THE FINAL COMPLAINTS OF BASRA GOVERNOR WA'ELI

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BASRAH 000011 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 3/4/2019 TAGS: PGOV KDEM IZ SUBJECT: THE FINAL COMPLAINTS OF BASRA GOVERNOR WA'ELI REF: A) BASRAH 0006; B) 2008 BAGHDAD 2268; C) BASRAH 0003 BASRAH 00000011 001.2 OF 002 CLASSIFIED BY: Mark O'Connor, Deputy Director, Regional Embassy Office Basrah, Department of State. REASON: 1.4 (b),(d) -------------- Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) In a February 24 meeting with the REO, outgoing Governor Mohammed Wa'eli) characterized the State of Law coalition's victory as a surprise to everyone, including Prime Minister Maliki, and noted the fierce fighting within the coalition over the choice for governor. Wa'eli, accompanied by Provincial Council (PC) member and fellow Fadhilah member Aqeel Taalib Khadim al-Faryji, complained about Iranian interference in local politics and the security forces and recommended that American forces remain in Iraq to train and advise the security forces for five years. End summary. -------------- Elections -------------- ¶2. (C) Commenting on the recent provincial elections, Wa'eli, a member of the Fadhilah party, said that nearly everyone, including Prime Minister Maliki, had been surprised by the State of Law coalition's overwhelming victory. (See ref A.) According to Wa'eli, Maliki had expressed much lower expectations in a meeting prior to the election and appeared content with Wa'eli's prediction of an eight to ten seat gain. During the same meeting, Wa'eli said that the Prime Minister had expressed interest in forming a coalition with Fadhilah, both at the provincial and national levels. Wa'eli said he has apparently abandoned this idea, however, as a result of State of Law's decisive victory. -------------- -------------- Candidates for Governor and Chairman -------------- -------------- ¶3. (C) Wa'eli described the current competition for governor within the State of Law coalition as "fierce." He said possible candidates included new PC member Jabaar al-Amin, Deputy Minister of Health, Amer al-Kuza'I, and Minister of State for Parliamentary Affairs and Acting Minister of Justice Safa al-Safi. Wa'eli commented that al-Safi had had his sights set on the position for some time. He made no attempt to hide his contempt for al-Safi, with whom he has had much disagreement over the past year. (See ref B). Regarding possible candidates for PC Chairman, Wa'eli gave new PC member Dr. Chaltag Abu Sharad the inside track. He also alluded to a second candidate from Da'wa Iraq, but could not recall his name at the time. -------------- Iranian influence -------------- ¶4. (C) Wa'eli vented frustration over foreign meddling in local affairs. He accused the government of Iran of attempting to recruit eight new PC members from the State of Law coalition, in an attempt to compensate for the loss of their agents caused by the "Al Shahid Al Mihrab List and Independent Power" coalition's poor performance in the provincial elections. Wa'eli said that recruiting allies among PC members would not be difficult for Iran, as all members-including those in Da'wa, were subservient to Iranian interests. -------------- Security -------------- ¶5. (C) Concerning the future of Iraq, Wa'eli related a pessimistic post-Coalition-Force view. Fearful of Iraq's eastern neighbor, he vehemently warned that Iranian subversives had infiltrated all government institutions in Basra and that they were waiting for the Coalition Forces to withdraw. When pressed for examples of infiltration, Wa'eli cited the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) -- primarily the police -- as being inundated with Badr members. He accused Council of Representatives (COR) member Hadi al-Ameri and the Deputy Minister of Border Forces, Ahmed al-Kafaji of having been recruited into Iranian service. He asserted that Ameri, as a member of the COR Security Commission, controlled the Iraqi Army. ¶6. (C) Wa'eli suggested that five years more of American military presence in Iraq would be sufficient, if that time were used to advise the ISF on methods for purging militia members from its ranks. He said that the U.S. should focus on containing Iran, as that nation will attempt to dominate the BASRAH 00000011 002.2 OF 002 region. Wa'eli recommended that any interaction with Iran should be balanced with engagement from other neighboring countries. -------------- Economy -------------- ¶7. (C) Wa'eli commented that Iraq was feeling the pinch of the worldwide economic crisis. He blamed the Minister of Oil, Hussein al-Shahristani, for low production levels, which have made the country dependent on foreign oil. He noted that the falling price of oil, combined with an increase in civil servants' wages, had depleted federal funds and backed the government into a corner. To improve the situation, he said that the country needed to increase oil production and encourage investment. He acknowledged that investors would not comeunless the ISF could ensure a sustained stable security environment. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶8. (C) Wa'eli is now political poison. He has become extremely unpopular during his tenure as governor, due to his inability to deliver improvements in public services. This contributed to his Fadhilah party's huge defeat at the polls and his inability to force a referendum for the creation of a federal regional in Basra, despite general public support for the concept. (See ref C.) Although the selection of Safa al-Safi as a choice for governor does not appear likely, the idea has been suggested by several REO contacts and thus can not be dismissed. Neither REO nor UK FCO believe al-Safi would have a positive influence on the province, as he has misused GOI reconstruction funds and has circumventedent established provincial and national political structures . (See ref B.) Wa'eli's antipathy to Iran is well-known and he appears to label anyone with a Shiite political affiliation as "Iranian." He does not appear to have proof that COR member Hadi al-Ameri and Deputy Minister of Border Forces al-Kafaji are in the "service of Iran," apart from their affiliation with Badr. End comment. O'CONNOR