AUTHORITY VOID IN EASTERN CAR DRAGGING IN NEIGHBORS

UNCLAS BANGUI 000186 SENSITIVE SIPDIS DEPT FOR AF/C USUN FOR DMUERS PARIS FOR RKANEDA LONDON FOR PLORD NAIROBI FOR AKARAS AFRICOM FOR JKUGEL INR FOR CNEARY DRL FOR SCRAMPTON E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM PINR CT SU UG SUBJECT: AUTHORITY VOID IN EASTERN CAR DRAGGING IN NEIGHBORS REF: A - 09 BANGUI 152 AND PREVIOUS ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: The east of the Central African Republic (CAR) has long been home to a mix of Central African, Sudanese and Chadian pastoralists who have existed more or less out of the purview of their respective capitals. Recently, however, it has become an area overrun by poachers, brigands and rebels due to an almost complete lack of CAR government (CARG) presence and tribal competition over diamond mines (Ref A). Incursion into southeastern CAR by the Lord's Resistance Army (LRA) and the violence between cross-border ethnicities in the northeast are increasingly dragging Sudan and Uganda into the CAR's internal problems. The growing involvement of the Sudanese and Ugandans has also led to some speculation that they are maneuvering to gain influence in the region before the 2011 referendum on independence in Southern Sudan. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (SBU) During a recent meeting with the European Commission's military affairs advisor to President Bozize, DCM and POLOFF discussed the Central African Army's (FACA) role in the efforts against the LRA. Unhappy about the lack of coordination between the Ugandan Army (UPDF) and the FACA, the advisor mentioned that the UPDF elements operating in the CAR had their forward operating base in Southern Sudan rather than the CAR. He was firmly convinced that they were using the pursuit into the CAR of the LRA as a way make their presence in Southern Sudan a fait accompli in the lead up to 2011. ¶3. (SBU) Similarly, the government in Khartoum is taking an increased interest in the conflict in the Vakaga. The Vakaga has long been home to border crossing pastoralist and there is almost no formal delineation between the CAR and Sudan. The diamond-rich Vakaga looks to Sudan for most of its economic activity, and the violence of recent months has caught the attention of the government in Khartoum. A recent peace initiative signed between the warring Kara and Goula in Birao contained a telling clause: ``in conjunction with the delegation from the Ta'asha of Um-Dafok designated by the Sudanese Government (GOS) . . . we. . . accept the peace pact [of July 15, 2009].'' ¶4. (SBU) Post has previously reported that Ta'asha (ethnic cousins of the Kara) took part in the June 21, 2009 fighting, but there was no evidence until mid-July that the GOS was formally recognizing their role and acting on their behalf. It should be noted that the GOS may be seeking simply to protect its citizen's economic interest in the Vakaga. However, when we asked Special Representative to the Secretary General for Chad and CAR (SRSG) Victor Angelo (protect) about this clause, he affirmed that there was increasing evidence of involvement by the GOS in the Vakaga. He put forth that the GOS is worried about the ungoverned space in the CAR as it could provide a haven from which anti-regime elements might base themselves in preparation for potential conflict in 2011. By supporting a proxy militia like the Kara (UMDR - Union of the Democratic Movement for Unity),the GOS may be hoping to limit their exposure to a threat from their Southeast. President Bashir knows all too well that the chaotic Chad-CAR has caused headaches for President Deby. ¶5. (SBU) COMMENT: The governments of Sudan and Uganda have discerned correctly that the CARG cannot secure its eastern expanses. Facing a multitude of problems closer to Bangui, Bozize often finds the Vakaga and other prefectures simply too distant to prioritize. Therefore, the sparsely populated eastern portion of the country poses a risk to the government in Khartoum and Kampala. As of now, no elements of the Southern Sudanese Army (SPLA) have joined the Ugandans in the CAR but if they do, it would certainly raise a red flag. END COMMENT. COOK