2009 U.S.-CHINA DEFENSE CONSULTATIVE TALKS (DCT),

C O N F I D E N T I A L BEIJING 001835 DEPARTMENT FOR EAP, ISN. JOINT STAFF FOR J5 E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/23/2034 TAGS: PREL PARM MOPS EAID IR AF PK SUBJECT: 2009 U.S.-CHINA DEFENSE CONSULTATIVE TALKS (DCT), SESSION 3 PART 2: AFGHANISTAN/PAKISTAN AND IRAN Classified By: Classified by ADCM William Weinstein. Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) During U.S.-China Defense Consultative Talks June 24, 2009, Michele Flournoy, Under Secretary of Defense for Policy (USDP) presented the U.S. perspective on the situation in Afghanistan and Pakistan, stressing the importance of China's role in the region. PRC military officials perceived different underlying causes for the situations in Afghanistan and Pakistan, viewing the problem in Afghanistan as essentially political and instability in Pakistan as stemming from the security situation. China is still considering the U.S. request to ship non-lethal supplies through PRC territory in support of Afghanistan stabilization efforts, urged the U.S. not to apply a "double-standard" in labeling terrorist groups, and asserted that Chinese Uighurs released from Guantanamo should be repatriated to China. The PLA identified a "window of opportunity" for progress on the Iranian nuclear issue, but admitted that Tehran might not be ready to talk, and the possibility for strategic miscalculation between Iran and Israel posed another possible obstacle to progress. End Summary. U.S. Views on Security and Stability in Afghanistan and Pakistan -------------- -------------- ¶2. (C) Leading off the discussion on Afghanistan and Pakistan, USDP described the two countries as priority areas of interest for the Obama administration, and conveyed the United States' hope that China would use its relations with the Pakistani military to urge the latter to focus on combating the insurgency and extremism. Craig Mullaney, Principal Director for Central Asia in the Office of the Secretary of Defense, briefed the Afghanistan- Pakistan Strategic Review, stressing that the U.S. has a vital national interest in security threats posed by extremists in Afghanistan and Pakistan, and outlining the primary U.S. objectives in the region. EAP/CM Director David Shear told the PLA that U.S.-China cooperation is a necessary part of the international community's stabilization efforts in the region, and stressed that the U.S. does not seek hegemony in the region or to displace China's influence in Pakistan. PLA View: Afghanistan and Pakistan Are Fundamentally Different Problems -------------- -------------- ¶3. (C) MG Yang Hui, Director of the PLA Intelligence Department, presented China's views on Afghanistan and Pakistan, noting that the two countries neighbor China and that China seeks peace and stability in the region. China wants to avoid conflict between Pakistan and India, and seeks to ensure that terrorist groups do not go unchecked in the region. MG Yang stressed that China sees the situations in Afghanistan and Pakistan as having different underlying causes, with the problem in Afghanistan essentially being political while the root cause of the instability in Pakistan is a security issue. He noted that throughout its history Afghanistan has never enjoyed a strong central government, and tribal leadership had always had strong influence. The Taliban currently control over 70 percent of the territory and seek to take back control of the entire country, making the government's struggle against them a struggle for survival. In contrast, MG Yang claimed, the Pakistan issue was an internal security matter, and the Pakistan government's top priority should be to prevent the Taliban from spreading within Pakistan, as well as supporting stabilization efforts. He added that the differing root causes should indicate to the international community that outsiders should respect the two countries' sovereignty and territorial integrity and take "comprehensive" counterterrorism measures. ¶4. (C) China, MG Yang observed, remains a developing country and contributes to the two countries "to the best of its ability," including US$180 million in assistance to Afghanistan and the cancellation of official debt. In the next five years, Yang reported, China would provide an additional US$75 million as well as 31 million RMB in military assistance. For Pakistan, China provided a US$100 million grant in April 2008 and has decided to provide an additional 60 million RMB to assist internally displaced persons there. ¶5. (C) MG Yang noted that the Obama administration's new approach on Afghanistan and Pakistan marks a major departure from the previous administration, especially in its comprehensive emphasis on political, economic and international efforts in addition to military actions. He stressed that China is sincere in its emphasis on U.S.-China cooperation in the region. Non-Lethal Shipping Request, Guantanamo Uighurs -------------- -- ¶6. (C) USDP reiterated the U.S. request to use commercial shipping to move non-lethal supplies across China to support international efforts to stabilize Afghanistan. Lieutenant General Ma Xiaotian, Deputy Chief of the PLA General Staff replied that China has received the request, but numerous agencies within the PRC government need to consider the proposal before making a decision. Linking the U.S. request to PRC concerns, LTG Ma then referenced China's interest in the connections terrorist groups in Afghanistan and Pakistan might have with separatist forces within China. LTG Ma claimed that many of these forces trained in Central Asia, and asked that the U.S. not apply a "double-standard" in determining terrorist groups and individuals. He raised the example of "terrorists" that were being released from Guantanamo, complaining that the 16 Uighurs in that group should be sent back to China but were instead being relocated to third countries. EAP/CM Director Shear responded that the United States previously explained the Guantanamo closure process to the Chinese and that many opportunities remain for U.S.-China cooperation on Afghanistan and Pakistan. ¶7. (C) LTG Ma presented China's assessment that Central Asia was serving as a training ground and base of operations for terrorist groups and that the security situation in Afghanistan and Pakistan has a strong impact on security in northwest China, giving China a special "interest (in) and responsibility" for regional stability. China is willing to work with the international community to "do its part," he asserted. China enjoys a long-term strategic partnership with Pakistan at various levels of government, LTG Ma noted, and China employs these channels of communication to support counter-terrorism efforts in Pakistan. The PLA's View of Iran -------------- ¶8. (C) Turning to Iran, MG Yang remarked that China clearly supports the international nuclear nonproliferation regime and opposes Iran's development of nuclear weapons. He maintained that China supports the international community's efforts to resolve the issue through diplomacy and that the U.S. and China enjoy strong communication and coordination on the issue. He observed that there is at present a "window of opportunity" for progress on the nuclear issue. In MG Yang's view, Iranian nuclear development was driven by three factors: 1) its own national security concerns, 2) a desire to increase its role in the Middle East, and 3) a need to enhance internalpolitical coherence. ¶9. (C) MG Yang noted that the U.S. government has signaled its intention to improve relations with Iran and is prepared to remove forces from Iraq, and that the Iranian side has taken a more positive attitude as a result. He suggested that, by strengthening alliances among Shia outside Iran, Tehran's influence in the region has increased. The result is that many in Iran argue that Tehran's hard-line position vis-a-vis the U.S. should be relaxed. MG Yang added that the effort to develop nuclear weapons has not proven to be a unifying political force for Iran. He argued that, in light of these developments, now was the time for engagement and negotiations with Tehran while showing respect for its security concerns. ¶10. (C) MG Yang cautioned, however, that two major obstacles to progress remained. First, it remains unclear if Iran was willing to enter into negotiations. From the Iranian perspective, MG Yang claimed, recent U.S. overtures could be seen as a victory for the Iranian revolution. Before the recent election in Iran, both major candidates announced that the U.S should be prepared to make concessions before talks could begin. ¶11. (C) Second, MG Yang cautioned that there remains the possibility of strategic miscalculation between Iran and Israel. In contrast to recent improvements in Iran's perception of its security environment, Israel has a grim assessment of the Iran nuclear issue, and has labeled Iran the most urgent threat to its survival. According to MG Yang, Israel has announced its intention to strike Iranian nuclear facilities with military force if increased U.S. engagement with Iran fails to show progress. Iran has labeled Israel a "tumor" on the region and was supporting anti-Israel forces. Strategic miscalculation would lead to the potential for serious turbulence in the region. MG Yang reported that China is talking to Iran through many channels to emphasize the importance of cooperation with the international community, and stressed that the resumption of talks is in Iran's own interest. USDP expressed appreciation for China's restraint on arms sales to Iran and said she hoped this will continue until the issue is resolved. She also urged China to abide by international sanctions against Iran. December 2007 NIE -------------- ¶12. (C) MG Yang asked the U.S. delegation whether the assessment of the Iranian nuclear weapons program announced in the December 2007 National Intelligence Estimate still applies. Robert Gromoll, State Department Acting Director from ISN asserted that it does, but noted that the recent IAEA Director General's report on the Iranian nuclear issue contained clear danger signals, including the possibility of undeclared nuclear activities and a military dimension to the nuclear program. USDP added that Iran's continued enrichment activities would in time give Iran a breakout capability. ¶13. (U) U.S. Participants: Michele Flournoy, Under Secretary of Defense for Policy (USDP); Dan Piccuta, Charge d'Affaires; Michael Schiffer, Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense (DASD); for East Asia David Shear, EAP/CM, Department of State; Brig Gen Joseph Callahan, Deputy Director for Politico-Military Affairs - Asia, Joint Staff J5; Brig Gen William Uhle, USPACOM Deputy J5; RDML Bradley Gerhrke, U.S. Defense Attache in Beijing; John Plumb, OSD Principal Director for Nuclear and Missile Defense Policy; Craig Mullaney, OSD Principal Director for Central Asia; Robert Gromoll Acting Director for Regional Affairs ISN, Department of State. ¶14. (U) PRC Participants Lieutenant General Ma Xiaotian, Deputy Chief of the PLA General Staff; Major General Qian Lihua, Director, Ministry of National Defense Foreign Affairs Office (MND/FAO); Major General Yang Hui, Director, Intelligence Department, PLA General Staff Department; Rear Admiral Yi Changzhi, Deputy Chief of Staff, PLA Navy; Major General Zhu Chenghu, Director, Department of International Strategic Studies, PLA National Defense University (NDU); Senior Captain Guan Youfei, Deputy Director, MND/FAO; Senior Colonel Wang Kebin, Deputy Director, Operations Department, PLA General Staff Department; Major General Zhao Ning, PRC Defense Attache in Washington; Senior Captain Li Ji, Director, North American and Oceania Bureau, MND/FAO; Councilor Ma Zhanwu, North American and Oceania Affairs, MFA; Lieutenant Colonel Chu Weiwei, Interpreter, MND/FAO ¶15. (U) USDP has cleared this cable. GOLDBERG