CHINA/RUSSIA: CHINESE SCHOLAR AND RUSSIAN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIJING 001661 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/18/2029 TAGS: PREL PGOV EFIN ENRG EWWT EPET MARR CH RS SUBJECT: CHINA/RUSSIA: CHINESE SCHOLAR AND RUSSIAN DIPLOMATS OFFER CONTRASTING VIEWS ON STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP Classified By: Classified by Acting Political Section Chief Mark Lamber t. Reasons 1.4 (b/d). Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) Despite China and Russia's public statements about the importance of their strategic partnership, neither country viewed its bilateral relationship as its top foreign policy priority, a Chinese expert on Russia told PolOff June 15. The scholar predicted that the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit would not achieve many tangible results and that China's main priority for the SCO was to develop relations with Central Asia without upsetting Russia. He said a lack of mutual trust and anti-Russian sentiments in China remained barriers to improved relations. Our contact also noted that China was skeptical about the benefits of attending the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) leaders meeting because of little common ground among the four nations and only reluctantly agreed in order to give developing countries a greater voice in the IMF and other international institutions. In contrast to the scholar's view, two Beijing-based Russian diplomats stressed that relations were "stronger than ever," downplayed reports of differences with China in the SCO, argued that Chinese people had a generally positive view of Russia and trumpeted the common goals of the BRIC countries. END SUMMARY. Barriers to a Strategic Partnership -------------- ¶2. (C) Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) Institute of Russian Studies scholar Jiang Yi told PolOff June 15 that the main barriers to better relations between China and Russia were the lack of trust on both sides and the difficulty both countries faced translating the principles of their strategic partnership into concrete measures. He asserted that building good relations with Russia was China's second most important foreign policy priority after improving relations with the United States and that Russia viewed relations with China as less important than its relationship with the United States, the European Union and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). He argued that China's Russia policy would remain consistent despite future changes in leadership because China needed a stable relationship with its northern neighbor. Stable relations were necessary given the two countries' long shared border and China's need for Russian support on international issues. Russians Say Relations Are "Stronger Than Ever" -------------- -- ¶3. (C) In a June 15 meeting with PolOff, Russian Embassy Political Officers Dimitry Agafonov and Ivan Zhelokhovtsev relayed standard Russian talking points that ties between Russia and China were "stronger than ever." Agafonov asserted that good relations were a priority for both countries and were based on common views on international issues and strong economic ties. He acknowledged tensions over the growing trade imbalance and noted that Russia wanted to sell China more high-tech products, including advanced nuclear energy technology. Agafonov said Russia was disappointed that Westinghouse secured a deal to build a nuclear power plant in Guangzhou, arguing that Westinghouse lacked relevant experience, while Russian firms had considerable expertise in this area. China Sees SCO as an Effective Way to Engage with Central Asia -------------- -------------- ¶4. (C) Chinese scholar Jiang said that, while China and Russia shared concerns about U.S. influence in Central Asia, China was also monitoring closely Russia's role in the region and viewed the SCO as an effective way to develop relations with Central Asia without upsetting Russia. He noted that the main issues at the just-concluded SCO summit in Yekaterinburg were the financial crisis, cooperation on anti-terrorism, and standards for admitting new members ) predicting that no concrete measures would be adopted there. Jiang suggested that previous attempts at economic cooperation within the SCO had not been successful because Russia had not been strong enough to lead, but now that China had made economic cooperation a priority, there would be a BEIJING 00001661 002 OF 003 greater chance of success. Jiang pointed to construction of a road from China to Uzbekistan through Kyrgyzstan and a new railroad from Xinjiang to Almaty as examples of tangible SCO cooperation. Russia Downplays Differences with China in SCO -------------- - ¶5. (C) In contrast, Russian EmbOff Agafonov downplayed media reports of differences between China and Russia over their goals for the SCO and denied contentions that Russia was only interested in security cooperation and that China was only interested in economic cooperation. He noted that the main focus of the June 15-16 SCO Summit in Yekaterinburg was to exchange views on improving cooperation on the global financial crisis, discuss Afghanistan, and decide on a structure for adding new members. When pressed about concrete outcomes, Agafonov noted that the SCO was still a "growing organization" and that it would take time before concrete results emerged. He cited divisions among the Central Asian countries over water and other issues as the biggest impediment to the SCO's development. Anti-Russian Sentiments in China Hinder Relations -------------- -------------- ¶6. (C) Chinese scholar Jiang noted that many Chinese held negative views of Russia that were occasionally expressed on the Internet. He cited historical reasons for such prejudices such as Russia's annexation of Chinese territory, adding that more recently, PRC frustrations stemmed from widely-held perceptions of Russia as "unpredictable and unreliable." Jiang observed that many Chinese businessmen and lower-level officials had unpleasant experiences dealing with Russian immigration officials. Chinese Have Positive View of Russia? -------------- ¶7. (C) Contrasting Jiang's views, Russian EmbOff Agafonov argued that Chinese people generally had a positive view of Russia. He said many Chinese students had called the Russian Embassy seeking information on studying Russian but acknowledged the difficulty in finding places to learn Russian in China. Agafonov said some Chinese had faced discrimination in Moscow from Russian "nationalists," but Zhelokhovtsev argued that the Chinese "don't have it as bad as others." Russian Arms Sales to China -------------- ¶8. (C) Chinese scholar Jiang downplayed the prospects of future large-scale arms deals with Russia because China's weapons production capabilities had advanced considerably while Russia's had somewhat deteriorated. As evidence, he cited Chinese military contacts who were critical of a recent Indian purchase of Russian arms, suggesting that the Indians paid too much for weapons that looked more formidable than they actually were. When asked about the sharp decline in Russian weapons sales to China, Russian EmbOff Agafonov said arms sales were a normal part of bilateral relations. He said he knew of no plans to increase military sales in the near term but insisted that such matters were for private companies to decide. Contrasting Views on BRIC -------------- ¶9. (C) Turning to the BRIC, Chinese scholar Jiang said that China had been reluctant to participate in the BRIC leaders meeting given China's concerns that the four countries' interests were too divergent to yield significant results. He noted that China had previously resisted Russia's attempts to organize a leaders meeting and only agreed to participate after discussions on the margins of the April G-20 summit in London. Jiang asserted that China ultimately agreed to attend because of the global financial crisis and a desire to give developing countries a greater voice in the IMF and other international institutions. In contrast to this view, Russian EmbOff Agafonov trumpeted the potential for international cooperation with China, arguing that Russia had common goals with Brazil, India, and China and that the BRIC was a useful forum to address the global financial crisis. BEIJING 00001661 003 OF 003 PICCUTA