HARIRI WITHDRAWS AS PM-DESIGNATE AND BLAMES THE

C O N F I D E N T I A L BEIRUT 001005 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/09/2019 TAGS: PGOV PINS KDEM LE SUBJECT: HARIRI WITHDRAWS AS PM-DESIGNATE AND BLAMES THE OPPOSITION REF: BEIRUT 1000 Classified By: Ambassador Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) Saad Hariri withdrew as prime minister-designate on September 10 and announced that he was stepping down in the interests of the nation to break the cycle that prevented his forming a national unity government. Caretaker PM Fouad Siniora told us the move is an attempt to relaunch negotiations and predicted that President Sleiman will name a new PM-designate ("Hariri -- there's no one else") before departing for the UN General Assembly next week. Siniora, who was echoed by Hariri advisor Nader Hariri, counseled the U.S. and Saudi Arabia to stay out of the debate and predicted that Hariri might press for a technocratic cabinet. Meanwhile, Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) negotiators, whom Hariri blamed for frustrating him with unreasonable demands, accused him of refusing to engage with them and assessed that the conflict had become about personal pride instead of the issues. FPM ally Hizballah renewed its call for a blocking third in the cabinet. End summary. HARIRI BASHES OPPOSITION IN WITHDRAWAL -------------- ¶2. (C) Following 73 days spent attempting to form a government, Saad Hariri visited the president at his Beiteddine summer palace and withdrew as prime minister-designate on September 10. In remarks following his stepping down, Hariri described his proposed cabinet as "a true opportunity that has been wasted" and announced that he was withdrawing in the interests of the nation to break the vicious cycle that prevented his forming a unity government. While he said he hoped to relaunch a dialog with the opposition, Hariri also criticized his rivals for treating the offices of the PM-designate and the president as a "mailbox" useful only to receive their demands. The decision, while telegraphed by Hariri's camp both publicly and privately ever since he proposed his cabinet to Sleiman on September 7 (reftel),had been postponed for several days by Sleiman and Progressive Socialist Party leader Walid Jumblatt to allow space for continued negotiations. Hariri had reached a general agreement in advance with Amal and Hizballah, but he had been unable to find common ground with the Christian FPM. HARIRI'S CONFIDANTS PREDICT TECHNOCRATIC GOVERNMENT -------------- 
 ¶3. (C) Caretaker PM Fouad Siniora, who met with the Ambassador immediately following Hariri's announcement, described the move as an attempt to re-launch negotiations. Following a new vote by parliament, the PM predicted, Sleiman will appoint a new PM-designate -- "Hariri," Siniora said, "there's no one else" -- before departing for the UN General Assembly. Siniora assessed that Hariri will be "guaranteed" the 71 votes of his majority bloc, plus the votes of Nabih Berri's Amal party. Siniora counseled the U.S. and Saudi Arabia to maintain their distance from the debate, although he warned that the Syrians are "waiting to be called in" to meddle in the issue. Even though he admitted that not having a government is a concern, Siniora pointed out that allowing the opposition to impose "unconstitutional" conditions is even worse. Hizballah knows it cannot return to the streets with arms like May 7, 2008, he underscored. Siniora predicted that Hariri might press for a technocratic cabinet. Nader Hariri, meanwhile, told polchief following Hariri's announcement that he expects the president to call next week for a new PM-designate, whom he predicted would be Saad again. "We won't start from where we ended," claimed Nader. "We'll be totally outside the box, possibly with a technocratic cabinet." OPPOSITION FPM LAYS BLAME ON PERSONAL PRIDE -------------- ¶4. (C) A fatalistic Gebran Bassil told polchief hours before Hariri's announcement that he expected negotiations to fail because the PM-designate proposed a cabinet only to demonize the FPM and "waste time." The caretaker telecoms minister and FPM negotiator claimed that he had offered to concede the FPM's demand for the interior ministry in exchange for "a concession, any concession" from Hariri, but he never received a response. Although Hariri accused the FPM and its stubborn leader Michel Aoun of being demanding and intransigent, Bassil claimed that the party could give no more after conceding its demand of proportional representation, thus cutting its ministerial share from eight to five. "He's not planning to form a government," Bassil predicted of Hariri, adding, "what will change (in a second round)? He will impose new conditions? We will too. It solves nothing. We wasted 2005-08 to get a unity government, so why are we creating new problems?" The lack of a government is in no one's interests, Bassil claimed, describing concern that a vacuum would lead to a deterioration in the security situation. FPM Ibrahim Kanaan reiterated Bassil's position to us and added his assessment that the conflict had become about personal pride. Immediately following Hariri's statement, Hizballah Caretaker Labor Minister Mohammad Fneish renewed the party's call for a blocking vote, saying, "The opposition wants to participate in the new cabinet on the basis of the guaranteeing-third vote in a direct or indirect way since the 15-10-5 cabinet formula was the most concession we can make." Amal MP Ali Bazzi told poloffs on September 10 that "the Lebanese have failed in their first attempt to make their own government," and he caste the blame on the Lebanese tendency to curse outside interference while simultaneously inviting foreigners to resolve domestic disputes. COMMENT -------------- ¶5. (C) While Hariri may have felt he had no option but to shuffle the deck and start over, it is not clear that he will possess more political leverage now than he did three months ago, immediately after winning the election. Siniora implied that Hariri's move is an opportunity to change the terms of the debate, even to the extent of reworking the 15-10-5 formula and going for a different type of cabinet. The opposition's bluster aside, the rug has also been pulled from beneath it by Hariri's move. SISON