for each district locally, as well as tailor the platform message to each district. Currently, he said, March 14 was not prepared "to announce anything" as there were still disagreements on the candidate lists. ¶8. (C) Gemayel continued he believed it was important for March 14 members to be "on the same wavelength." He complained that Druze leader Walid Jumblatt was giving up too much to Hizballah, and March 14 leader Saad Hariri was not far behind. (Note: Jumblatt held a meeting with Hizballah representatives January 21 to discuss security concerns in the Chouf district, Ref A, following similar meetings between Hariri and Hizballah representatives which began October 26. End note.) In a show of optimism, Gemayel said if March 14 improves its timetable; has good candidates in key Christian districts, such as the Metn, Kesrwan, and Zahle; and can capture the votes of independents, then March 14 could win the elections. ¶9. (C) In separate conversations with Embassy staff, March 14 SYG Fares Souaid and Hariri advisors Ghattas Khoury and Nader Hariri said the March 14 leadership meeting had gone well. They confirmed that the leadership agreed to hold a rally on February 14 to mark the anniversary of former PM Rafiq Hariri's assassination, followed by the March 14 political convention on March 14. At the rally, only Saad Hariri and one other March 14 figure would speak, Khoury said. Souaid also informed us that the leadership agreed to the electoral roadmap the March 14 Secretariat developed (Ref B). GEMAYEL TO WASHINGTON MARCH 5 -------------- ¶10. (SBU) Gemayel informed the Ambassador he accepted an invitation from the U.S. Institute of Peace (USIP) to deliver a lecture in Washington, DC on March 5. He expected to spend several days in Washington, and was seeking appointments at the Brookings Institution, either before or after the USIP event. COMMENT -------------- BEIRUT 00000110 003 OF 003 ¶11. (C) It is unlikely there will be any substantive progress on Hizballah's weapons prior to the June 7 elections. As for the March 14 coalition's electoral preparations, it will need to finalize its slate of candidates very soon to prepare for viable campaigns against opposition candidates. Gemayel expressed interest in meeting USG officials during his Washington trip, a request Embassy supports. We will transmit firm details of his schedule and availability for meetings, once we have them. End comment. UNOFFICIAL TRANSLATION OF NATIONAL DIALOGUE STATEMENT -------------- ¶12. (U) Begin text of unofficial translation of the statement released after the January 26 National Dialogue session: The President of the Republic opened the session with an overview of the major developments that occurred domestically and regionally as a result of the criminal Israeli aggression on Gaza. The President praised the unity of the Lebanese position, both at the popular and official levels, by denouncing this aggression and in preventing its negative implications domestically. The President also clarified his position regarding his participation in the Doha meeting for Gaza and the Kuwait summit and the principle stances he adopted at the two meetings. He also praised steps taken towards domestic reconciliation and hoped to take steps in that direction. He reminded of the need to conclude the needed administrative appointments in light of the upcoming parliamentary elections (DG for the ministry of Interior, Governors, Constitutional Court, etc.) The participants continued discussing the national defense strategy and agreed upon the following: ¶1. Expressed satisfaction with regard to the unity of Lebanese stance with regards to the Gaza events, by denouncing the Israeli aggression, expressing solidarity with the Palestinian people and avoiding domestic implications for this aggression and the regional disputes that accompanied this aggression. ¶2. Asserted the Lebanese consensus in rejecting Palestinian resettlement in Lebanon, supported their right of return and reviving the plan that was set in order to consolidate Lebanon's position in that respect with the major capitals. ¶3. Continue working on implementing national dialogue resolutions, especially solving the issue of Palestinian weapons outside the camps and to secure the proper conditions for achieving it. ¶4. Appreciated Arab reconciliation with the hope it will have positive implications on the domestic situation ¶5. Completing the formation of the technical experts team that will be entrusted to collect all papers presented regarding the national defense strategy, study it and extract common factors, in a bid to gather them in one plan that will be discussed at the national dialogue table once it is completed. ¶6. The national dialogue session shall resume on March 2 at 11:00 at the Baabda palace. End text. SISON