SCENESETTER FOR S/E GEORGE MITCHELL'S SEPTEMBER 16

C O N F I D E N T I A L BEIRUT 001012 SIPDIS C O R R E C T E D COPY TEXT E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/13/2019 TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR UNSC MARR MOPS LE SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR S/E GEORGE MITCHELL'S SEPTEMBER 16 VISIT REF: BEIRUT 647 Classified By: Ambassador Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) Embassy Beirut welcomes your September 16 visit. Your meeting with President Sleiman will reinforce the message that we value his views and that we recognize that Lebanon has its own issues and agenda in the context of a comprehensive Middle East Peace. Lebanese interest in the progress of your discussions with the Palestinian Authority, the Government of Israel and other regional actors has remained keen since your June 12 visit. Meanwhile, the GOL maintains its opposition to the permanent resettlement ("tawteen") of Palestinian refugees in Lebanon. ¶2. (C) The process of government formation is still ongoing. Majority leader Saad Hariri resigned as prime minister-designate on September 10, but is expected to be renominated in a new round of consultations this week. On September 11, three rockets were launched from southern Lebanon into northern Israel; Israel replied by firing artillery shells aimed at the site of the launch. After consultations with President Sleiman, caretaker Prime Minister Fouad Siniora condemned the attack and reiterated Lebanon's commitment to UNSCR 1701. End summary. GOVERNMENT FORMATION STILL ONGOING -------------- ¶3. (C) Despite the success of the pro-Western March 14 coalition in the June 7 parliamentary elections, the GOL's government formation process has been painfully protracted. Majority leader Saad Hariri resigned as prime minister-designate on September 10, citing irreconcilable differences with the opposition, especially Christian leader Michel Aoun, over the distribution of cabinet portfolios and the selection of ministers. President Sleiman has called for a new round of consultations with the parliamentary blocs to take place September 15-16. (We expect these consultations to have concluded a few hours before your arrival.) ¶4. (C) It is expected that Hariri will be renominated as PM-designate and that the process of government formation will begin anew. However, it is unclear how Hariri's approach to cabinet negotiations will differ this time or whether he will ultimately be successful. For the first time since the elections, Aoun's powerful Shi'a ally, Hizballah, this week explicitly called for a "blocking third" for the minority within the cabinet. (Note: The "blocking third" concept provided de facto veto authority to the opposition ministers of te cabinet as a result of the May 2008 Doha Agreeent that ended a protracted political stalemate an violence. End note.) We have underscored in our public statements that the formation of the government is for the Lebanese to carry out in accordance with their political process, without outside interference. We have also expressed the hope that this impasse will be resolved quickly and that all parties will continue to respect the outcome of the June elections, which produced a clear parliamentary majority committed to Lebanon's independence. UNSCR 1701: WEAPONS CACHE EXPLOSION, ROCKET LAUNCHES TEST LAF, UNIFIL -------------- ¶5. (C) President Sleiman supports full implementation of UNSCR 1701, and previously hinted at the possibility of indirect talks with Israel if certain conditions were met, though probably "not now" (reftel). Since your last visit, however, the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) and UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) have faced two challenges to their mandate in the south. In mid-July, a weapons cache believed to belong to Hizballah exploded in the town of Khirbet Selim. In the days that followed, minor skirmishes between UNIFIL and LAF soldiers and the local population occurred, but were contained. Both UNIFIL and the LAF conducted investigations after the incident; the final UNIFIL report was released to the parties last week. ¶6. (C) On September 11, three rockets were launched from an area of southern Lebanon into northern Israel. Israel notified UNIFIL headquarters of the launch and its retaliation with defensive shelling. Caretaker Prime Minister Fouad Siniora condemned the attacks and reiterated Lebanon's continued commitment to UNSCR 1701 in a statement released later the same day after consultations with President Sleiman. (The Al Qaida-affiliated Ziad al Jarrah group later claimed responsibility for the launch from south Lebanon.) Lebanese leaders have continually praised UNIFIL and its cooperation with the LAF. In January, Sleiman asserted, "I will not allow southern Lebanon to become a rocket launching pad," in response to similar attacks that followed the December/January Israeli offensive in Gaza. We have noted that these incidents, along with the explosion of the Hizballah weapons depot in July, highlight the urgent need to bring all arms in Lebanon under the sole control of the state. We have also underscored to the GOL that we believe the surest way to set the stage for eventual peace is to complete UNSCR 1701 implementation. PALESTINIAN REFUGEES: GOL AGAINST "TAWTEEN," NAHR AL-BARID CAMP RECONSTRUCTION STALLED -------------- ¶7. (C) The GOL remains opposed to permanent resettlement ("tawteen") of Palestinian refugees in Lebanon. Lebanon is host to twelve Palestinian refugee camps with a UN-estimated refugee population of approximately 400,000. One of the largest camps, Nahr al-Barid (NAB),was nearly destroyed in its entirety during a conflict with extremists from the Salafist group, Fatah al-Islam, in 2007. More than two years later, reconstruction of the camp has yet to begin. Preparation work was stopped in late August when a "stop work" injunction was filed by opposition leader Michel Aoun, alledgedly to protect a recently discovered archaeological site in the camp. Demands on basic infrastructure and other camp services have increased at the remaining camps due to the absorption of residents from NAB. GOL POISED TO JOIN UNSC IN 2010 -------------- ¶8. (C) Lebanon expects to join the UN Security Council as the non-permanent representative of the Arab states in January 2010 for a two-year term. President Sleiman views the opportunity to sit on the Council as important -- and necessary -- to position Lebanon as a key player in the region. Sleiman's diplomatic advisor, Naji Abi Assi, told us that Lebanon's votes on the council will be in line with its sovereign interests, first, then the interests of the regional bloc. We assess that the questions debated by the UNSC, particularly those related to the region, could place significant domestic pressures on the GOL. SISON