PRC/SUDAN: MFA WELCOMES SUDAN STRATEGY; CONCERNED

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIJING 002982 SIPDIS STATE FOR EAP/CM AND S/USSES E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/28/2029 TAGS: PREL PGOV KPKO SU CH SUBJECT: PRC/SUDAN: MFA WELCOMES SUDAN STRATEGY; CONCERNED ABOUT UNILATERAL DECLARATION OF INDEPENDENCE BY SOUTH REF: STATE 109669 Classified By: Deputy Political Section Chief Ben Moeling, reasons 1.4 (b, d) ¶1. (C) Summary: The PRC welcomed the new U.S. strategy on Sudan, concurring that the situation in Darfur and implementation of Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) must be addressed simultaneously to achieve sustainable long-term success, according to an MFA official. Western government statements on the likelihood of independence for Southern Sudan could inappropriately influence the outcome of the 2011 referendum, the MFA official said, and the PRC was particularly concerned that the United States might eventually support a unilateral declaration of independence by the South. The Chinese believed that, in the event that the referendum were to favor an independent state in the South, rapid economic reconstruction would be necessary to prevent Southern Sudan from becoming a failed state. End Summary. ¶2. (C) MFA West Asian and North African Department Sudan Division Director Feng Biao told POLOFF October 28 in response to reftel points that the PRC welcomed the new U.S. strategy on Sudan and was particularly supportive of U.S. engagement in "frank dialogue" with the Government of Sudan (GoS). Director Feng stated that constructive dialogue and consultation among all the parties involved in the Sudan conflict would benefit Sudan and that Sudan would also benefit from increasing its cooperation with the international community. Feng also concurred that the situation in Darfur and Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) implementation must be addressed simultaneously, stating that addressing either separately would result in unsustainable solutions for both. ¶3. (C) Feng said that both the GoS and the Government of Southern Sudan (GoSS) had welcomed the new U.S. strategy, which China hoped would help ease tensions in the region. The GoS leadership had hoped for good relations with the Obama administration, and the new strategy was a step in that direction. PRC Will Respect the Outcome of the 2011 Referendum -------------- -------------- ¶4. (C) Stating that "all of the people of Sudan" should have a voice in deciding its future, Director Feng affirmed that China would support the result of the 2011 referendum, either a united Sudan or two states, as long as that result was reached in accordance with the terms of the CPA. Director Feng said the PRC interpreted recent statements by Special Envoys from western countries to indicate that independence for Southern Sudan was a foregone conclusion. He said such statements could inappropriately prejudice the outcome of the 2011 referendum. ¶5. (C) Feng expressed particular concern over remarks U.S. Special Envoy for Sudan Gen. Scott Gration reportedly made to PRC Special Representative Liu Guijin at the October 6 Special Envoy (E6) conference in Moscow indicating that while the United States did not prefer a unilateral declaration of independence by Southern Sudan, the United States would eventually support such an action should it occur. Director Feng argued that such a unilateral action would be outside the terms of the CPA, creating instability and possibly provoking a military attack from the GoS. He underscored that establishing and maintaining security and stability were necessary to achieve successful implementation of the CPA and that "chaos" in Sudan would negatively affect its nine BEIJING 00002982 002 OF 002 regional neighbors. Economic Development Key to Preventing a Failed State -------------- -------------- ¶6. (C) Director Feng said one of the keys to sustaining a referendum result creating two separate states was economic reconstruction in the South, an area that had "almost nothing" in terms of economic activity. Absent immediate economic development, the South was at risk of becoming a failed state. In such an eventuality, Feng warned, the states that had supported independence for the South would be responsible for the repercussions of its failure. ¶7. (C) Feng reiterated that the PRC supported using peaceful means to address current tensions and long-term instability in the region. Success in Sudan would come through dialogue and consultation among all the relevant parties. ¶8. (U) Tripoli minimize considered. HUNTSMAN