C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIJING 002866

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/14/2029
TAGS: PHUM PREL PGOV CH EZ LO GE SCUL
SUBJECT: SUBJECT: SCHOLAR SAYS PRC EFFORTS TO CURB OVERSEAS
DISSIDENT ACTIVITIES VARY ACCORDING TO INFLUENCE OF
COUNTRIES INVOLVED

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Classified By: Classified By: Political Minister Counselor Aubrey Carls
on for reasons
1.4 (B/D)


1. (C) Summary: PRC efforts to curb Chinese dissident
activities abroad are directly proportional to PRC
perceptions of influence of the countries involved, according
to a Chinese scholar. For example, China will take some
action should its demands that no "controversial" figures
attend the October 14-18 Frankfurt Book Fair (where China is
the Guest of Honor) not be met, because China considers
Germany an influential country. In contrast, the PRC is
unlikely to go beyond harsh words in response to dissident
activities conducted in smaller countries, such as the Dalai
Lama's recent visits to Slovakia and the Czech Republic, our
contact asserted. German Embassy contacts confirmed Chinese
skittishness over dissident participation at the Frankfurt
Book Fair, while Czech and Slovak diplomats downplayed
repercussions over the Dalai Lama's visits. End Summary.

China to Make an Example of Germany If Offended
-------------- --


2. (C) In a September 29 meeting with PolOff, Euro-Asian
Social Development Research Institute European Studies
Professor Ma Xipu said that the high-profile nature of the
Frankfurt Book Fair and China's status as Guest of Honor had
prompted the PRC to insist to Fair organizers that nothing
objectionable be allowed to occur, particularly the
attendance of high-profile dissidents, such as the Dalai Lama
or Rebiya Kadeer. Professor Ma said provocative acts by
dissidents occurred in many countries, but Beijing reserved
retaliatory responses for influential countries, such as
Germany. Ma claimed that retaliation would be aimed at
sending a clear message to Germany that the bilateral
relationship could be impacted and the Book Fair itself
undermined. Any response would also be calculated to send a
clear message to the United

States, especially in light of a
possible future meeting between the President and the Dalai
Lama, Ma added. In contrast, Ma suggested, September visits
by the Dalai Lama to the Czech Republic and Slovakia were
unlikely to result in anything more than the strident voicing
of PRC objections.

Wrangling over Dai Qing's Participation
--------------


3. (C) In a September 24 meeting with PolOff, German Embassy
Cultural Affairs Officer Conrad Hassler said that the Book
Fair organizers had sent ten invitations to the General
Administration for Press and Publications (GAPP) for a
September 12 symposium titled "China and the World -
Perceptions and Realities" to be distributed to Chinese
invitees, including dissident author Dai Qing. Dai did not
receive her invitation, however, so the private PEN Society
issued her an invitation, which was required to obtain a
German visa. Dai's flight to the event was cancelled for
unknown reasons and she was forced to make last-minute
alternate travel arrangements, according to Hassler. He
added that a deal had been reached between the Book Fair
organizers and GAPP to allow Dai to attend as an audience
member but not make statements or appear on a discussion
panel. However, Dai did in fact participate in a panel that
included a former Chinese Ambassador to Germany, who left in
protest along with his whole delegation, although they all
eventually came back. Hassler said the PRC Ambassador later
characterized his walk-out as an act of "freedom of
expression."

Book Fair Organizers Caught Off Guard by Chinese Reaction
-------------- --------------


4. (C) Hassler said that the Book Fair organizers had not
anticipated these problems, noting that PRC objections had
not surfaced until recently even though the Book Fair had had
a contract with the GAPP since in 2007. With some 600 events
planned, and an official 500-person Chinese delegation led by
Vice President Xi Jinping expected, organizers did not wish
to create problems for their guest of honor country. Hassler

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stated Germany was firm in its position that the Book Fair
was a private event, and the German government could not make
some of the guarantees Beijing sought. For example, GAPP
officials at the 11th hour objected to the Taiwan stand at
the fair labeled (including in the printed catalogues)
"Taiwan" (which was also the case in past Fairs).

Opening Ceremony, Rebiya Kadeer Appearance Concern PRC
-------------- --------------


5. (C) Hassler said the PRC was especially nervous about the
Fair's opening ceremony October 14, adding that China had
still not publicly announced its keynote speaker for the
ceremony. Of particular concern to Chinese officials was the
potential attendance of dissident Rebiya Kadeer. Hassler
said that Rebiya Kadeer might attend as an author, but he did
not expect her to be featured at any events. Her
participation remained uncertain, however, as the Fair
organizers seemed unsure how to handle the situation,
according to Hassler.

PRC Strategy: Consistent in Words but Selective in Action
-------------- --------------


6. (C) Negative outcomes at the Book Fair would certainly
affect bilateral relations between Germany and China,
insisted MFA European Affairs Department Germany Division
Deputy Director Du Xiaohui September 29. Likewise, MFA
European Affairs Department East European Division Third
Secretary Li Hun told PolOff September 22, the Dalai Lama's
visits to Bratislava and Prague had affected bilateral
relations, especially with the Czech Republic because the
Czech Prime Minister had met with the Dalai Lama, whereas in
Slovakia he did not meet with any government officials.
Separately, Professor Ma assessed that negative effects on
relations with Slovakia and the Czech Republic would not go
beyond words, "since they were not big countries with
influence."

Slovaks, Czechs on Dalai Lama Visits: Life Goes On
-------------- --------------


7. (C) During a September 14 meeting with PolOff, Slovak
Embassy Political Counselor Miroslav Tomo insisted his
government had not known about the Dalai Lama's invitation
from NGOs until reported by the press, and the PRC had no
choice but to condemn the visit. However, he emphasized, no
Slovak leadership met with the Dalai Lama due to the fact
several economic bilateral initiatives were being pursued.
Tomo mentioned Slovakia's small size made it hard to attract
PRC interest, but bilateral economic ties, important to
Slovakia, were growing, particularly in automobiles and
electronics. In addition, he said the Slovakian Minister of
Transport would soon visit to discuss the building of
logistic and transport projects in China.

Czechs Not Worried
--------------


8. (C) Czech Embassy Political Counselor Ivana Grollova told
PolOff September 18 that the Czech government was not worried
about possible Chinese retaliation. She said the Chinese
rhetoric was the "same as usual," and since Czech economic
interests with China were almost entirely within the EU
framework, the Czech Republic could "hide behind" the EU,
minimizing bilateral economic effects.

HUNTSMAN