CAR: STARVING IN THE GARDEN OF EDEN

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 BANGUI 000196 SENSITIVE SIPDIS DEPT FOR AF/C PARIS FOR RKANEDA LONDON FOR PLORD NAIROBI FOR AKARAS AFRICOM FOR JKUGEL INR FOR CNEARY DRL FOR SCRAMPTON E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM PINR ECON CT SUBJECT: CAR: STARVING IN THE GARDEN OF EDEN REF: A. A 09 Bangui 152 ¶B. REF: B 09 Bangui 155 and previous ¶C. REF: C 09 Bangui 190 ¶D. REF: D 09 Bangui 181 ¶E. REF: E 09 Bangui 191 ¶F. REF: F 09 Bangui 182 ¶G. REF: G 09 Bangui 190; 09 Bangui 50; 07 Bangui 292 ¶H. REF: H 09 Bangui 172 ¶I. REF: I 09 Bangui 123 BANGUI 00000196 001.2 OF 003 ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Despite massive natural wealth that should provide a comfortable standard of living for its 4.3 million inhabitants, the CAR continues to struggle with extreme poverty, malnutrition, rampant banditry and several festering insurgencies. Our key goals of promoting a stable and prosperous state at the heart of Africa and alleviating the humanitarian crisis are inhibited by a government focused almost exclusively on the immediate enrichment of a tiny political elite known as the ``Oubanguian'', which has not proven to be a sincere partner for private investment or international development assistance. In this challenging context, Post seeks to work with Washington and international partners to develop a strategy for the following time horizons: -- SHORT TERM: alleviation of immediate humanitarian needs and preparation for national elections in 2010; -- MEDIUM TERM: reinforcing the peace process and security sector reform to promote basic stability and strengthen civil society and constitutional institutions outside of the executive; -- LONG TERM: development of natural and human resources that will obviate the need for further humanitarian assistance and make the CAR an exporter of food instead of refugees. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (SBU) 2010 promises to be a critical year for the Central African Republic (CAR). According to the constitution, the government must conduct elections in the first half of the year. In 2008 it looked like there was serious progress towards nation reconciliation - a national amnesty was declared and several rebel groups signed peace accords and agreed to meet with the government (CARG) for a national political dialogue. Former president Patasse even returned to the CAR for the dialogue. Behind the scenes, however, things were already beginning to unravel. Actions within the UFDR rebel group as well as actions by the CARG to ``reform'' the diamond trade cut off thousands from their livelihoods (Ref A),leading to new violence in areas previously at peace, new refugee flows to Chad, the formal announcement of new rebel groups (Ref A and B),and increasing reports of malnutrition in both conflict and non-conflict areas (Ref C). The ``Government of National Unity'' is widely viewed as anything but, and the committees charged with implementing the conclusions of the dialogue and organizing the 2010 elections are not seen to be making any progress (Ref D). With this as background, and at the two year anniversary of restoring U.S./CAR relations to the ambassadorial level, a review of AmEmbassy Bangui's programs and goals is warranted. -------------- MOVING BACKWARD -------------- ¶3. (SBU)During meetings with colleagues in the diplomatic corps, NGO representatives, reporters and others, we often pull out a post-independence historical map of the CAR which graphically demonstrates (at least theoretically) the economic and infrastructural development the country once enjoyed. Since then, the country has been in decline: -- In 2008, the Central African Republic ranked 178 out of 179 on the Human Development Index. CAR and the Democratic Republic of Congo are the only countries in Sub-Saharan Africa that have not improved human development since the 1980s. -- The UN has recorded about 130,000 people are displaced BANGUI 00000196 002.2 OF 003 internally, in addition to 70,000 refugees in Chad and another 40,000 in Cameroon. There are only a few in Sudan, but this may increase due to recent Lord's Resistance Army (LRA) activity (Ref E). -- A forthcoming UNICEF report reveals that many areas of the country are suffering a population decline due to extreme infant and maternal mortality rates (Ref F). -- Since the end of the reign of Emperor Bokassa in 1979, the number of large firms operating in CAR has dropped from over 300 to around 30. -- According to the Ministry of Social Affairs, 300,000 children (those members of the population under 18) have lost one or both parents to HIV/AIDS. The national HIV/AIDS rate is said to be six percent but is much higher in Bangui and the number overall is growing. -- This is despite massive natural resources - particularly diamonds, gold, iron, uranium, and tropical woods - and fertile land (the CAR once supported flourishing cotton, tobacco, and coffee industries). Contacts indicate that only a fraction of diamond exports pass through the formal state apparatus and contribute to the budget through customs fees. ¶4. (SBU) The disasters that the Central African Republic endures are not natural or caused by external political forces, but are rather man-made and indigenous . The numerous rebel groups compete with the government and each other not on the basis of ideological differences, but due to the personal ambitions of their leaders and competition over natural resources (diamond mines in particular). With the exception of sporadic LRA activity in the sparsely populated far east, conflict within the CAR has caused extensive problems and outward refugee flows towards Chad in the north and Sudan in the northeast (Ref G). The CARG is quick to request assistance while at the same time attempting to extort money from international firms that would employ thousands of Central Africans and contribute millions to the treasury if allowed to do business (Ref I). -------------- OUR MESSAGE -------------- ¶5. (U) In line with our primary goal to support a stable and prosperous state, we have consistently broadcast the following messages to our Central African interlocutors: -- To the rebels: President Bozize is the recognized, elected leader of the CAR. The rebels have no ideological, religious, or ethnic justification to take up arms against the government. Indeed their only legitimate recourse is the peace process and elections. -- To opposition leaders: The USG supports the democratic process, not partisan organizations. You must convince the population of your merit by explaining a cohesive platform for development, not simply criticizing the current administration. -- To the CARG: We support you as the legitimate representatives of the CAR, but as good governance reinforces this legitimacy, rampant corruption, human rights abuses, and pervasive mismanagement weakens it. A favorable business environment, one that encourages domestic and foreign private investment, is the answer for long-term development, not international assistance. ¶6. (SBU) COMMENT: Our challenge is to accomplish our security, humanitarian, and development goals while dealing with a government whose highest priorities are abusing the tools of state to manipulate a clan spoils system and stay in power. Reftel H details our short-term resource needs at the embassy . In the longer-term, we believe that strengthening civil society and key institutions (judiciary, legislature, army) outside of the core executive could lead to a balance of power. Building BANGUI 00000196 003.2 OF 003 upon President Obama's message in Accra, this support of institutions and civil society will hopefully provide Central Africans with the tools to succeed in their own right. Our incipient elections program will begin this process by informing the population of the electoral process and giving local NGOs the tools to serve as watchdogs. The expansion of Radio Ndeke Luka's broadcast reach and programming capacities will be central not only to election year activities, but also to our long term efforts to encourage human rights, good governance and civic engagement. We are also facilitating the development of a program of engagement between AFRICOM and the army, which will provide capacity building to engage in humanitarian projects and show the CARG that they have something to gain from cooperation with the USG. END COMMENT. COOK