CAR: STARVING IN THE GARDEN OF EDEN

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 BANGUI 000196

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/C
PARIS FOR RKANEDA
LONDON FOR PLORD
NAIROBI FOR AKARAS
AFRICOM FOR JKUGEL
INR FOR CNEARY
DRL FOR SCRAMPTON

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM PINR ECON CT
SUBJECT: CAR: STARVING IN THE GARDEN OF EDEN

REF: A. A 09 Bangui 152

B. REF: B 09 Bangui 155 and previous

C. REF: C 09 Bangui 190

D. REF: D 09 Bangui 181

E. REF: E 09 Bangui 191

F. REF: F 09 Bangui 182

G. REF: G 09 Bangui 190; 09 Bangui 50; 07 Bangui 292

H. REF: H 09 Bangui 172

I. REF: I 09 Bangui 123

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1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Despite massive natural wealth that should
provide a comfortable standard of living for its 4.3 million
inhabitants, the CAR continues to struggle with extreme poverty,
malnutrition, rampant banditry and several festering
insurgencies. Our key goals of promoting a stable and
prosperous state at the heart of Africa and alleviating the
humanitarian crisis are inhibited by a government focused almost
exclusively on the immediate enrichment of a tiny political
elite known as the ``Oubanguian'', which has not proven to be a
sincere partner for private investment or international
development assistance. In this challenging context, Post seeks
to work with Washington and international partners to develop a
strategy for the following time horizons:

-- SHORT TERM: alleviation of immediate humanitarian needs and
preparation for national elections in 2010;

-- MEDIUM TERM: reinforcing the peace process and security
sector reform to promote basic stability and strengthen civil
society and constitutional institutions outside of the
executive;

-- LONG TERM: development of natural and human resources that
will obviate the need for further humanitarian assistance and
make the CAR an exporter of food instead of refugees. END
SUMMARY.


2. (SBU) 2010 promises to be a critical year for the Central
African Republic (CAR). According to the constitution, the
government must conduct elections in the first half of the year.
In 2008 it looked like there was serious progress towards nation
reconciliation - a national amnesty was declared and several
rebel groups signed peace accords and agreed to meet with the
government (CARG) for a national political dialogue. Former
president Patasse even returned to the CAR for the dialogue.
Behind the scenes, however, things were already beginning to
unravel. Actions within the UFDR rebel group as well as actions
by the CARG to ``reform'' the diamond trade cut off thousands
from their livelihoods (Ref A),leading to new violence in areas
previously at peace, new refugee flows to Chad, the formal
announcement of new rebel groups (Ref A and B),and increasing
reports of malnutrition in both conflict and non-conflict areas
(Ref C). The ``Government of National Unity'' is widely viewed
as anything but, and the committees charged with implementing
the conclusions of the dialogue and organizing the 2010
elections are not seen to be making any progress (Ref D). With
this as background, and at the two year anniversary of restoring
U.S./CAR relations to the ambassadorial level, a review of
AmEmbassy Bangui's programs and goals is warranted.

--------------
MOVING BACKWARD
--------------


3. (SBU)During meetings with colleagues in the diplomatic corps,
NGO representatives, reporters and others, we often pull out a
post-independence historical map of the CAR which graphically
demonstrates (at least theoretically) the economic and
infrastructural development the country once enjoyed. Since
then, the country has been in decline:

-- In 2008, the Central African Republic ranked 178 out of 179
on the Human Development Index. CAR and the Democratic Republic
of Congo are the only countries in Sub-Saharan Africa that have
not improved human development since the 1980s.

-- The UN has recorded about 130,000 people are displaced

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internally, in addition to 70,000 refugees in Chad and another
40,000 in Cameroon. There are only a few in Sudan, but this may
increase due to recent Lord's Resistance Army (LRA) activity
(Ref E).


-- A forthcoming UNICEF report reveals that many areas of the
country are suffering a population decline due to extreme infant
and maternal mortality rates (Ref F).

-- Since the end of the reign of Emperor Bokassa in 1979, the
number of large firms operating in CAR has dropped from over 300
to around 30.

-- According to the Ministry of Social Affairs, 300,000 children
(those members of the population under 18) have lost one or both
parents to HIV/AIDS. The national HIV/AIDS rate is said to be
six percent but is much higher in Bangui and the number overall
is growing.

-- This is despite massive natural resources - particularly
diamonds, gold, iron, uranium, and tropical woods - and fertile
land (the CAR once supported flourishing cotton, tobacco, and
coffee industries). Contacts indicate that only a fraction of
diamond exports pass through the formal state apparatus and
contribute to the budget through customs fees.


4. (SBU) The disasters that the Central African Republic endures
are not natural or caused by external political forces, but are
rather man-made and indigenous . The numerous rebel groups
compete with the government and each other not on the basis of
ideological differences, but due to the personal ambitions of
their leaders and competition over natural resources (diamond
mines in particular). With the exception of sporadic LRA
activity in the sparsely populated far east, conflict within the
CAR has caused extensive problems and outward refugee flows
towards Chad in the north and Sudan in the northeast (Ref G).
The CARG is quick to request assistance while at the same time
attempting to extort money from international firms that would
employ thousands of Central Africans and contribute millions to
the treasury if allowed to do business (Ref I).

--------------
OUR MESSAGE
--------------


5. (U) In line with our primary goal to support a stable and
prosperous state, we have consistently broadcast the following
messages to our Central African interlocutors:

-- To the rebels: President Bozize is the recognized, elected
leader of the CAR. The rebels have no ideological, religious,
or ethnic justification to take up arms against the government.
Indeed their only legitimate recourse is the peace process and
elections.

-- To opposition leaders: The USG supports the democratic
process, not partisan organizations. You must convince the
population of your merit by explaining a cohesive platform for
development, not simply criticizing the current administration.

-- To the CARG: We support you as the legitimate representatives
of the CAR, but as good governance reinforces this legitimacy,
rampant corruption, human rights abuses, and pervasive
mismanagement weakens it. A favorable business environment, one
that encourages domestic and foreign private investment, is the
answer for long-term development, not international assistance.


6. (SBU) COMMENT: Our challenge is to accomplish our security,
humanitarian, and development goals while dealing with a
government whose highest priorities are abusing the tools of
state to manipulate a clan spoils system and stay in power.
Reftel H details our short-term resource needs at the embassy .
In the longer-term, we believe that strengthening civil society
and key institutions (judiciary, legislature, army) outside of
the core executive could lead to a balance of power. Building

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upon President Obama's message in Accra, this support of
institutions and civil society will hopefully provide Central
Africans with the tools to succeed in their own right. Our
incipient elections program will begin this process by informing
the population of the electoral process and giving local NGOs
the tools to serve as watchdogs. The expansion of Radio Ndeke
Luka's broadcast reach and programming capacities will be
central not only to election year activities, but also to our
long term efforts to encourage human rights, good governance and
civic engagement. We are also facilitating the development of a
program of engagement between AFRICOM and the army, which will
provide capacity building to engage in humanitarian projects and
show the CARG that they have something to gain from cooperation
with the USG. END COMMENT.
COOK