HARIRI AWAITS REGIONAL EVENTS BEFORE NEGOTIATING

C O N F I D E N T I A L BEIRUT 001088 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/04/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL PINS SY SA LE SUBJECT: HARIRI AWAITS REGIONAL EVENTS BEFORE NEGOTIATING Classified By: Ambassador Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Lebanon's political atmosphere appears improved following a week of talks with parliamentary blocs, but progress still awaits the expected Saudi-Syria rapprochement, Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri told the Ambassador on October 2. Hariri reported that he had sought to draw in the opposition, particularly Christian leader Michel Aoun, with wide-ranging talks on the country's problems and priorities. A 15-10-5 cabinet formula was still Hariri's goal, but he argued that President Sleiman may need to take a stronger stand in the future. Hariri appears to be creating political space for himself to compromise with the opposition and, ultimately, develop a relationship with Syria. End summary. AWAITING SAUDI-SYRIA RAPPROCHEMENT -------------- ¶2. (C) The current political atmosphere is positive, PM-designate Hariri told the Ambassador October 2, but all sides are focused on the anticipated visit to Damascus by Saudi King Abdullah bin Abdul Aziz before moving forward on government formation. Hariri thought the visit might occur October 6 or 7. Despite much speculation that Saudi Arabia sought to delink Lebanon from its broader relationship with Syria, Hariri expected that King Abdullah and Syrian President Bashar al-Asad would prioritize Lebanon in the bilateral talks. Until the meeting's outcome became clear, Hariri was in "no rush" to form the government, he said. He did not expect Lebanese President Michel Sleiman to attend the Asad-Abdullah meeting in Damascus. However, in an effort to break the monopoly that the opposition parties have on Lebanon's relationship with its neighbor, Hariri said he would plan to make a trip to Damascus following cabinet formation. WOOING AOUN -------------- ¶3. (C) Hariri said he was carrying out a "charm offensive" against Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) leader Michel Aoun. His goal is to make Aoun feel like a partner in the government formation process by engaging directly with the Christian opposition leader on pressing issues, including decentralization, corruption and sectarianism. In his October 1 statement following the conclusion of parliamentary consultations, Hariri emphasized his efforts to rebuild trust among the various political factions. Through discussions, he said, he sought to "bolster factors of confidence" to "open a breach in the (political) wall." Anyone who "wants to be a partner in this government should really feel that he is a true partner in it," Hariri reiterated. ¶4. (C) Two camps existed within March 14 regarding the inclusion in the new government of caretaker Telecom Minister and former MP Gebran Bassil, Hariri stated. One side in March 14 said "hell no" to Bassil's inclusion since he lost his parliamentary re-election bid, whereas the other side argued that if March 14 made Bassil a "big deal" in negotiations, Aoun would dig in his heels over his son in-law. Such a move by Aoun, Hariri reasoned, would fracture the FPM rank-and-file as they realize that the FPM is not a political party but instead a family monopoly. Hariri said he would "give them Bassil" if the cabinet were formed "the next day," but there were more issues to resolve than just Bassil. In addition, Hariri assessed that Aoun's recent demand for the finance ministry was "a bluff." SLEIMAN "TOO WILLING" -------------- ¶5. (C) Hariri still seeks a 15-10-5 cabinet formula, but called for the President to take a stronger stand against opposition demands. Hariri counted 17 within this formula as "majority" -- 15 plus Defense Minister Elias Murr and the (as yet unnamed) Sunni minister from the President's bloc. If unable to form a consensus national unity government, Hariri would consider submitting a cabinet list to the president and then "insisting on it," he said. Prime ministers can return for additional terms, but Sleiman had only one five-year term as president to make his mark, Hariri said he had pointed out to the president on October 1. The President was "too willing to accept key portfolios in his cabinet share, Hariri suggested. While Hariri ruled out Bassil's return as telecom minister, he also expressed hesitation about Sleiman's eagerness to add the telecom ministry to the President's cabinet share as part of a compromise. TIT FOR TAT IN PARLIAMENT -------------- ¶6. (C) On parliament, Hariri suggested that if a cabinet were not formed before the October 20 constitutionally mandated opening of parliament, Hariri and his allies would not agree to elect parliamentary committees as retribution for opposition intransigence. Hariri's 71 allies, including Druze leader Walid Jumblatt, were on board with the plan to make parliament a chip in negotiations, he said. (Note: In a separate meeting October 2, Jumblatt told the Ambassador that he did not believe parliament would open on October 20 if no cabinet had been announced. End note.) ¶7. (C) COMMENT: Hariri presented new justifications that indicate he may well compromise on including Bassil in the cabinet and consider new solutions to the squabble over the telecoms ministry. He also clearly signaled his intention to develop an independent relationship with Syria after cabinet formation. Meanwhile, following October 5 talks with Hariri, Christian opposition leader Aoun declared that a comprehensive agreement on a new government could soon be announced after the Prime Minister-Designate completed his consultations with all political parties. SISON