PRC/IRAN: SCHOLARS CONTINUE TO PUSH FOR COVERT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIJING 002793

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/29/2034
TAGS: PREL PARM ENRG PTER MNUC IR CH
SUBJECT: PRC/IRAN: SCHOLARS CONTINUE TO PUSH FOR COVERT
"KISSINGER" TALKS

Classified By: Political Minister Counselor Aubrey Carlson.
Reasons 1.4 (b/d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: While state-run media in China question the
motives of Western-led efforts to deal with the Iranian
nuclear issue and stress that dialogue is the only way
forward, two of China's leading Iran experts are doubtful the
P5-plus-1 engagement with Iran will bear fruit. They echoed
comments from other PRC academics suggesting the U.S. meet
covertly with Iran to achieve a breakthrough, similar to
Kissinger's 1971 talks with Beijing that led to the
establishment of U.S.-PRC relations. One scholar speculates
that China will not veto UNSC sanctions should the talks
stall, because the U.S.-China relationship remains the
overriding consideration for China and additional sanctions
on Iran would not be effective. Beijing interpreted the U.S.
reversal on the anti-missile system in Eastern Europe as an
effort to influence Russia on Iran, and, the scholar
speculated, Beijing may similarly seek a concession from the
United States in exchange for cooperation on Iran. Another
scholar said China's concerns over security in Xinjiang
province play an increasingly important role in PRC policy
considerations on Iran, a trend amplified by the relative
deterioration of Beijing's political relationship with Tehran
in recent years. He downplayed the role China could play in
the negotiations and suggested leveraging regional powers
such as Turkey, Pakistan and the Gulf Cooperation Council
(GCC) countries as potential "platforms" for talks with Iran.
END SUMMARY.

State-Run Media Sticks to the Hard Line
--------------


2. (SBU) China's state-run media has recently sought to
reinforce the official PRC position on the Iran nuclear
issue. The main editorial in the September 28 Huanqiu Shibao
(a widely-circulated foreign affairs newspaper published by
the Communist Party mouthpiece People's Daily) reiterated PRC
opposition to "sanctions and punishment" from the
international community to deal with the Iran nuclear issue,
suggesting that Western media efforts to point out
contradictions in China's policy on the issue increased the
danger that Iran would turn toward extremism. The editorial
said China would avoid the double standard that "some Western
countries" applied to the Iran nuclear issue and questioned
the motives of Western countries in dealing with Tehran's
nuclear ambitions, but failed to comment on the announcement
last week that Iran had been developing a covert uranium
enrichment facility.


3. (C) POLOFF discussed Iran-China relations and Chinese
views on prospects for P5-plus-1 talks with Iran with
Professor Wu Bingbing from Peking University September 23 and
Director of Middle Eastern Studies Tang Zhichao from the
Ministry of State Security-affiliated China Institutes for
Contemporary International Relations (CICIR) September 28.

PRC Unlikely to Veto Sanctions if Raised
--------------


4. (C) Peking University Professor of Islamic Studies Wu
Bingbing (strictly protect) told POLOFF that the Iranian side
was keenly aware of the U.S. need to demonstrate progress in
the October 1 talks. He speculated that China would not veto
UN Security Council sanctions measures proposed by the United
States should the talks stall, because the U.S.-China
relationship remained the overriding consideration for China
in developing its Iran policy, but also because, in the PRC
view, additional economic sanctions on Iran would not be
effective nor would they affect China's primary interests in
Iran. He said that Chinese leaders interpreted the U.S.
decision to reconsider the installation of an anti-missile
system in Eastern Europe as an effort to influence Russian
leadership on Iran. He conjectured that Beijing would be
looking for a similar concession from the United States in
exchange for PRC cooperation on Iran, including possibly a
change in policy on Taiwan arms sales.

Internal Considerations Force PRC Iran Policy Rethink
-------------- --------------


5. (C) CICIR's Tang Zhichao (protect) told POLOFF that
China's concerns over security in Xinjiang province played an
increasingly important role in PRC policy considerations on
Iran. He said that long-term instability in Afghanistan and
Pakistan had contributed to an increase in violence and
unrest among Uighurs in western China, and that Beijing
needed Iran to play a positive role in support of regional
stability to deal with its domestic security concerns. He
said that shared religious links between Muslims in China and

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the broader Islamic world, including Iran, were forcing
policy-makers to reconsider how to engage with the Middle
East, a trend amplified by the relative deterioration of
Beijing's political relationship with Tehran in recent years
even as economic links had burgeoned.

More Calls for Se cret U.S.-Iran Talks
--------------


6. (C) Citing China's experience in establishing relations
with the U.S. through Kissinger's covert communication with
Beijing, both scholars urged the United States to engage in
such bilateral talks with Iran to create a "breakthrough"
that could push forward multilateral engagement. Peking
University's Wu argued that the prospects for progress in the
full P5-plus-1 setting were dim given that Iran had varying
interests and relations with the six countries, particularly
in the case of China and Russia, and was unlikely to
negotiate openly and meaningfully with all six in the room.

Need a "Nixon in China" Moment
--------------


7. (C) Tang agreed that significant progress emerging from
the P5-plus-1's engagement with Iran was unlikely and that
U.S.-Iran relations needed a "Nixon in China" moment. He
stressed that Iran had responded positively to the call for
negotiations, clearly signaling Iranian hopes for President
Obama's new approach. The United States was ultimately the
decision-maker, Tang added, downplaying the role that China
could play in terms of real negotiations and stressing that
the current round of talks should only be seen as a starting
point of a difficult process. Tang suggested leveraging
regional powers such as Turkey, Pakistan and the GCC
countries as potential "platforms" for conducting talks with
Iran, and urged the United States to open a diplomatic
facility in Iran to signal positive U.S. intentions.

HUNTSMAN