SAO DELAYS LOSE SALES AND COST AMERICAN JOBS FOR U.S.

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 06 BEIJING 000601

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

STATE FOR CA/P; CA/VO/L/C; EAP/CM; EEB/CBA; EEB/ESC; ISN/CB; L; M;
OES
STATE PASS USTR FOR STRATFORD
CIA FOR DCI FROM CHARGE D'AFFAIRES

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: CMGT CVIS OEXC ECON EAIR CH
SUBJECT: SAO DELAYS LOSE SALES AND COST AMERICAN JOBS FOR U.S.
AVIATION COMPANIES

REF: (A) BEIJING 435,
(B) BEIJING 174, 08 BEIJING 3055, 08 SHANGHAI 133
(C) BEIJING 130
(D) 08 BEIJING 3116
(E) STATE 7490
(F) STATE 20889

BEIJING 00000601 001.2 OF 006



This cable is Sensitive but Unclassified (SBU) and for official use
only. Not for transmission outside USG channels. Not for internet
distribution.


1. (SBU) SUMMARY. U.S. aviation companies point to current SAO
processing times of 16 weeks or longer as an unreasonable threat to
U.S. exports, U.S. jobs, and the chances of recovery for their
communities in the U.S. The industry has grown remarkably over the
past 5 years in China, and has successfully organized to engage
local customers, officials and business partners. But it cannot
anticipate visa application requests four months in advance, even
with its longest sales cycles. SAO delays, caused by insufficient
staffing at at least one clearing agency, prevent U.S. firms from
reselling cancelled aircraft orders to eager Chinese buyers, and
limit their ability to mitigate the impacts of the global economic
crisis on their business, and create opportunities for foreign
aviation competitors, including especially Airbus. At the current
16 weeks of longer, SAO delays will also hinder cooperation with
Chinese suppliers, and could lead to global delays of key aircraft.
As SAO delays and the global economic crisis grew in 2008, U.S.
aviation exports to China fell by USD 2 billion. The current state
of affairs has led this flagship U.S. industry to seriously question
the responsiveness of their own government to American business
needs. While the business community will welcome the change in SAO
Mantis validities for Chinese nationals announced on March 5 (reftel
F),they will continue to face inordinate processing delays until
additional personnel are added by at least one clearing agency to
resolve the backlog. END SUMMARY.

AVIATION EXPORTS GROW RAPIDLY; U.S. COMPANIES ENGAGED
-------------- --------------


2. (SBU) In 2008, U.S. aviation exports to China totaled USD 5.1
billion, down from their 2007 peak of USD 7.1 billion in 2007, but
more than double the value in 2004. (NOTE: Aviation exports
defined as U.S. domestic exports of HTS code 88 - aircraft,
spacecraft, and parts thereof.) In spite of the decline in 2009,
since 2004 aviation exports grew at a compound annual growth rate of
27 percent, exceeding the 20 percent growth rate of overall exports
to China. Moreover, the U.S. runs a large trade surplus with China
in aviation, reaching USD 4.9 billion in 2008 after peaking at USD
7.0 billion the previous year. While market access issues remain,
aviation has clearly been a sector where the Chinese recognize the
U.S. comparative and technical advantage and value U.S. products
highly.

U.S. AVIATION TRADE WITH CHINA
--------------
Units: USD mil. 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
-------------- -------------- -------------- -------------- --------------
U.S. EXPORTS 1,948 4,339 6,047 7,160 5,079
U.S. IMPORTS 80 85 134 192 192
U.S. SURPLUS 1,868 4,254 5,913 6,968 4,887
SOURCE: USITC. Domestic exports at FAS value, imports for
consumption at customs value. Statistic for harmonized tariff code
88: aircraft, spacecraft and parts thereof.

JOBS IN FIFTY STATES

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--------------


3. (SBU) U.S. companies in China are well organized through the
Aviation Cooperation Program (ACP) of the American Chamber of
Commerce (AmCham),which is partially funded by a US Trade
Development Agency (USTDA) grant. U.S. companies' activity in China
goes far beyond the big names of Boeing, United Technologies, and
General Electric. It includes general aviation manufacturers
Textron (Cessna and Bell Helicopter),Hawker-Beechcraft, and Cirrus;
systems and avionics manufacturers Honeywell, Rockwell Collins,
Hamilton Sundstrand, Parker Aerospace and Moog; air traffic control
systems vendor Telephonics; and airport design companies Leo A. Daly
and HOK; as well as major U.S. airlines. Since 2005, ACP's
Executive Management Development Training (EMDT) program has sent
nearly 100 trainees from the Civil Aviation Authority of China
(CAAC) to the U.S. to learn about the U.S. aviation industry. The
result is a very broad-based and close relationship with Chinese
regulators, airlines, and local aviation companies, helping to keep
the door to China's burgeoning aviation market open. But SAO delays
of 16 weeks or more have begun to undermine the good work the
industry has done in cultivating relationships in China. It is not
exaggeration to say jobs are created or lost in all fifty states
depending on the health of this important industry. The following
examples illustrate firsthand the problems SAO delay pose for their
business.

BIG BURDEN ON BOEING'S BUSINESS
--------------


4. (SBU) Boeing Commercial Airplanes Group was recently forced to
delay a 777 freighter delivery to China due to an SAO delay,
resulting in delayed revenue in the range of USD 250 million (list
price). The 777 was to be delivered in mid-February 2009, but
required an inspection by CAAC Airworthiness Division. The CAAC
airworthiness inspection team leader applied for his U.S. visa on
Oct. 20, 2008. His application was tagged for SAO concerns and he
was requested to provide additional information, which he did on
Oct. 27. Boeing checked on the status six weeks later on Jan. 9,
2009, but was told that SAO administrative processing was taking
eight to ten weeks. With only a few weeks till inspection, and
unable to clarify when the inspector's visa would be approved,
Boeing was forced to postpone inspection and delivery, which will
likely push revenue into the following quarter. Even America's
largest aircraft manufacturer had not anticipated the selection of a
CAAC airworthiness inspector for SAO concerns, nor such a long
delay.


5. (SBU) Boeing has a National Development and Reform Commission
(NDRC) delegation slated for travel in April 2009, which will work
on implementation of an MOU with Boeing on aviation safety and
efficiency. The Embassy will need to request expedited SAO
processing since key members of the mission from NDRC and CAAC are
those who actually approve vendor selection by Chinese airlines and
will help determine the sale of up to 150 aircraft valued at USD 10
billion. Given the group's composition, with leading officials from
a wide range of agencies, it is not practically possible to arrange
their travel 16 weeks or more in advance. To do so would have
required they begin the application process nearly one-half year
ago. Chinese government officials have their own procedures for
official travel. One aviation contact asks, "How easy would it be
for a U.S. Government official to gain approval and process their
travel more than four months in advance?"

THE LIMITS OF TOLERANCE
--------------


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6. (SBU) According to Kenneth Yata of Boeing China, "A four month
lead time is simply unacceptable for our customers and suppliers.
At some point, they will simply say 'enough is enough, we can do
business with the Europeans, Canadians, Israelis and Russians.' In
the early 1990s, Boeing had a 90 percent market share in China,
versus 5 percent for Airbus. Today, Airbus is up to 30 percent,
Boeing down to 50 percent, and other vendors such as Bombardier have
entered. We want to partner with Chinese companies, but SAO
processing times are making the return disproportionate to their
efforts to work with us." Yata is appreciative of the Embassy's
efforts to expedite SAO processing, but fears the lengthening
approval process has jeopardized so much travel that neither Boeing
nor the Embassy can reliably expedite so many travelers.

UNITED TECHNOLOGIES FIGHTS AN UPHILL BATTLE
--------------


7. (SBU) United Technologies Corporation (UTC) is a large American
aviation conglomerate, which includes Sikorsky (helicopters)
Schweizer (small aircraft),Pratt and Whitney (engines) and Hamilton
Sundstrand (aerospace systems). UTC sales in China and Hong Kong
were USD 2.7 billion in 2008, while exports from the U.S. to China
were USD 223 million. The company has been frustrated by SAO
delays, and has done its best to learn how to work within the
process. But Jim Gradoville, President of UTC's China Division,
observes that lengthening of SAO processing times over the past year
to more than 16 weeks is making it harder and harder to do business.



8. (SBU) In 2008, the Deputy General Manager of a UTC Sikorsky
helicopter joint-venture applied for a visa one month before a
critical supplier conference. His application was tagged for SAO
processing, and he did not get the visa until six weeks later and
was unable to attend the event. UTC training for CAAC staff at
Sikorsky and Schweizer was also cancelled in 2008 due to the group's
inability to receive their SAO clearance on time. The schedule had
not been easy to coordinate with the Sikorsky facility and FAA.
Sikorsky was forced to postpone dates for its suppliers' conference
four times in 2008 while it waited for Changhe Aircraft employees
SAOs to be approved. Ordinarily, the company would have moved ahead
as scheduled, but Changhe has become too important a supplier and
Sikorsky feared excluding them would harm their business
relationship.


9. (SBU) Sikorsky's first Chinese customer for a S-76 VVIP
helicopter applied in advance to take delivery of the aircraft in
November 2008. UTC had applied in advance, taking possible SAO
processing of three weeks into account, and the buyer's wife and his
company's aviation manager were indeed identified for SAO
processing. Unfortunately, processing time had grown to 6 weeks,
which made it impossible to travel according to schedule, which
delayed delivery. A French competitor has told this customer that
the Americans are just too difficult to deal with. Sikorsky knows
the customer wants to buy a second helicopter of this class, but
fears the SAO processing issue could tip the purchase to their
European competitor.

GIVING UP ON SALES TO CHINA?
--------------


10. (SBU) As-with many U.S. aviation companies, UTC has a broad
range of relationships with Aviation Industry Corporation of China
(AVIC). Since UTC knows that AVIC employees are likely SAO targets,
they generally no longer include them in any activities with less
than a three month lead time. This affects the company's planning
which would benefit from AVIC's participation, and hurts the

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company's relationships and competitiveness against European and
Russian vendors. Customers are well aware of the SAO hurdle, and
even if they are sold on a particular aircraft, many fear their
employees will not be able to attend essential training if they buy
a U.S. manufactured product.

SAOS THREATEN HOPES FOR SMALL AIRCRAFT VENDORS
-------------- -


11. (SBU) While China's commercial aviation market has been growing
rapidly, air space control and regulation have hampered the growth
of the general aviation (private airplane) sector. With the
Wenchuan Earthquake in May 2007, China's leadership and aviation
regulators became acutely aware of the deficiency in China's small
aircraft fleet. China had virtually no heavy-load helicopters to
assist relief efforts in remote communities in Sichuan Province.
Since that time, China has begun to consider accelerated purchases
of helicopters. Moreover, it is also considering opening airspace
control and regulation to allow development of a general aviation
sector which could assist with disaster relief in a national
emergency. This potential regulatory change is expected to create a
wave of new business opportunities for U.S. small airplane and
helicopter companies, from Wichita to Wisconsin.


12. (SBU) U.S. company Hawker-Beechcraft is a case in point. The
company recently opened a Beijing sales office to support its
growing China business. With over ten different small airplane
models, the company has been introducing its range of aircraft to
China through small sales, often for flight training applications.
They are averaging eight to ten sales per year, valued at roughly
USD 10 million per deal. Currently the number of airplanes is
small, but Regional Sales Director Matthew Liu says the potential
market for private aircraft is huge, and the Chinese have the money
to buy. While corporate jet business is facing cancellations in the
U.S., the China market continues to grow. Hawker-Beechcraft even
sees the opportunity to recover cancelled orders in the U.S., by
selling these aircraft in China.


13. (SBU) However, as Hawker-Beechcraft builds its business, each
new aircraft type requires certification by the Civil Aviation
Authority of China (CAAC). Hawker's sales cycle is typically six
months from order to delivery, but it has the chance to sell some of
its cancelled orders on an even tighter schedule of three to four
months. Unfortunately, such sales cycles do not offer much
opportunity to factor in a 12 to 16 week possible SAO processing
time, and SAOs could likely scuttle many of these deals. Hawker is
waiting for the visa application results for a CAAC team seeking to
inspect a new aircraft delivery to Shenzhen Airlines. If, as in
other cases, the inspector's application is submitted for an SAO, a
16 week delay for will dramatically postpone any delivery.

LONG WAIT TRANSLATES TO ANTI-AMERICAN SENTIMENT
-------------- --


14. (SBU) According to AmCham ACP Executive Director Joseph
Tymczyszyn, even when an SAO is finally cleared, the delays caused
by the processing can contribute to anti-American sentiment among
key Chinese officials. In 2002-03, a CAAC Air Traffic Management
Bureau (ATMB) official was delayed due to SAO. The busy official
made several attempts to reschedule, but after more than 6 months,
the process was never concluded. The official withdrew the
application in disgust, and stated she would rather work with the
Europeans and Japanese. The official did eventually reapply in
2004-05, when the application was delayed for an SAO but ultimately
approved in time for her trip. Unfortunately, other members of her
delegation were not cleared in time, and the trip had to be

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postponed.


15. (SBU) Since those experiences, the official has been promoted
within ATMB, where she is a Deputy Director General (DDG) in charge
of new technology and purchasing air traffic control (ATC) equipment
for all of China. Her office also determines ATC standards. U.S.
ATC vendor Telephonics initially had a good position with airports
in southern and central China. But acquisitions in the past several
years, including upgrades at China's three largest commercial
airports, have been given to a French vendor. ATMB also approves
landing slots for U.S. airlines at China's airports, and timing of
arrivals and departures can greatly impact an airlines success. It
doesn't help to have key officials predisposed to dislike the U.S.

HUNDREDS OF TRAVELERS MUST ABANDON TRAVEL
--------------


16. (SBU) Beijing Consular Section estimates SAO processing
currently takes 16 weeks or longer. Since October 1, 2008, Beijing
has turned away more than 615 business travelers with inflexible
dates of travel at the time of their interview due to SAO delay,
including nearly 200 in the past 30 days. During the month of
February 2009, the NIV section turned away 25 percent of all B1/B2
business travelers with a technology background and SAO requests
were never sent. (NOTE: Additional reporting on SAO processing
statistics and its impact on travel to the U.S. will follow in
septel.)

AVIATION COMPANIES WANT TO BE GOOD CORPORATE CITIZENS
-------------- --------------


17. (SBU) U.S. aviation companies have been cooperative with the
Embassy and work hard to cooperate with visa and SAO requirements.
Many are active in the American Chamber of Commerce referral
program, and do their best to stay up to date on changes in
procedures and processing times. But even in the best of
circumstances the nature of their business does not allow them to
have customers, government officials and business partners begin
preparations for travel to the U.S. five or more months in advance
to overcome a four month SAO process. Worse yet, in turbulent
economic times growth in China offers them a chance to mitigate the
downturn in other markets, helping them to the maintain production
and jobs in the U.S. Inordinately long SAO delays hinder their
flexibility to make such deals. The current state of affairs makes
them question the responsiveness of their own government to American
business needs.

AVIATION INDUSTRY SUGGESTS IMPROVEMENTS
--------------


18. (SBU) U.S. aviation companies deeply understand USG concerns
about technology transfer. The competitive nature of their industry
and China's own efforts to build commercial aircraft means they deal
with it every day. But they have two practical suggestions for the
SAO process which they believe would allow them to continue their
cooperation, while still building a healthy business.
(1) Create a special program for key Chinese government and aviation
industry officials, executives, procurement or technical
representatives who could be pre-approved for travel in advance.
The Aviation Cooperation Program from AmCham could help prepare a
list of 200-300 key officials, and subject it to annual review.
(2) When the SAO backlog is current, work with U.S. aviation
companies and AmCham to get the message out to their customers,
government contacts and business partners in order to counter the
angst which has accumulated.


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19. COMMENT. Embassy Beijing welcomes the change in SAO Mantis
validities for Chinese nationals announced by the Department on
March 5 (reftel F). This new policy will allow visas to be issued
for a full year with multiple entry. Our Consular Section has
already begun to inform key U.S. business contacts of the change.
While we anticipate aviation vendors will also welcome the
announcement, these companies still face a four month processing
time for pending visas until clearing agencies devote sufficient
resources to eliminate the current backlog and stay current going
forward. END COMMENT.

PICCUTA