REBELS OF OPPORTUNITY: DDR UNLIKELY TO SOLVE THE ILLS OF THE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGUI 000124

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/C
PARIS FOR RKANEDA
LONDON FOR PLORD
AFRICOM FOR JKUGEL,CKOCH

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM PINR CT
SUBJECT: REBELS OF OPPORTUNITY: DDR UNLIKELY TO SOLVE THE ILLS OF THE
CAR

REF: A. 09 BANGUI 12, 21, 46, 47, 50, 114

B. 09 NDJAMENA 173


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: On June 22, 2009, the Central African
Republic's (CAR) newest rebel leader gave an interview to a
local newspaper, declaring his intention to adhere to the
Demobilization (DDR) process. The former spokesman of Abakar
Sabone's Movement of Central African Liberators for Justice
(MLCJ),Hassan Ousman, formed a splinter group in late May and
is seeking to be recognized by the DDR's verification mechanism.
While on the surface this appears good for the CAR, sadly, a
second look exposes the downside of the DDR process: that rebel
lists are being inflated, and rebel chiefs created, so that
donor money can be obtained by a bloated list of recipients.
(This is a repeat of the last Central African DDR which saw an
original list of under 1,300 ``rebels'' swell to over 7,000.)
Though most of the rebel groups, with the notable exception of
the Convention for Justice and Peace (CPJP),signed the
Inclusive Political Dialogue (IPD) of December 2008, the first
half of 2009 has seen the rebel movements restart their
posturing and violence. This exposes the majority of rebel
groups for what they truly are: poorly equipped inhabitants of
underdeveloped regions looking for a pay day, and underscores an
essential element of AmEmbassy Bangui's reporting - that the DDR
process is largely irrelevant to solving the CAR's political
crisis. END SUMMARY.

2. (SBU) Ousman founded the National Movement in Salut of the
Homeland (MNSP) so that dissidents of the MLCJ who wish to join
the DDR movement may do so. The trouble is, the MLCJ and Sabone,
since early June, have reentered the peace process thus
abrogating the MNSP's raison d'jtre. Yet Ousman continues on and
promises that if his movement is recognized by the DDR process,
he would willing to prove the existence of his forces to the
verification mechanism. Meaning, once he gets the assurance that
his rebels will be paid to disarm, he will provide evidence that
there are rebels. While the MNSP has yet to be recognized by the
DDR committee, it seems certain that if it is, it would produce
further fraud and waste of the international community's money.
The DDR program is set to disarm 9,000 people, yet experts
estimate that there have never been more than 4,000 rebels total
in country. While this disconnect has been described as
acceptable by international observers of the project, the Ousman
case proves two disturbing points:
- The DDR process is being seen by the local population as a pay
day. POLOFF received reports in Bozoum that disarmament efforts
by the UNDP, which give cash for guns at a price above market
value, is pushing those who turn in their guns to use the
profits to purchase more (and better) weapons.
- The DDR process, as it is currently structured, is creating a
dangerous precedent that those who take up arms, no matter how
lacking in political or military credibility, will eventually be
paid to disarm. (Note: we see similar patience in the in the
timber industry. People flock to a sawmill for jobs and when the
mill closes, people will remain on site for years, hoping that
it will reopen - As there is so little economic opportunity;
there is no reason to go anywhere else.) The greater danger of
the DDR process is that it focuses attention on ``rebels'' while
ignoring the over 120,000 internally displaced persons who have
no jobs, prospect of payment and very little assistance of any
type.

3. (SBU) Low scale scamming of the process by pseudo rebels is
unfortunate and exposes the true nature of most of these
movements. Stuck in a cycle of poverty due to under development,
minimal infrastructure and a lack of governance, many in the
region see rebellion, and the disarmament that follows, as a
bread winner rather than an ideology. Therefore, the solutions
put forward by the IDP did not need to include real political
change to be viewed as a ``success''. All it needed to do was
promise cash. Thus the root causes remain and the solution
offered by the IPD and DDR are fleeting. This is why the Rounga
rebellion of the northeast remains the flashpoint in the CAR (09
BANGUI 12, 21, 46, 47, 50, 114; 09 NDJAMENA 173),as its
grievances could not be simply bought off. And while DDR is
indeed necessary, it is only a longer term and integrated
development strategy that can snuff out the embers that spark
rebellion in the CAR. As previously reported, Post still
believes that the CARG is a long way from coming to this
conclusion and do not have the will to properly solve the crisis

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facing this country.
COOK