CHINESE NEW YEAR TRAVEL RUSH BEGINS; PRESIDENT HU

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIJING 000150 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/16/2029 TAGS: PGOV PROP ECON ELTN SOCI CH SUBJECT: CHINESE NEW YEAR TRAVEL RUSH BEGINS; PRESIDENT HU JINTAO DEMANDS OFFICIALS SOLVE TICKET SHORTAGES REF: A. OSC CPP20090115968198 ¶B. 08 BEIJING 390 ¶C. 08 BEIJING 335 Classified By: Political Minister Counselor Aubrey Carlson. Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (SBU) With China's Lunar New Year travel rush officially underway migrant workers, students and middle-class residents are queuing for hours to snatch up scarce train tickets. Severe ticket shortages, allegedly exacerbated by the hoarding and scalping of railway passes, led Chinese President Hu Jintao to issue a statement January 14 expressing concern and ordering railway officials to make more tickets available. China's Ministry of Railways is engaging in a media blitz to assure the public that ticket scalping is under control, but Internet surveys reveal deep public skepticism about the fairness of the ticketing system. Eager to avoid a repeat of the disastrous 2008 Lunar New Year, when the Government's clumsy response to massive snowstorms that struck during the holidays led to chaos along China's road and rail networks, officials are boosting security and keeping an eye on the weather, which so far is cooperating. Some migrant workers have said they are giving up on plans to return home due to the lack of tickets. A deputy mayor in Henan Province told PolOff that his town expects some of this year's returnees to remain after the holidays as the slowing economy causes coastal manufacturing jobs to dry up. End Summary. NEW YEAR TRAVEL UP DESPITE SLOWING ECONOMY -------------- ¶2. (U) China's annual Lunar New Year travel rush ("chun yun," literally "spring transport") officially began January 11 and will last through February 19. China's National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) reported earlier this month that the 2009 Spring Festival will involve 2.3 billion individual trips on all forms of transport, an increase of 3.5 percent over 2008 figures. Approximately 118 million of these trips will be made by rail, according to the NDRC, representing an increase of eight percent compared to the 2008 Lunar New Year period. HU JINTAO DEMANDS HELP FOR THE TICKETLESS -------------- ¶3. (U) In a dispatch of the official Xinhua News Agency (ref A),Chinese President Hu Jintao expressed concern January 14 about the lack of train tickets and instructed the Ministry of Railways to "brainstorm" on ways for increasing ticket availability and "promoting passenger convenience." Politburo Standing Committee Member Zhou Yongkang, who is in charge of China's security apparatus, along with Vice Premier and Politburo Member Zhang Dejiang, urged the Ministry to investigate the ticket shortages, according to the Xinhua release. Hu's comments came after a week of heavy media coverage, including a January 13 special report on CCTV's "News 1 plus 1" program, of the difficulty Spring Festival travelers are having purchasing tickets. RAILWAY SAYS CORRUPTION UNDER CONTROL... -------------- ¶4. (U) As the New Year's rush got underway, railway officials began a media blitz to promote their efforts to stop ticket scalping. Railway Ministry spokesperson Wang Yongping, in a January 9 interview with a government web portal (www.GOV.cn),said that the Ministry is forbidding railway ticket clerks from bringing cash, cell phones or other "personal items" into the ticketing booth. These measures are aimed at halting the once rampant practice of corrupt railway employees illegally diverting tickets to scalpers. During a January 15 press conference, Vice Minister of Railways Wang Zhiguo stated that 30,000 police have been enlisted into the fight against ticket scalping, noting that 2,390 people have been detained since January 1. Wang defended China's rail system, saying low capacity is the primary reason for the dearth of tickets. China's investment in its rail system, Wang BEIJING 00000150 002 OF 003 stressed, has for decades failed to keep pace with GDP growth. ...BUT MANY UNCONVINCED -------------- ¶5. (U) Despite railway officials' public relations efforts, skepticism runs rampant regarding the fairness of ticket sales. According to an Internet poll published on the Xinhua News Agency website, 68 percent of respondents said ticket scalping is the main reason for the shortage of train tickets. A video of a ticketing clerk at a Beijing rail station, shot January 10 by a person in line, showed the ticket seller printing ticket after ticket while refusing to sell any to the people at her window. Release of the video to the public via the Internet sparked outrage among netizens and received over one million views online. In response to the uproar, Beijing railway officials made a public statement January 12 explaining that the ticket printing in the video was part of "normal operations" and stating that the seller was not hoarding tickets for herself. During his January 15 press conference, Railways Vice Minister Wang Zhiguo reiterated that the clerk was doing nothing wrong but apologized for the "misunderstanding" the incident caused. HIGH SECURITY AT BEIJING STATION -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Beijing's main train station was crowded but orderly January 15. The security presence at the station rivaled that observed during the Olympic Games in August 2008. In the window of one police van was a sign with the slogan "Strike Hard Against Ticket Scalpers" offering a reward for reporting illegal ticket sales. While Public Security Bureau (gong an) officers patrolled outside, inside the station PolOff observed People's Armed Police soldiers standing at ticketing windows and between lines. Tickets for most trains were sold out, though several trains still had "standing tickets" (i.e., with no guaranteed seat or berth) for sale. NEED TO AVOID REPEAT OF 2008 SNOWSTORM DISASTER -------------- -- ¶7. (C) Renmin University sociology professor Hong Dayong (protect) told PolOff January 16 that the Central Government is concerned about maintaining stability and avoiding a repeat of the disastrous 2008 New Year holiday, when a clumsy and tardy response to the largest snowstorm to hit south and central China in 50 years generated considerable public anger. The pressure on average Chinese to make it home before the New Year (which falls on January 26 this year) coupled with the stress of waiting in line breeds desperation. While Hong said there may be "isolated demonstrations" over the ticket shortage, the situation is not serious enough to pose a "significant" stability problem. So far, the 2009 holiday has gone much better than 2008 in terms of weather. As of January 16, the National Meteorological Center of China was forecasting clear weather for most of the country with a slight warming trend in the south. GROUP SALES DISADVANTAGE MIGRANTS -------------- ¶8. (C) Liu Ming (protect),Office Director for Little Bird, an NGO that assists migrant workers, told PolOff January 15 that expanded programs to allow universities and large companies to purchase tickets on behalf of students and employees help explain why tickets seem scarcer this year. These large institutions enjoy priority access to tickets, Liu explained, leaving fewer for individual purchasers and putting migrants who work for small businesses at a disadvantage. Liu said he purchased his own train ticket home through friends at a large firm. Little Bird, he said, considered entering the program to purchase blocks of tickets on behalf of migrant workers, but the RMB 500,000 (USD 73,000) deposit required by railway authorities was "too steep." SOME MIGRANTS GIVE UP GOING HOME -------------- ¶9. (C) Migrant workers and students with whom PolOff BEIJING 00000150 003 OF 003 spoke in Beijing reported mixed success in obtaining tickets. The line outside a railway ticket office in northwest Beijing on January 15 stretched for several hundred feet. Cheng Qingshu, a student at Beijing Sport University who was ten people away from the ticket window, told PolOff he had already waited in line for over three hours in freezing weather. Cheng said he was trying to purchase a ticket to Nanchang, Jiangxi Province, on behalf of a friend. Cheng, who is from Hunan Province, said he secured his own ticket home by going through the university. Wang Yonggang, a migrant worker from Hohhot, Inner Mongolia, told PolOff January 14 that he gave up on returning home for the Chinese New Year after waiting in line for three hours only to be told all tickets were sold out. Wang said it was "impossible" to purchase tickets through normal channels. Li Shuxi, a construction worker from Henan, likewise said he will spend the Chinese New Year in Beijing rather than fight the crowds. Li said his wife and grown children are all working in Beijing so he feels less need to return to Henan for the holiday. HOW MANY MIGRANTS WILL RETURN AFTER THE NEW YEAR? -------------- -------------- ¶10. (C) Wang Yi (protect),who runs a preschool for migrant children in the northwest outskirts of Beijing, told PolOff January 15 that even though migrants are gradually enjoying better treatment in the capital, including easier access to public schools, the hardships associated with returning home for the Lunar New Year have not diminished. Nevertheless, Wang said, the majority of his students will return to their home villages during New Year. Wang said that even though the economy is slowing, he does not sense that large numbers of migrants have been laid off and most, if not all, of his students will be back at school after the holiday. ¶11. (C) By contrast, Gao Jianfeng (protect),a Deputy Mayor of Shangqiu City in Henan Province, told PolOff January 14 that he is expecting a higher number of New Year returnees to his town compared to 2008 because the slowing economy has left many migrants with "extra time on their hands." Gao said he expects that some of these workers will chose to remain in Shangqui rather than go back to uncertain job prospects in coastal regions. Gao, however, said Shangqiu officials are having difficulty estimating exactly how many will want to stay and are apprehensive about the task of helping returnees find new employment locally. Gao said Shangqiu leaders have decided to concentrate their resources on providing returned migrants with loans to purchase seed and fertilizer so that they can go back to farming. Randt