PRC/IRAN: PREMIER WEN PUSHES RAHIMI ON DIALOGUE;

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIJING 002932 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/22/2034 TAGS: PREL PARM ENRG PTER MNUC IR CH SUBJECT: PRC/IRAN: PREMIER WEN PUSHES RAHIMI ON DIALOGUE; CHINA URGES COOPERATION WITH IAEA, P5-PLUS-1 Classified By: Political Minister Counselor Aubrey Carlson. Reasons 1.4 (b/d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: On the margins of Shanghai Cooperation Organization high-level meetings October 15, PRC Premier Wen Jiabao urged Iranian First Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi to move forward with direct talks with the United States and offered PRC support to do so, according to an MFA official. Wen reportedly reiterated that Iran had the right to peaceful nuclear technology, but stressed China's opposition to Iranian development of nuclear weapons. Our MFA contact claimed that China recognizes the importance of seizing the present opportunity and that the Iranian side did as well. The PRC assesses that Iran's willingness to negotiate over the nuclear issue comes from Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, not President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, but the Iranian regime remains divided over the June election and its aftermath. Our contact urged the U.S. to downplay sanctions and seek positive, even if symbolic, benefits to provide Iran in response to progress in the talks. China has been pushing Iran to improve its cooperation with the IAEA and assesses that Iran will make good on its offer to allow inspectors into the Qom nuclear site. Beijing believes that Iran's nuclear technology is not as advanced "as some believe." Iranian Embassy officials in Beijing expressed satisfaction to the Chinese with the outcomes of the October 1 P5-plus-1-plus-Iran meeting and were particularly positive on the bilateral meeting with the U.S. side, according to the MFA. Our contact argued that a constituency within Iranian society that advocates flexibility on the nuclear issue is a force in politics, but that the government will need any negotiations to accrue benefits to Iran given the strength of the conservative camp. END SUMMARY. Wen Pushes Iranian Vice President on Nuclear Issue -------------- -------------- ¶2. (C) MFA West Asian Affairs Department Iran Division Deputy Director Ni Ruchi told POLOFF October 21 that Premier Wen Jiabao's October 15 meeting with Iranian First Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi had been brief due to the press of other issues at the SCO Summit. Ni said that the Chinese side had raised the nuclear issue and urged Iran to cooperate with the international community. Wen had pushed the Iranians to move forward with direct talks with the United States and offered Chinese support to do so. Wen had stressed that while Iran had a right to the peaceful use of nuclear technology, China opposed Iran's development of nuclear weapons. Ni claimed that Rahimi had responded positively on prospects for talks with the United States and said that the Iranians were considering how best to do move forward with dialogue. Beijing Wants to Seize the Moment, as Does Tehran -------------- -------------- ¶3. (C) Ni emphasized the importance for China of the October 1 bilateral talks between the U.S. and Iran in Geneva. He noted that China had a very positive outlook for improved U.S. relations with Iran, a development that would be helpful for progress on the nuclear issue. China recognized the importance of seizing the present opportunity, Ni said, given the poor long-term prospects for Iran to improve relations with the international community should progress fail to materialize in the near future. He said that the Iranian side also understood the uniqueness of this opportunity and the importance of demonstrating progress. He said that Beijing assessed that Iran was willing to make a deal with the U.S. on the nuclear issue, adding that this willingness came from the Supreme Leader, and that President Ahmadinejad was not the decision-maker on the issue. Ni cautioned, however, that the Iranian regime remained divided over the June election and its aftermath, complicating efforts by the P5-plus-1 to negotiate with the regime. Trust-Building a Priority for PRC -------------- ¶4. (C) Ni stressed the need at present to find ways to increase Iran's trust in the intentions of the P5-plus-1. He urged the United States to de-emphasize the push for additional sanctions and to seek positive, even if symbolic, benefits to give Iran in response to progress in the talks. He expressed concern that increased pressure from the international community would strengthen the consensus of hard-liners in the Iranian regime. Ni reported that Iranian diplomats had claimed that while they had a high degree of confidence in President Obama's intentions, they remained suspicious about his ability to deliver on those intentions given political realities in the United States. He argued that China's political efforts to persuade Iran to negotiate BEIJING 00002932 002 OF 002 in good faith represented an important contribution to the P5-plus-1 effort to deal with the nuclear issue. PRC Urges IAEA Cooperation, Downplays Technical Progress -------------- -------------- ¶5. (C) Ni said that China had been pushing Iran to improve its cooperation with the IAEA and take a positive attitude in order to allow the agency to develop trust in Iran's intentions. Beijing understood that technical meetings at the IAEA this week had achieved progress, Ni said, adding that China hoped to see progress on the Tehran Research Reactor fuel proposal. China assessed that Iran would allow inspectors into the Qom site, Ni said. He stressed, too, that Iran's nuclear technology was not as advanced "as some believe," and that Iran's overall level of industrial development represented a serious impediment to development of nuclear technology and particularly to weaponization. He noted that of the 5,000 centrifuges in Iran, less than half were actually in operation. Iranian Side Upbeat on October 1 Meeting -------------- ¶6. (C) Ni said Iranian embassy contacts in Beijing had expressed satisfaction with the outcomes of the October meeting in Geneva, calling the event a "success." Though concerned that sitting down with the U.S. would be "a mistake," the Iranians had left the U.S.-Iran bilateral meeting wanting to continue the process. Ni suggested that some within the Iranian regime understood the need for a change in political direction, particularly after the difficult June election. He also reported that the Iranians were putting renewed focus on creating an effective plan for economic development. MFA: U.S. Should Incentivize, Reward Iranian Progress -------------- -------------- ¶7. (C) On direct U.S.-Iran talks, Ni urged the U.S. side to make a clear statement abandoning the notion of regime change. He suggested seeking a "cooperative partnership" with Iran on shared concerns such as security in Iraq and Afghanistan, and in doing so, recognizing Iran as a major regional power. He recommended offering concrete and immediate benefits, especially economic incentives and a relaxation of existing sanctions, in response to positive overtures by the Iranian side. These efforts could start small, he added, but should be focused on sending a clear signal of sincere intentions to Tehran. Iranian Leadership Feels Street Pressure on Negotiations -------------- -------------- ¶8. (C) Ni reported that based on his travel to Iran, considerable debate was taking place among ordinary Iranians over the utility of the nuclear program. Many Iranians did not see the use in having nuclear technology and saw it only as a source of problems, while others saw value in the possession of nuclear technology but were reconsidering this view because of progress in talks with the United States. In contrast, a more conservative constituency in Iran was disinclined to make any concessions to the international community on the nuclear issue. In light of this division in society, Ni argued, the Iranian leadership would not make concessions without meaningful and visible compensation. HUNTSMAN