STATE OF LAW COALITION BENEFITS FROM DA'WA'S APPEAL IN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BASRAH 000006 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 2/13/2019 TAGS: PGOV KDEM IZ SUBJECT: STATE OF LAW COALITION BENEFITS FROM DA'WA'S APPEAL IN BASRA REF: BAGHDAD 000124 BASRAH 00000006 001.2 OF 002 CLASSIFIED BY: Gordon Gray, Senior Advisor, AmEmbassy Baghdad, Department of State. REASON: 1.4 (b),(d) -------------- Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) In separate meetings in Basra on February 3 with Senior Advisor Gordon Gray, local Da'wa leaders and journalists predicted that Prime Minister Maliki's State of Law list would win a majority of the 35 seats on Basra's Provincial Council. They attributed the list's success to Prime Minister Maliki's popularity following last spring's Charge of the Knights operation; Da'wa's ability to project itself as a nationalist party (in contrast to ISCI, which used the same sectarian appeal it had employed in 2005); and to the weakness of the Sadrist trend. The journalists thought that the federal government would cooperate closely with the next governor and a Da'wa-led Provincial Council (PC) to bolster Da'wa nationally in the run-up to the elections for the Council of Representatives later this year. End summary. -------------- Da'wa Dominant -------------- ¶2. (C) Da'wa party members Chaltag Abu Sharad and Dheyaa Jaafar Hyjam were enthusiastic about the election results and predicted an outright majority for State of Law on the PC - approximately 20 of 35 seats. (Note: While final results are still to be determined, our analysis of seat allocation under Iraqi law indicates that this is about right. End note.) The magnitude of Da'wa's popularity in Basra had exceeded their expectations. According to Dheyaa Jaafar, coalition strategists had predicted a 30 percent approval rate at the ballot box, but post-election information was suggesting a larger victory, with Maliki's party winning about 50 percent of the vote. Subsequently, when the Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC) announced on February 5 that State of Law had won with 37 percent, local journalists Talib Al-Bedari (al-Furat TV),Ali Khalaf (Al-Arabia TV),and Majed Al-Brekan (Radio Sawa) expressed surprise at the results, believing the victory would be larger. ¶3. (C) The journalists and Da'wa members agreed that several factors had contributed to the State of Law coalition's success. All recognized that Da'wa had greatly benefited from Prime Minister Maliki's success in ending Shi'a militia control of Basra last spring. The militia experience, coupled with an ineffective PC dominated by religious parties, led to increasing negative attitudes among Basrawis toward religious extremism. This trend simultaneously benefited State of Law while weakening its main competitor, the ISCI/Badr-led "Al Shahid Al Mihrab List and Independent Power" coalition (290),as well as various Sadrist parties. List 290 finished second and will win approximately five seats; several other parties will hold one to three seats. -------------- Religion vs. Nationalism -------------- ¶4. (C) Journalist Ali Khalaf commented that ISCI and its Badr militia had unsuccessfully relied on the same sectarian appeal they had employed in 2005 to win votes. Although a religious party, Da'wa had capitalized on the changing public mood by adopting a more secular platform. Dehyaa Jaafar supported this view, commenting that Da'wa had sought to balance its ballot with both secular and religious candidates. The change in Basrawi attitudes caught many by surprise on election day. Talib Al-Bedari had assumed, like many political observers, that sectarian parties such as ISCI and Badr were going to outperform Da'wa at the ballot box. In retrospect, Da'wa party member Jaafar concluded that ISCI had enjoyed success during the last provincial elections because of a spike in public religious identification. The phenomenon was an anomaly, according to Jaafar, who added that Iraqi society has never been dominated by religion. ¶5. (C) Distancing itself from religion, Da'wa had also managed to project itself as a nationalist party and thus capitalize on local anti-Iranian sentiment during the election. Both the journalists and Da'wa members noted that strong, nationalist entities were lacking on the ballot and that Da'wa, as part of the State of Law list, filled that void. Radio Sawa correspondent Al-Brekan commented that while the public wants political leaders who are willing to stand up to Iran, ISCI and the Sadrists neglected to incorporate that theme into their platforms. -------------- New Provincial Government Still TBD -------------- BASRAH 00000006 002.2 OF 002 ¶6. (C) Dr. Chaltag Abu Sharad, the top candidate on the Da'wa/State of Law list, expressed his hope that all members of the new PC would work in unity to tackle such key issues as corruption and enforcement of the rule of law. He is a leading candidate to be either the new PC Chairman or the next Governor. Negotiations among parties for the top positions in the provincial government are ongoing and likely will not be concluded until late February. The journalists envisioned the federal government cooperating closely with the next governor and a Da'wa-led Provincial Council to bolster Da'wa nationally in the run-up to the elections for the Council of Representatives later this year. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶7. (C) Although the victory of the Prime Minister's list did not turn out to be as large as our interlocutors had anticipated in the first couple days after the election, the public's preference for State of Law on election day surprised most observers. The coalition clearly benefited from its association with Prime Minister Maliki, who has enjoyed popularity in Basra since Operation Charge-of-the-Knights. The party also gained additional support in rural areas of the province through the Prime Minister's creation of tribal support councils. (See reftel.) ¶8. (C) Public attitudes in Basra have changed. Opinion polls and election results illustrate the degree to which religious parties such as ISCI and Badr are out of synch with local attitudes. Their ability to survive will depend on how well they are able to adapt to reflect the will of the people. End comment. O'CONNOR