2009 U.S.-CHINA DEFENSE CONSULTATIVE TALKS: ASIA

S E C R E T BEIJING 001823 DEPARTMENT FOR EAP, ISN. JOINT STAFF FOR J5 E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/23/2034 TAGS: PREL PARM MOPS CH TW SUBJECT: 2009 U.S.-CHINA DEFENSE CONSULTATIVE TALKS: ASIA PACIFIC SECURITY AND NORTH KOREA Classified By: Classified by ADCM William Weinstein. Reasons 1.4 (b) a nd (d). Summary -------------- ¶1. (S) China appreciates and shares the concerns of the United States, Japan and South Korea regarding the North Korean nuclear test, Deputy Chief of the People's Liberation Army (PLA) General Staff Lieutenant General Ma Xiaotian told Under Secretary of Defense for Policy (USDP) Michele Flournoy during the third session of the Defense Consultative Talks (DCT) June 24, 2009. China is ready to work with the United States and the international community to resolve the issue, LTG Ma affirmed. PLA Intelligence Department Director Major General Yang Hui stated that China would "uphold the goal of denuclearization and oppose proliferation." MG Yang assessed that North Korea's recent provocative behavior is primarily a reflection of its security concerns, but conceded that internal security and succession questions have also played a role. LTG Ma allowed that China respects traditional U.S. interests in the Asia-Pacific region but warned against the expansion of U.S. alliances and missile defense systems. LTG Ma also pushed the United States to be "more open" and to invite PLA observers to attend joint military exercises. End Summary. PLA Perspectives on North Korea's Provocative Behavior -------------- -------------- ¶3. (S) China appreciates and shares the concerns of the United States, Japan and South Korea regarding North Korea's nuclear test, LTG Ma told USDP. LTG Ma maintained that China's opposition to the test is "clear-cut and consistent," and he further urged both sides to "address the issue responsibly and take non-confrontational measures." China is ready to work with the United States and the international community to resolve the issue, LTG Ma concluded. ¶4. (S) PLA Intelligence Department Director MG Yang Hui told the delegation that China's position is to "uphold the goal of denuclearization, oppose proliferation and resolve the issue using peaceful, diplomatic and political means." China's proximity to North Korea made the issue one of "great concern," MG Yang observed, and reminded the U.S. delegation that China had "paid a heavy price" for the three wars it had fought on the Korean Peninsula (Note: A war in 1592 during the Ming Dynasty, the 1894-95 Sino-Japanese War, and the 1950 Korean War). China and the United States both have vital interests in the Peninsula, MG Yang noted. China voted in favor of UN Security Council Resolution 1874 in order to "pressure North Korea to change course," he claimed. MG Yang mentioned that he and DNI Mission Manager for North Korea, Ambassador Joseph DeTrani, agreed in a recent meeting that the United States and China had broad room for cooperation on the North Korea issue. The most important objective was to "prevent tensions from escalating," MG Yang maintained, adding that only when the situation had "returned to normal would we have any hope." MG Yang referred approvingly to former National Security Advisor Brent Scowcroft's article urging China and the United States to "join hands" to bring North Korea back to the negotiating table. On matters of intelligence, said MG Yang, China and the United States are already conducting "close cooperation," citing as an example a recent PLA Intelligence Department visit to exchange information with the CIA. MG Yang concluded that "whenever there is crisis there is opportunity," and urged all concerned parties to remain calm and restrained in order to prevent tensions from rising and strengthen cooperation. ¶5. (S) When USDP asked him to assess North Korea's motivations for its provocative behavior, MG Yang maintained that "survival had always been the number one priority" of the North Korean regime. North Korea is in an "inferior position" to South Korea based on all measurements of national strength, he alleged. China has frequently tried to persuade North Korea to give up its weapons programs and pursue economic growth by emphasizing that "a good economy and a well-fed people are the real atom bomb," MG Yang insisted. North Korea, however, rejected that argument on the basis that it applied only to large countries such as China. Moreover, MG Yang assessed that after witnessing the U.S. invasion of Iraq, North Korea concluded it could not give up its nuclear weapons program. ¶6. (S) Domestic considerations also played a role in Pyongyang's decision to conduct a second nuclear test, MG Yang continued. North Korea had seen ten years of economic stagnation with only one percent growth in the economy per year, and the "satellite launch" and nuclear test were designed to give "coherence and stability" to the country. Kim Jong-il's health problems last year, MG Yang admitted, also added urgency to the question of succession. He noted that there has been a recent reshuffling of high level officials in North Korea and that the National Defense Commission (NDC) has added new members. ¶7. (S) Given that North Korea has stated its intention to take retaliatory measures following the adoption of the UN resolution, the United States and China must work together to bring the situation back to normal and "not let it get out of control," MG Yang urged. North Korea must be made to feel that abandoning its nuclear program best serves its interests. MG Yang claimed that as a result of China's statements in support of Resolution 1874, North Korea has begun to realize that it would not get what it wanted by developing its nuclear program. There was "still opportunity and hope," MG Yang assessed, and that was why China insisted on the "peaceful and diplomatic means of resolution." ¶8. (S) MG Qian Lihua, Director, Ministry of National Defense Foreign Affairs Office, asked for clarification on possible unilateral actions the U.S. might take if international efforts to persuade North Korea to change its behavior were unsuccessful. He asked whether such measures might include U.S. cooperation with South Korea or Japan, and involve diplomatic, political or economic measures. He wondered if such measures might even involve U.S. bilateral engagement with the DPRK. USDP responded that the international community needs to employ both incentives and disincentives to change North Korea's calculus, but if these are unsuccessful the U.S. is concerned that other countries in the region might conclude that they have no other choice but to take unilateral defense measures. She stressed this was an outcome the U.S. hopes to avoid, but it underscores the importance of offering North Korea a clear alternative while responsibly applying pressure. U.S. Perspective: North Korea at a Crossroads -------------- ¶9. (S) If North Korea succeeds in increasing its nuclear and missile capabilities, there will be serious consequences for the security of both China and the United States, USDP advised LTG Ma. Either North Korea would take irreversible steps to denuclearize, or all concerned would find themselves going down a road no one wants to travel, she warned. Further improvements in North Korea's nuclear and missile capabilities would cause neighboring countries to take necessary steps to protect their security, USDP cautioned, including missile defense, improving alliances and enhancing offensive capabilities. ¶10. (S) Michael Schiffer, Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense (DASD) for East Asia further elaborated on this point, noting that the North Korea situation is "at an inflection point" and that if the five parties fail to persuade North Korea to change course, the United States will have no choice other than to take serious countermeasures. The United States intends to work responsibly within the framework of the UN Security Council resolution, DASD Schiffer emphasized, but added that Pyongyang's actions must have consequences. The United States has made clear that the door is open to bilateral and multilateral negotiations leading to normalization of relations, energy and economic assistance, and a peaceful regime provided North Korea decides to denuclearize, DASD Schiffer noted. However, the United States would not "buy the same horse twice." If North Korea rejects engagement with the international community, he warned, the United States and others might be forced to take additional measures to protect their security. The United States understands China's concern about instability in North Korea if harsh measures were to be adopted, DASD Schiffer allowed. However, he warned, inaction would produce even greater instability. Asia-Pacific Security Issues -------------- ¶11. (C) China and the United States should broaden cooperation in the Asia Pacific region, LTG Ma urged. The two countries should not view one another as competitors and should commit to security in the region, he added. China "recognized and respected" U.S. traditional interests and relationships in the region, LTG Ma allowed, but opposed the expansion of existing military alliances. Such expansion demonstrated a "cold war mentality" and might be targeted at other countries, LTG Ma claimed. China opposes the creation of an "Asian NATO" or "ideological alliances." Such alliances would go against the shared interests of the United States and China and would negatively affect stability in the region, LTG Ma alleged. China also opposes the expansion of missile defense in Asia, and was concerned that some Asian countries would become "semi-allies" of the United States by virtue of U.S. technological transfers to them. LTG Ma held up China's "active role" in ASEAN Plus Three, the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF),the Shangri-La Dialogue and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) as examples of China's commitment to regional cooperation. In response, USDP clarified that the United States was not seeking a NATO-like alliance in Asia and welcomed China's participation in regional fora. David Shear, EAP Director for China and Mongolia Affairs also noted that the United States does not seek to encircle China, but wants to engage it bilaterally. The Strategic and Economic Dialogue underscores our intent to engage China, Director Shear continued, further urging the PLA to send a representative to the session in July. ¶12. (C) The United States should "be more open and transparent" in Southeast Asia and should invite PLA observers to attend joint military exercises in the region, advised MG Qian. He complained that China had asked to observe U.S. joint military exercises on numerous occasions but had not received a response. LTG Ma noted that although China and the Philippines had some political disagreements earlier in 2009, China still responded positively to an invitation to attend a joint U.S.-Philippine humanitarian response exercise. LTG Ma alleged that the Defense Department "rarely" invited the PLA to observe joint military exercises, and when invited, the PLA was only allowed to observe "a small part." The PLA, by contrast, has been open in this regard and has frequently invited U.S. officials to observe brigade-level live fire exercises, LTG Ma claimed. China seeks "reciprocity" on military exercises, he added and warned that in the future China would only invite countries to observe its military exercises whose exercises China has observed. ¶13. (C) In response, Brigadier General William Uhle, USPACOM Deputy J5 explained that the U.S. conducted many combined exercises with other countries in the region and that it was not always up to the United States who to invite. Brig Gen Uhle further noted that U.S. exercises tend to focus on command and control and planning, in contrast to the PLA's firepower demonstrations, and that the U.S. would appreciate greater reciprocity in terms of the type of exercise each was invited to observe. USDP suggested that both sides look at their upcoming calendar of exercises and identify opportunities for the other to observe or participate. ¶14. (C) Senior Colonel Wang Kebin, Deputy Director for Operations in the PLA General Staff Department described PRC counter piracy operations as aimed at protecting PRC and international organization ships in accordance with UN resolutions. He described the positive cooperation between the PLA Navy and their U.S. counterparts, and pointed in particular to intelligence exchanges and "experience sharing" as positive developments. SrCOl Wang referenced China's proposal to divide counter piracy operations into zones of responsibility, and mentioned that China awaits other countries' responses to that proposal. USDP affirmed that the two countries' counter piracy engagement was exactly the type of operational cooperation in pursuit of common interests that both sides should seek to expand. ¶15. (U) U.S. Participants: Michele Flournoy, Under Secretary of Defense for Policy (USDP) Dan Piccuta, Charge d'Affaires Michael Schiffer, Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense (DASD) for East Asia David Shear, EAP/CM, Department of State Brig Gen Joseph Callahan, Deputy Director for Politico-Military Affairs - Asia, Joint Staff J5 Brig Gen William Uhle, USPACOM Deputy J5 RDML Bradley Gerhrke, U.S. Defense Attache in Beijing John Plumb, OSD Principal Director for Nuclear and Missile Defense Policy Craig Mullaney, OSD Principal Director for Central Asia Robert Gromoll Acting Director for Regional Affairs ISN, Department of State ¶16. (U) PRC Participants Lieutenant General Ma Xiaotian, Deputy Chief of the PLA General Staff Major General Qian Lihua, Director, Ministry of National Defense Foreign Affairs Office (MND/FAO) Major General Yang Hui, Director, Intelligence Department, PLA General Staff Department Rear Admiral Yi Changzhi, Deputy Chief of Staff, PLA Navy Major General Zhu Chenghu, Director, Department of International Strategic Studies, PLA National Defense University (NDU) Senior Captain Guan Youfei, Deputy Director, MND/FAO Senior Colonel Wang Kebin, Deputy Director, Operations Department, PLA General Staff Department Major General Zhao Ning, PRC Defense Attache in Washington Senior Captain Li Ji, Director, North American and Oceania Bureau, MND/FAO Councilor Ma Zhanwu, North American and Oceania Affairs, MFA Lieutenant Colonel Chu Weiwei, Interpreter, MND/FAO ¶17. (U) USDP has cleared this cable. GOLDBERG