2009 U.S.-CHINA DEFENSE CONSULTATIVE TALKS (DCT),

C O N F I D E N T I A L BEIJING 001826 DEPARTMENT FOR EAP, ISN. JOINT STAFF FOR J5 E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/23/2034 TAGS: PREL PARM MOPS CH TW SUBJECT: 2009 U.S.-CHINA DEFENSE CONSULTATIVE TALKS (DCT), SESSION 3: ADVANCING THE DIALOGUE ON NUCLEAR POLICY AND STRATEGY Classified By: Classified by ADCM William Weinstein. Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) During a discussion ON advancing the U.S.-PRC Dialogue ON Nuclear Policy and Strategy as part of the 10th U.S.-China Defense Consultative Talks (DCT),Lieutenant General Ma Xiaotian responded to a U.S. presentation ON the Defense Department's Nuclear Posture Review (NPR),Ballistic Missile Defense Review (BMDR) and START Follow-on negotiations and questions about China's own nuclear program, by explaining that China's nuclear posture has always been defensive in nature, but that in order to preserve its nuclear deterrent, China cannot be completely transparent. LTG Ma noted that the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) does not preclude it from modernizing its nuclear arsenal technologically, but that the modernization does not imply any change in three of the four stages of China's strategic intentions. PRC experts believe that U.S. missile defenses have offensive applications, such as anti-satellite weapons, LTC Ma stated. In response to Michele Flournoy's, Under Secretary of Defense for Policy (USDP),request to move forward ON the next round of the U.S.-PRC Dialogue ON Nuclear Policy and Strategy, LTG Ma replied that several obstacles, including China's alleged status as nuclear strike target in the 2002 NPR and U.S. arms sales to Taiwan, have complicated the possibility for substantive exchanges. Ma pressed the U.S. and Russia to lead in arms reductions. End Summary U.S. Presentations -------------- ¶2. (C) USDP opened the session ON Nuclear Policy and Strategy by noting that in a spirit of openness the United States wished to share with China the basic direction of the Defense Department's nuclear and strategic reviews currently in progress. She added that the United States hopes that this would contribute to advancing the U.S.-PRC Dialogue ON Nuclear Policy and Strategy begun in April 2008. Dr. John Plumb, Office of the Secretary of Defense Principal Director for Nuclear and Missile Defense, briefed ON developments related to the U.S. Nuclear Posture Review (NPR),the Congressional Commission ON the Strategic Posture of the United States (SPC); START Follow-on negotiations with Russia; and the U.S. Ballistic Missile Defense Review (BMDR). Dr. Plumb emphasized that the U.S. seeks to reduce the role of nuclear weapons in its national security strategy, take concrete steps toward the long term goal of a world without nuclear weapons and ensure that, as long as nuclear weapons exist, the U.S. maintains a safe, secure and effective arsenal to deter any adversary and extend deterrence to allies and friends. The PLA's Response -------------- ¶3. (C) LTG Ma indicated appreciation for the brief and offered a presentation ON China's nuclear policy. LTG Ma asserted that U.S. perceptions of China's nuclear strategy and intentions are at times incorrect. China's defense policy and nuclear posture have always been defensive in nature, he maintained. China's nuclear policy was, for the most part, transparent, but LTG Ma suggested that China's intention is more important that transparency itself. ¶4. (C) Frankly speaking, there are areas of China's nuclear program that are not very transparent, LTG Ma continued. China will never enter into a nuclear arms race, therefore it maintains a very limited nuclear arsenal but one that is sufficient for its own purposes. China had never threatened another country, LTG Ma claimed, and its purpose in maintaining a nuclear arsenal is solely for deterrence. Therefore China must limit transparency regarding its nuclear facilities, the nature of its weapons systems, and its force structure, he concluded. ¶5. (C) China has all along opposed nuclear proliferation and, as a signatory of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT),has earnestly fulfilled its obligations, LTG Ma maintained. However, a testing moratorium does not rule out technological advances in China's nuclear arsenal, and such advances do not imply any changes in China's intentions. Nuclear weapon states, including the United States, have all taken measures to continue to develop nuclear weapons technology, LTG Ma alleged. As such, China's similar efforts should not be restricted, LTG Ma maintained. China intends to keep its nuclear technology current in order to protect its nuclear deterrent capabilities. ¶6. (C) LTG Ma expressed concern over U.S. policy that links nuclear and conventional weapons, alleging that the United States is concurrently making efforts to reduce the size of nuclear weapons while increasing the size and destructive capabilities of conventional weapons. LTG Ma further accused the U.S. of attempting to make nuclear weapons "cleaner" through the use of neutron bombs, while making conventional weapons "dirtier" through the use of depleted uranium bombs. LTG Ma warned that this could encourage others to FOLLOW suit, particularly those who were less principled or technologically advanced than the United States and could cross a dangerous threshold. ¶7. (C) LTG Ma observed that China was the only permanent member of the UN Security Council to commit to a no first use policy and to renounce the use of nuclear weapons against non-nuclear countries and regions. China's commitment to this position has never changed, LTG Ma avowed, and China has consistently supported a comprehensive ban ON and destruction of all nuclear weapons. He conceded that such an outcome would require arduous negotiations and was a long way away, but that the first step would be for all nuclear weapons states to adopt a similar no first use policy. ¶8. (C) China's inclusion in the 2002 NPR as one of seven potential targets of nuclear strike undermines trust and the possibility of military-to-military dialogue ON nuclear strategy, LTG Ma relayed. The United States can decide what it wants to say in its NPR, LTG Ma allowed, but added that China reserves the right to determine whether or not it wants to engage in dialogue with the U.S. ON such topics. Missile Defense -------------- ¶9. (C) Turning to missile defense, LTG Ma noted that the U.S. had not yet responded to Russia and China's proposal to prevent the weaponization of outer space. Such resistance naturally causes others to question U.S. intentions and whether the U.S. seeks to gain a comprehensive advantage in space. LTG Ma added that China resolutely opposes any country providing missile defense to Taiwan by any means. ¶10. (C) According to LTG Ma, PRC experts believe that U.S. missile defenses are not entirely defensive in nature. He then outlined concerns with three of four stages of missile defense systems, stating that only the final phase was purely defensive. He noted that missile defense systems used airborne assets and "space weapons" to target a missile ON ascent, which could then be attacked while it was three to six hundred kilometers above orbit. Such capabilities, in effect, made missile defense measures an anti-satellite weapon, LTG Ma alleged. USDP told Ma that the U.S. has no weapons in space and that the U.S. was increasingly focused on theater ballistic missile systems, which are purely defensive. China Criticizes U.S. Nuclear Policy -------------- ¶11. (C) LTG Ma mentioned certain incidents in recent years that had lead China to question U.S. control mechanisms over its nuclear program -- particularly an incident involving "parts of nuclear warheads" being shipped to Taiwan and the nuclear weapon that was flown cross country. He questioned U.S. commitment to maintaining a safe, secure arsenal. In response, USDP noted subsequent corrective actions taken by the Secretary of Defense and the Air Force. Ma then shifted, saying as the nuclear power with the largest arsenal and most delivery vehicles, the United States must take the lead ON disarmament, he maintained. China supports nuclear disarmament and, through negotiations, the conclusion of a treaty ON the comprehensive ban and destruction of nuclear weapons, and the establishment of nuclear free zones. It is the responsibility of the two countries with the largest nuclear arsenals to make decisive efforts, LTG Ma maintained. Nonetheless, China appreciates "efforts by certain countries" to unilaterally reduce nuclear arsenals. NPT Review Conference -------------- ¶12. (C) USDP asked LTG Ma how China viewed its position in the run up to the upcoming Non-Proliferation Treaty review conference. The United States was discussing with Russia the potential for further reductions in nuclear arsenals and planned to submit the CTBT to the U.S. Senate for ratification, she advised. This illustrates that the United States is committed to taking steps to reduce the role of nuclear weapons in its national security strategy and to work with countries like China to strengthen international nonproliferation regimes and IAEA safeguards. However, she asked, how does China explain its investments in expanding and modernizing its nuclear arsenal as it heads into the NPT conference? ¶13. (C) LTG Ma replied that modernizing technology and increasing numbers were two distinct issues. However, LTG Ma stated he was unprepared to reply to the question in detail in the DCT. Instead, he asserted again that simply because China had legitimate needs to modernize its nuclear technology did not imply a change in intentions. China's modernization of its arsenal was consistent with the goal of safer, more effective nuclear weapons. In order to maintain its no first use policy China must be able to launch effective counterstrikes and therefore required modernized nuclear technology, LTG Ma explained. China has exercised remarkable self-restraint in its nuclear deployment, he alleged. In conclusion, LTG Ma noted that China welcomed U.S. intentions to submit the CTBT for Senate ratification. Nuclear Policy Dialogue -------------- ¶14. (C) USDP noted that the first round of the U.S.-PRC Dialogue ON Nuclear Policy and Strategy in April, 2008 had been productive and that the U.S. looked forward to China hosting the next round of discussions. LTG Ma acknowledged that the dialogue could improve strategic trust and understanding. In principle, he added, China supports the continuation of the dialogue. However, he cautioned that several obstacles to its resumption remain, namely Section 1201 of the U.S. National Defense Authorization Act of fiscal year 2000 (NDAA 2000),which restricts exchanges in the nuclear area. LTG Ma also cited as obstacles the 2002 NPR and U.S. arms sales to Taiwan. These obstacles complicate the already fragile environment for substantive exchanges, LTG Ma maintained. China hopes the U.S. will revisit its policies and take active measures to build a more solid foundation and favorable climate for future dialogues. ¶15. (U) U.S. Participants: Michele Flournoy, Under Secretary of Defense for Policy (USDP) Dan Piccuta, Charge d'Affaires Michael Schiffer, Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense (DASD) for East Asia David Shear, EAP/CM, Department of State Brig Gen Joseph Callahan, Deputy Director for Politico-Military Affairs - Asia, Joint Staff J5 Brig Gen William Uhle, USPACOM Deputy J5 RDML Bradley Gerhrke, U.S. Defense Attache in Beijing John Plumb, OSD Principal Director for Nuclear and Missile Defense Policy Craig Mullaney, OSD Principal Director for Central Asia Robert Gromoll Acting Director for Regional Affairs ISN, Department of State ¶16. (U) PRC Participants Lieutenant General Ma Xiaotian, Deputy Chief of the PLA General Staff Major General Qian Lihua, Director, Ministry of National Defense Foreign Affairs Office (MND/FAO) Major General Yang Hui, Director, Intelligence Department, PLA General Staff Department Rear Admiral Yi Changzhi, Deputy Chief of Staff, PLA Navy Major General Zhu Chenghu, Director, Department of International Strategic Studies, PLA National Defense University (NDU) Senior Captain Guan Youfei, Deputy Director, MND/FAO Senior Colonel Wang Kebin, Deputy Director, Operations Department, PLA General Staff Department Major General Zhao Ning, PRC Defense Attache in Washington Senior Captain Li Ji, Director, North American and Oceania Bureau, MND/FAO Councilor Ma Zhanwu, North American and Oceania Affairs, MFA Lieutenant Colonel Chu Weiwei, Interpreter, MND/FAO ¶17. (U) USDP has cleared this cable. GOLDBERG