CHINESE NEW YEAR TRAVEL RUSH BEGINS; PRESIDENT HU

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIJING 000150

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/16/2029
TAGS: PGOV PROP ECON ELTN SOCI CH
SUBJECT: CHINESE NEW YEAR TRAVEL RUSH BEGINS; PRESIDENT HU
JINTAO DEMANDS OFFICIALS SOLVE TICKET SHORTAGES

REF: A. OSC CPP20090115968198

B. 08 BEIJING 390

C. 08 BEIJING 335

Classified By: Political Minister Counselor Aubrey Carlson.
Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (SBU) With China's Lunar New Year travel rush
officially underway migrant workers, students and
middle-class residents are queuing for hours to snatch
up scarce train tickets. Severe ticket shortages,
allegedly exacerbated by the hoarding and scalping of
railway passes, led Chinese President Hu Jintao to
issue a statement January 14 expressing concern and
ordering railway officials to make more tickets
available. China's Ministry of Railways is engaging
in a media blitz to assure the public that ticket
scalping is under control, but Internet surveys reveal
deep public skepticism about the fairness of the
ticketing system. Eager to avoid a repeat of the
disastrous 2008 Lunar New Year, when the Government's
clumsy response to massive snowstorms that struck
during the holidays led to chaos along China's road
and rail networks, officials are boosting security and
keeping an eye on the weather, which so far is
cooperating. Some migrant workers have said they are
giving up on plans to return home due to the lack of
tickets. A deputy mayor in Henan Province told PolOff
that his town expects some of this year's returnees to
remain after the holidays as the slowing economy
causes coastal manufacturing jobs to dry up. End
Summary.

NEW YEAR TRAVEL UP DESPITE SLOWING ECONOMY
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2. (U) China's annual Lunar New Year travel rush
("chun yun," literally "spring transport") officially
began January 11 and will last through February 19.
China's National Development and Reform Commission
(NDRC) reported earlier this month that the 2009
Spring Festival will involve 2.3 billion individual
trips on all forms of transport, an increase of 3.5
percent over 2008 figures. Approximately 118 million
of these trips will be made by rail, according to the
NDRC, representing an increase of eight percent
compared to the 2008 Lunar New Year period.

HU JINTAO DEMANDS HELP FOR THE TICKETLESS
--------------


3. (U) In a dispatch of the official Xinhua News
Agency (ref A),Chinese President Hu Jintao expressed
concern January 14 about the lack of train tickets and
instructed the Ministry of Railways to "brainstorm" on
ways for increasing ticket availability and "promoting
passenger convenience." Politburo Standing Committee
Member Zhou Yongkang, who is in charge of China's
security apparatus, along with Vice Premier and
Politburo Member Zhang Dejiang, urged the Ministry to
investigate the ticket shortages, according to the
Xinhua release. Hu's comments came after a week of
heavy media coverage, including a January 13 special
report on CCTV's "News 1 plus 1" program, of the
difficulty Spring Festival travelers are having
purchasing tickets.

RAILWAY SAYS CORRUPTION UNDER CONTROL...
--------------


4. (U) As the New Year's rush got underway, railway
officials began a media blitz to promote their efforts
to stop ticket scalping. Railway Ministry
spokesperson Wang Yongping, in a January 9 interview
with a government web portal (www.GOV.cn),said that
the Ministry is forbidding railway ticket clerks from
bringing cash, cell phones or other "personal items"
into the ticketing booth. These measures are aimed at
halting the once rampant practice of corrupt railway
employees illegally diverting tickets to scalpers.
During a January 15 press conference, Vice Minister of
Railways Wang Zhiguo stated that 30,000 police have
been enlisted into the fight against ticket scalping,
noting that 2,390 people have been detained since
January 1. Wang defended China's rail system, saying
low capacity is the primary reason for the dearth of
tickets. China's investment in its rail system, Wang

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stressed, has for decades failed to keep pace with GDP
growth.

...BUT MANY UNCONVINCED
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5. (U) Despite railway officials' public relations
efforts, skepticism runs rampant regarding the
fairness of ticket sales. According to an Internet
poll published on the Xinhua News Agency website, 68
percent of respondents said ticket scalping is the
main reason for the shortage of train tickets. A
video of a ticketing clerk at a Beijing rail station,
shot January 10 by a person in line, showed the ticket
seller printing ticket after ticket while refusing to
sell any to the people at her window. Release of the
video to the public via the Internet sparked outrage
among netizens and received over one million views
online. In response to the uproar, Beijing railway
officials made a public statement January 12
explaining that the ticket printing in the video was
part of "normal operations" and stating that the
seller was not hoarding tickets for herself. During
his January 15 press conference, Railways Vice
Minister Wang Zhiguo reiterated that the clerk was
doing nothing wrong but apologized for the
"misunderstanding" the incident caused.

HIGH SECURITY AT BEIJING STATION
--------------


6. (SBU) Beijing's main train station was crowded but
orderly January 15. The security presence at the
station rivaled that observed during the Olympic Games
in August 2008. In the window of one police van was a
sign with the slogan "Strike Hard Against Ticket
Scalpers" offering a reward for reporting illegal
ticket sales. While Public Security Bureau (gong an)
officers patrolled outside, inside the station PolOff
observed People's Armed Police soldiers standing at
ticketing windows and between lines. Tickets for most
trains were sold out, though several trains still had
"standing tickets" (i.e., with no guaranteed seat or
berth) for sale.

NEED TO AVOID REPEAT OF 2008 SNOWSTORM DISASTER
-------------- --


7. (C) Renmin University sociology professor Hong
Dayong (protect) told PolOff January 16 that the
Central Government is concerned about maintaining
stability and avoiding a repeat of the disastrous 2008
New Year holiday, when a clumsy and tardy response to
the largest snowstorm to hit south and central China
in 50 years generated considerable public anger. The
pressure on average Chinese to make it home before the
New Year (which falls on January 26 this year) coupled
with the stress of waiting in line breeds desperation.
While Hong said there may be "isolated demonstrations"
over the ticket shortage, the situation is not serious
enough to pose a "significant" stability problem. So
far, the 2009 holiday has gone much better than 2008
in terms of weather. As of January 16, the National
Meteorological Center of China was forecasting clear
weather for most of the country with a slight warming
trend in the south.

GROUP SALES DISADVANTAGE MIGRANTS
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8. (C) Liu Ming (protect),Office Director for Little
Bird, an NGO that assists migrant workers, told PolOff
January 15 that expanded programs to allow
universities and large companies to purchase tickets
on behalf of students and employees help explain why
tickets seem scarcer this year. These large
institutions enjoy priority access to tickets, Liu
explained, leaving fewer for individual purchasers and
putting migrants who work for small businesses at a
disadvantage. Liu said he purchased his own train
ticket home through friends at a large firm. Little
Bird, he said, considered entering the program to
purchase blocks of tickets on behalf of migrant
workers, but the RMB 500,000 (USD 73,000) deposit
required by railway authorities was "too steep."

SOME MIGRANTS GIVE UP GOING HOME
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9. (C) Migrant workers and students with whom PolOff

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spoke in Beijing reported mixed success in obtaining
tickets. The line outside a railway ticket office in
northwest Beijing on January 15 stretched for several
hundred feet. Cheng Qingshu, a student at Beijing
Sport University who was ten people away from the
ticket window, told PolOff he had already waited in
line for over three hours in freezing weather. Cheng
said he was trying to purchase a ticket to Nanchang,
Jiangxi Province, on behalf of a friend. Cheng, who
is from Hunan Province, said he secured his own ticket
home by going through the university. Wang Yonggang,
a migrant worker from Hohhot, Inner Mongolia, told
PolOff January 14 that he gave up on returning home
for the Chinese New Year after waiting in line for
three hours only to be told all tickets were sold out.
Wang said it was "impossible" to purchase tickets
through normal channels. Li Shuxi, a construction
worker from Henan, likewise said he will spend the
Chinese New Year in Beijing rather than fight the
crowds. Li said his wife and grown children are all
working in Beijing so he feels less need to return to
Henan for the holiday.

HOW MANY MIGRANTS WILL RETURN AFTER THE NEW YEAR?
-------------- --------------


10. (C) Wang Yi (protect),who runs a preschool for
migrant children in the northwest outskirts of
Beijing, told PolOff January 15 that even though
migrants are gradually enjoying better treatment in
the capital, including easier access to public
schools, the hardships associated with returning home
for the Lunar New Year have not diminished.
Nevertheless, Wang said, the majority of his students
will return to their home villages during New Year.
Wang said that even though the economy is slowing, he
does not sense that large numbers of migrants have
been laid off and most, if not all, of his students
will be back at school after the holiday.


11. (C) By contrast, Gao Jianfeng (protect),a Deputy
Mayor of Shangqiu City in Henan Province, told PolOff
January 14 that he is expecting a higher number of New
Year returnees to his town compared to 2008 because
the slowing economy has left many migrants with "extra
time on their hands." Gao said he expects that some
of these workers will chose to remain in Shangqui
rather than go back to uncertain job prospects in
coastal regions. Gao, however, said Shangqiu
officials are having difficulty estimating exactly how
many will want to stay and are apprehensive about the
task of helping returnees find new employment locally.
Gao said Shangqiu leaders have decided to concentrate
their resources on providing returned migrants with
loans to purchase seed and fertilizer so that they can
go back to farming.
Randt