SCENESETTER FOR DOE SECRETARY CHU VISIT TO CHINA

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 06 BEIJING 001911 STATE FOR EAP/CM-HABJAN, EAP/CM, EAP/PD-STOLTZ STATE FOR OES DAS MIOTKE, OES/EGC, OES/ENV, AND OES/PCI STATE FOR S/SECC-STERN, S/P-GREEN, EEB, AND ECA STATE PASS TO CEQ SUTLEY USDOE FOR INTERNATIONAL USDOC FOR MAC AND MAS USDOC PASS USPTO FOR WU EPA FOR INTERNATIONAL/MKASMAN/GIANNINI-SPOHN NSC FOR LOI, SHRIER SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: OVIP PREL PGOV ECON PARM MARR SENV ENRG KGHG CH SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR DOE SECRETARY CHU VISIT TO CHINA (U) Sensitive but unclassified. Please handle accordingly. ¶1. (SBU) Secretary Chu, Chinese leaders are eagerly looking forward to your visit to China and to engaging you on issues of energy, climate change and science, among others, that will help determine the quality of life of the Chinese and American people over the next few decades. Your visit comes as Chinese leaders again are confronted with issues of ethnicity and dissent in a far off place, this time in Xinjiang and are wrestling, with some success, with the impact of the global economic crisis on their economic development plans. But it also comes at a time of some considerable pride, with the commemoration of 30 years of diplomatic relations between our two countries and upcoming 60th anniversary of the founding of the PRC. China's leaders have been very clear that they want what they are now calling a positive, cooperative and comprehensive relationship with the United States. The question is always how they see and deal with us on issues of disagreement - Tibet (this year was the 50th anniversary of the Tibetan Uprising and the Dalai Lama's flight to India),questions of history (this is the 20th anniversary of the Tiananmen massacre),human rights and religious freedom, among other matters. We have also provided information below on issues that might be raised in your meetings such as Taiwan and our military-to-military relationship (paragraphs 18-19). ¶2. (SBU) This year also marks the 30th anniversary of the U.S.-China Agreement on Cooperation in Science and Technology. The agreement--signed by President Carter and President Deng Xiaoping just prior to the formal establishment of diplomatic relations--is the longest standing accord between our two countries and has facilitated an era of robust government-to-government S&T collaboration. China's leaders, scientific and academic community and its more creative thinkers about energy issues are ready to work with you - as is this mission on enhancing how we move forward on S&T and these issues of global significance. Bilateral Relations -------------- ¶3. (SBU) The Chinese appreciated Secretary Clinton's including China in her first visit abroad as Secretary of State, and were particularly pleased that the new U.S. climate change envoy Todd Stern accompanied her. They have invited the President to visit Beijing later this year, looking forward to discussions with him and other senior U.S. leaders to move forward key issues in our bilateral strategic and economic dialogue. We are also intensifying the seriousness with which we discuss hot-spot issues such as North Korea, Iran, Afghanistan and Pakistan. ¶4. (SBU). China has hosted the Six-Party Talks aimed at creating a denuclearized Korean Peninsula since the Talks' inception in 2003. On April 5, North Korea launched a Taepodong-2 ICBM in violation of UN Security Council Resolution (UNSCR) 1695. On May 25, North Korea conducted its second test of a nuclear device in violation of UNSCR 1718 and other international agreements. On June 12, China and BEIJING 00001911 002 OF 006 other members of the Security Council adopted UNSCR 1874 to condemn the nuclear test and to call for North Korea not to conduct further nuclear tests or ballistic missile launches, re-establish its moratorium on missile launching, comply with UNSCR 1718, return to the Non-Proliferation Treaty and IAEA safeguards, and abandon all nuclear weapons, WMD and ballistic missile programs in a complete, verifiable and irreversible manner. Since that time, the USG has been in regular contact with senior Chinese officials to discuss the effective implementation of UNSCR 1874. Response to the Financial Crisis -------------- ¶5. (SBU) China's financial system was relatively insulated from the global financial unrest, and Beijing's response to the economic crisis has, in general, been responsible and helpful. They have continued to buy U.S. Treasury bills, and have worked with us in international fora such as the G-20 Leader's meetings to achieve global financial stability. China has provided $50 billion in additional resources to the IMF and we have made clear our support for reforming that institution. ¶6. (SBU) Chinese exports and export-related investment were hard-hit by the global economic downturn. Exports in the first five months of this year were down around 26 percent compared to the same period last year, and foreign investment is flat. What declining exports have taken away, the Chinese government is trying to replace with state-driven domestic spending. Beijing has announced a series of stimulus plans, including massive infrastructure, social spending, and monetary initiatives. These programs are bearing fruit, and domestic government and SOE investment has expanded enough that most economists are expecting China to grow at least 7-8 percent this year. [NOTE: Media reports have made much of the fact that electricity use is falling while official production rates rise - this is in part due to statistical factors, and anecdotal evidence supports the Chinese growth data. END NOTE.] ¶7. (SBU) We have welcomed Beijing's strong actions to stimulate its economy, but continue to emphasize the importance of long-term sustainability. Although we see green shoots in the United States and Europe, we expect the U.S. savings rate to increase, and American consumers may no longer absorb China's excess production; China needs to start re-orienting its economy toward domestic consumption. We point out that, as we have seen in the United States, high growth of bank lending and lack of transparency in China can be a cause for concern. A more flexible exchange rate is one part of a policy mix that can promote more harmonious balanced growth. ¶8. (SBU) The majority of U.S. businesses operating here remain profitable, especially those that are selling into the Chinese domestic market. However, despite China's frequent calls to ban "protectionism" and their claims that they have no "Buy Chinese" policy in their stimulus package, U.S. businesses say that the BEIJING 00001911 003 OF 006 Chinese government puts severe restrictions on U.S. companies' ability to compete successfully for stimulus-related contracts. These biases have exacerbated pre-crisis favoritism for domestic firms through use of unique national standards, requirements to force firms into joint ventures with Chinese partners, slower licensing for foreign firms, and the drafting of selective contract specifications to favor domestic firms. It is valuable to emphasize the reality of the "Buy American" requirements in the U.S. stimulus, including their limited scope. China: A Growing Energy Consumer -------------- ¶9. (SBU) No issue is likely to occupy China's next generation of leaders more than energy security. In less than a generation, China has become an influential player in international energy markets and is currently the world's fastest-growing energy consumer. In 1990, China's energy use accounted for 8% of global primary energy consumption. This grew to 17% by 2007 and it is expect to rise to nearly 21% by 2030. Access to adequate energy supplies is a high priority for China. Oil accounts for about 20% of China's current energy mix. China became a net importer of oil in 1993 and it now relies on imports to meet about 50% of its fossil fuel needs. It is projected that China will need to import some 60% of its oil and at least 30 percent of its natural gas by 2020. To strengthen the country's energy security, China has adopted a "go-out" policy, which encourages national oil, gas, and minerals companies to acquire equity stakes in foreign extractive industries, sometimes with deals that help prop up regimes that use the money to sustain themselves in power. Saudi Arabia, Angola, Iran, Oman, and Russia are China's largest oil suppliers; China has also made deals in riskier locations such as Sudan, Burma and Iraq to cope with growing demand. Coal Dominates the Energy Mix -------------- ¶10. (SBU) Coal remains China's primary source of energy, accounting for 70% of its energy mix and fueling 80% of China's electricity production. Dependence on coal has come at a high environmental, economic, and public health cost. By most measurements, more than half of the world's most polluted cities are in China. China's sulfur dioxide, carbon dioxide, and mercury emissions are the highest in the world. According to a recent study by the World Health Organization, diseases caused by outdoor and indoor air pollution in China kill 656,000 Chinese citizens every year. The World Bank estimates that economic losses due to pollution total between 3 and 7 percent of GDP annually. ¶11. (SBU) In an effort to address these issues China is working on a range of domestic energy policies and incentives to reduce its reliance on coal and address its most pressing pollution issues, including subsidies for cars with small engines and solar energy equipment, more energy efficient buildings, and the construction of dozens of new nuclear reactors that will nearly double China's BEIJING 00001911 004 OF 006 current nuclear power output by 2020. Although China has ambitious renewable energy plans, connecting to the grid remains a major obstacle. China hopes to address these challenges through cooperation with the United States on smart grid technology. ¶12. (SBU) In a bid to scale up bilateral cooperation on clean energy, senior Chinese leaders including Vice Premier LI Keqiang, State Councilor LIU Yandong, and Minister WAN Gang of the Ministry of Science and Technology (MOST) have all signaled their support for the establishment of a U.S.-China clean energy research and development center. Chinese leaders have also indicated that the new center should include participation from large enterprises and private industry such as U.S. and Chinese automakers, which are working on electric car development. Climate Change and China -------------- ¶13. (SBU) China surpassed the United States last year as the world's largest annual emitter of greenhouse gases (GHGs). The United States is seeking to establish a new level of cooperation on climate change with China. During Secretary Clinton's February visit, China agreed to establish a partnership on energy/climate change and also agreed that the U.S. and China should work together for the success of the UNFCCC climate change meeting in Copenhagen. The concept for addressing both issues through a single partnership was also outlined in a non-paper submitted to the NDRC in early-June and discussed at length with NDRC Vice Minister Xie, Vice Premier Li, and State Councilor Liu. Because China and the United States together represent 40% of world emissions, no post-Kyoto climate change framework will be meaningful without China. Although the U.S.-China Ten Year Framework (TYF) on Energy and Environmental Cooperation established in June 2008 does not specifically address climate change concerns, the TYF and its action plans are intended to support this new partnership. ¶14. (SBU) Nevertheless, senior NDRC officials have recently expressed concerns over the USG's expressed preference for formalizing the link between climate change and clean energy. During a June 30th meeting to walk through a draft agreement of the U.S.-China Partnership on Clean Energy and Climate Change, MA Xin, the NDRC's Director General of the Department of International Cooperation said that given the time and effort that went into negotiating the TYF, NDRC's strong preference is that it remain intact and that existing action plans be allowed to yield results. He also said that replacing, dismantling, or fragmenting the existing TYF will likely require repeating the difficult negotiations over text that occurred in 2008, and is unlikely to be completed before the July S&ED. Ma also expressed concern that combining climate change and clean energy in the same partnership may be contentious on the Chinese side and that consensus on clean energy collaboration may get derailed by more challenging negotiations on the climate change portion of the agreement. Ma clearly noted that his reactions were preliminary and not an BEIJING 00001911 005 OF 006 official NDRC position and said NDRC needs some time to digest the draft. China's Current Position on Climate Change -------------- ¶15. (SBU) Although China is now the world's largest emitter of GHGs, it has not directly acknowledged this fact; nevertheless, some Chinese ministers have privately conceded this fact in meetings with U.S. officials. You can expect your interlocutors to point out that historically and on a per capita basis, China's emissions are only a fraction of those of the developed countries. China is devoted to the UNFCCC principle of "common but differentiated responsibilities." To China, as a "developing country," this means it is the responsibility of the developed countries to deal with cumulative historical emissions and it is unfair to expect developing countries to take on these same targets. China also adheres to the UNFCCC principle that the developed countries have an obligation to provide technology and financing to developing countries to address their energy needs. Although China does not have national emissions targets, it does have a target for reducing energy intensity by 20% by 2010, and it has a goal of reaching a 16% renewable energy share by 2020. Despite China's declared solidarity with the developing countries, it is also acutely aware of its vulnerability to the effects of climate change, including increasing rates of glacial melt and desertification, rising sea levels, and extreme weather events. Opportunities for the U.S. -------------- ¶16. (SBU) China's 11th Five-year Plan calls for a 20% improvement in energy efficiency between 2005 and 2010 (3.7 percent at an annualized rate). This goal coincides with U.S. interests in maintaining energy security and developing opportunities for U.S. companies in the Chinese market. U.S. firms are just beginning to tap into opportunities in China to introduce energy efficiency, pollution control, and clean coal technologies. China is a particularly attractive market because of its significant efforts to adopt clean energy technology even while its economy is becoming more industrialized. U.S. companies are very competitive in a range of clean energy technologies, including renewable energy, power generation, gasification, energy efficiency, nuclear, and others. Clean energy projects draw on the rich resources of both U.S. and Chinese ingenuity and lead to jobs in both countries. Westinghouse, for example, estimates that several thousand U.S.-based jobs are retained every time China orders another nuclear reactor from them. Human Rights -------------- ¶17. (SBU) Although freedoms for Chinese citizens have expanded over the past three decades (what some observers have called a bigger "cage"),the overall human rights situation in China remains poor in many respects. We continue to emphasize that the expansion of individual freedoms, respect for the rule of law and the BEIJING 00001911 006 OF 006 establishment of a truly free and independent judiciary and press are in China's own interests, and would enable the PRC to deal with social tensions and achieve its goal of building a "harmonious society." Senior leaders will likely share with you their views on the recent unrest in Tibet and Xinjiang. Violence in Tibet erupted in March 2008, after police in Lhasa moved in to quell a peaceful commemoration by Tibetan monks of a failed 1959 uprising against Chinese rule. The unrest spread to Tibetan communities in neighboring provinces. On July 5, 2009, bloody riots broke out in China's far western province of Xinjiang between ethnic Muslim Uighurs and Chinese Han in the capital city of Urumuqi, leaving more than 150 persons dead. Members of minority groups in Tibet and Xinjiang have complained for years about growing immigration by Han Chinese into their areas and controls on religious practices. Taiwan -------------- ¶18. (SBU) It is unlikely that yoQinterlocutors will subject you to lengthy discourses on Taiwan or offer warnings on the serious consequences should the United States continue to sell arms to Taiwan. If they do, you may choose to respond by emphasizing our obligations under the Taiwan Relations Act to consider Taiwan's legitimate defense needs and that we believe our sales of defense articles to Taiwan have been conducive to cross-Strait peace and stability. We suggest you welcome the improvements in cross-Strait ties pushed by PRC President Hu and positively embraced by Taiwan President Ma Ying-jeou since his inauguration in 2008. You can encourage Beijing to maintain the positive momentum by accommodating Taiwan's meaningful participation in international organizations such as observership at the World Health Assembly (now a reality), by reducing military deployments aimed at Taiwan, and continuing to make progress on cross-Strait economic and cultural ties. Military-to-Military Relations -------------- ¶19. (SBU) Military-to-military relations lag behind most other aspects of the bilateral relationship. Military exchanges were suspended by the Chinese last October after DOD notified Congress of pending arms sales to Taiwan, but resumed in late June with the Defense Consultative Talks in Beijing led by Under Secretary of Defense Policy Michele Flournoy. The PLA Navy's recent deployment to combat piracy off the Horn of Africa is but one opportunity for closer cooperation; however, recent harassment by Chinese Navy, Coast Guard and fishing vessels against unarmed U.S. Naval vessels (i.e. USNS IMPECCABLE) conducting routine surveillance operations in international waters could undermine mutual trust and risk unforeseen calamities that could damage our relationship. GOLDBERG