THAI GOVERNMENT OPPONENTS RALLY AT GOVERNMENT

C O N F I D E N T I A L BANGKOK 000755 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/26/2019 TAGS: PGOV KDEM PHUM ASEC TH SUBJECT: THAI GOVERNMENT OPPONENTS RALLY AT GOVERNMENT HOUSE IN BANGKOK REF: BANGKOK 718 (WINS NO-CONFIDENCE VOTE) Classified By: DCM James F. Entwistle, reason: 1.4 (b) and (d). SUMMARY AND COMMENT -------------- ¶1. (C) Over 20,000 anti-government "redshirt" protestors rallied at the Government House compound in Bangkok on March 26 with the intention of remaining at least several days. Thousands of police officers and soldiers were on hand to ensure the demonstration remained peaceful, as the organizers had promised. With the Abhisit administration having recently survived a no-confidence vote in parliament, and retaining popular according to a national survey (reftel),we do not believe the redshirt movement can find the same sustained level of support in Bangkok that the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) attracted during its 2008 anti-government campaign. While the crowd size is respectable, it is hardly overwhelming or unprecedented by 2005-08 standards. The current redshirt efforts may be primarily designed to ensure that the movement's leaders continue to receive public attention and funding from former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra. End Summary and Comment. DEMONSTRATION - THIS TIME RED -------------- ¶2. (SBU) In accordance with announced plans, thousands of anti-government "redshirt" protestors gathered at the Royal Grounds in Bangkok on the morning of March 26. At mid-day, they proceeded to the Government House compound; police there estimated that the crowd at approximately 25,000, and they believed more would arrive later in the evening. At one point, demonstrators used truck-mounted cranes to remove containers blocking the route to Government House. ¶3. (SBU) The redshirt leaders had previously announced their intent to surround Government House. Their principal purpose, they have said publicly, is to bring about the downfall of the Abhisit administration, which they claim is illegitimate, based on their view that Abhisit was only able to win election as Prime Minister because of illegitimate actions by the Army, the Constitutional Court, and the PAD protest movement. ¶4. (SBU) The government deployed 31 companies of police officers (approximately 4,650 people) to handle the demonstration, according to our government sources. The Army also deployed 21 companies, approximately 3,000 soldiers, some of whom were positioned inside the Government House compound. Some government officials remained at work at Government House, although Abhisit and other top officials held their meetings at the parliament or elsewhere. ¶5. (SBU) The protestors appeared divided into two types, according to our Thai staff, who observed the rally: most of those from northern and northeastern Thailand, who had arrived on chartered buses, were unable to explain political positions beyond simple sloganeering ("Abhisit should go"); numerous protestors from Bangkok and nearby provinces claimed to have expended their own means to travel and who appeared sincere in their criticism of the Abhisit administration. Some protestors claimed that provincial and lower-level authorities had impeded the travel to Bangkok of people who sought to join the protest. ¶6. (SBU) Police officers at Government House admonished protestors to remain peaceful and not to enter the compound. We have no reports of police physically confronting the protestors or of protestors attacking police. By the late afternoon, the police presence was lessening. ¶7. (SBU) Note: Many political observers believe the protest will end before Sunday, March 29, in order not to disrupt a nearby Red Cross fair beginning that day. The Red Cross event has sponsorship from the royal family. JOHN