AF/PAK: CHINESE SCHOLARS SHARE VIEWS WITH U.S.

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIJING 003347 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/15/2029 TAGS: EAID PGOV PREL SNAR EINV PARM PTER ECON MASS PK, AF, CH SUBJECT: AF/PAK: CHINESE SCHOLARS SHARE VIEWS WITH U.S. DELEGATION REF: A. 09 BEIJING 3331 ¶B. 09 BEIJING 3332 Classified By: Acting Political Minister Counselor Ben Moeling. Reasons 1.4 (b,d) ¶1. (C) Summary: PRC scholars from three government-affiliated think tanks told Deputy Special Representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan Dan Feldman November 12 that the United States needs to demonstrate its resolve in the fight against the Taliban and speed up the pace of reconstruction in Afghanistan. The scholars expressed support for U.S. efforts to support political stability and economic development in the region, while urging the United States to do more to counter the range of extremist groups in Afghanistan and Pakistan, and to show support for China's fight against Uighur separatists who may be sheltering in the region. They stressed the need for confidence building measures, both within the region and between the U.S. and China, to overcome tensions between Afghanistan, Pakistan, and their neighbors. Deputy SRAP Feldman stressed the U.S. commitment to defeating Al Qaeda and its allies, explained that the U.S. does not intend to set up long-term military bases in the region, and encouraged China to cooperate with the U.S. on reconstruction and development assistance to Afghanistan and Pakistan. Scholar Urges U.S. to Show Resolve, Speed up Reconstruction -------------- -------------- ¶2. (C) Ministry of State Security-affiliated China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations (CICIR) scholar Hu Shisheng said the United States must show resolve in the fight against the Taliban and speed up the pace of reconstruction in Afghanistan. Hu warned that a lack of U.S. resolve would embolden the Taliban and dampen other countries' willingness to cooperate. He urged the United States to intensify reconstruction efforts during the winter, while Taliban fighters were "hibernating" in madrasas. Hu also outlined a number of other recommendations to U.S. policymakers: 1) encourage the restoration of tribal militias and make full use of these militias in the fight against the Taliban; 2) increase training of Afghan forces; 3) provide economic incentives to Taliban fighters, many of whom are fighting for money rather than ideology and could be recruited into the Afghan national army if offered higher salaries; 4) increase financial support to build a modern education system in Afghanistan; 5) encourage Afghanistan to improve relations with Iran, thereby diluting Pakistan's influence on Afghanistan; 6) internationalize the Durand border between Afghanistan and Pakistan; and 7) vigorously support Pakistan in its fight against the Taliban. Hu acknowledged that China should do more to support education in Afghanistan, noting that China only provided seven scholarships a year to Afghan students. China Supports U.S. in Afghanistan but Worries About Uighur Separatists -------------- -------------- ¶3. (C) CICIR scholar Fu Xiaoqiang told the delegation China sincerely wanted to cooperate with the U.S. in Afghanistan, but added the U.S. must consider China's "greatest security concern," Uighur terrorist groups in Xinjiang. Fu argued that U.S. support of the World Uighur Congress "diluted U.S.-China strategic confidence" and led China to question U.S. intentions in South Asia. CICIR Vice President Yang Mingjie said the United States and China could cooperate in Afghanistan and Pakistan, but needed to consider the role that regional powers Iran and India might play. Yang suggested that the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) could play a more important role in Afghanistan and that NATO and SCO should find "a new format of cooperation." U.S. Should Keep Af/Pak Linked, Focus More on Hizb ut-Tahrir -------------- -------------- 4.(C) CICIR Scholar Fang Jinying supported the U.S. strategy linking Afghanistan and Pakistan, noting the transnational nature of terrorist threats and close connections between extremist groups in the two countries. She described Pakistan as increasingly unstable with a growing Islamic BEIJING 00003347 002 OF 002 identity, commenting that these dangerous trends would not be easy to reverse. She urged the United States to pay more attention to Hizb ut-Tahrir, arguing that the group has a broad network in the United States and Europe and headquarters in London. Fang said another source of instability was the Turkish mafia, which she asserted was heavily involved in exporting heroin from South Asia to Europe and importing weapons into Afghanistan and Pakistan. (Comment: This is the first time Post has heard such an allegation.) U.S. Responds -------------- ¶5. (C) Responding to the CICIR scholars' comments and suggestions, D/SRAP Feldman stressed the U.S. commitment to stability in Afghanistan and strong U.S. support for Pakistan's fight against extremists. He said the U.S. strategy would continue to link Afghanistan and Pakistan and noted that improving education and training Afghan police and soldiers were at the forefront of the strategy. Feldman welcomed increased Chinese assistance for Afghanistan and Pakistan, stressing the importance of donor coordination to avoid redundancies. Regional Strategic Framework Needed -------------- ¶6. (C) In a separate November 12 meeting, MFA-affiliated China Institute for International Studies (CIIS) South Asia scholar Rong Ying noted that unlike the United States, the PRC government lacked an effective interagency structure to address cross-cutting regional problems, and that ministry stove-piping hampered PRC efforts to effectively address these issues. Professor Rong emphasized that stability remains China's foreign policy imperative in South Asia and suggested that regional actors in South Asia create a broad strategic framework that would help define regional relations and guide reconstruction and security efforts. Professor Rong also stressed that the combination of international attention to Afghanistan, including India's increasing assistance and diplomatic profile there, coupled with significant U.S. influence in South Asia, left Pakistan in a vulnerable position strategically. Rong said Pakistan needed "reassurance" from its neighbors, and said that absent any strategic regional framework that reinforced positive relations among regional actors, China would feel "uncomfortable" applying pressure on Pakistan to address terrorism threats, when the Pakistanis viewed India as their primary security concern. U.S.-PRC Need To Build Mutual Trust -------------- ¶7. (C) At the same November 12 meeting, PRC State Council-affiliated Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Institute of American Studies Deputy Director Gu Guoliang explained that China was struggling with calls both domestically and internationally to take a more prominent role in global affairs. While China had taken a larger role on economic issues, discussions of a "G2" and other arrangements that stress China's larger international profile constituted a challenge to PRC leaders, many of whom continued to view China as a developing country that needed to focus on internal issues and therefore take a "low profile" approach in foreign policy. Gu suggested that the United States and China needed to build mutual trust, and while noting potential areas for cooperation on non-proliferation issues, he stressed that negative assessments of the PRC in the U.S. Quadrennial Defense and Nuclear Posture Reviews hampered bilateral relations, particularly between the two countries' militaries, and also limited cooperation in addressing regional concerns. GOLDBERG