THAI ADMINISTRATION WINS NO-CONFIDENCE VOTE WITH

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 000718 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/23/2019 TAGS: PGOV KDEM TH SUBJECT: THAI ADMINISTRATION WINS NO-CONFIDENCE VOTE WITH EASE REF: A. BANGKOK 700 (NO-CONFIDENCE DEBATE) ¶B. BANGKOK 635 (IMPEACHMENT COMPLAINT) BANGKOK 00000718 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: POL Counselor George Kent, reason: 1.4 (b) and (d). SUMMARY AND COMMENT -------------- ¶1. (C) A majority of the members of the House of Representatives supported Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva and his cabinet ministers in a March 21 vote on a no-confidence motion. The vote tally showed a slight increase in support for Abhisit since his December 15 election as Prime Minister. The Puea Thai party will continue its political attacks on Abhisit, and anti-government "redshirt" protestors will continue street demonstrations, but there is no sign that public or parliamentary support for Abhisit is weakening. Chalerm Yoobamrung, who was Puea Thai's nominee to ascend to the premiership were the House to have voted Abhisit out of office, may soon formalize his leadership of Puea Thai. End Summary and Comment. THE VOTE -------------- ¶2. (U) Following two days of debate over the performance of Prime Minister Abhisit and his cabinet members, members of the House of Representatives on March 21 provided Abhisit with majority support, as expected. The vote tallies were: FOR AGAINST ABSTAIN OR NO VOTE --- -------------- -------------- PM Abhisit 246 176 27 FM Kasit 237 184 25 FinMin Korn 246 174 27 IntMin Chavarat 246 167 34 Dep IntMin Boonjong 246 168 33 Dep FinMin Pradit 246 174 27 WHAT IT MEANS -------------- ¶3. (C) Notably, opposition Puea Thai failed to ensure that all 182 of its MPs voted in accordance with its party line. The figures above show a slight increase in support for Abhisit since his December 15 election as Prime Minister, when he received 235 votes in his favor, 198 against. In addition to a handful of seats won by coalition parties in January by-elections, the widening gap is due primarily to the unwillingness of members of smaller parties (e.g., Pracharaj and the Motherland Party) to side with Puea Thai 
against the governing coalition. The lower number of votes against Phumjai Thai party members Chavarat and Boonjong likely indicate the desire of some Puea Thai (PT) members to build ties to Phumjai Thai, with an eye toward possibly repositioning themselves in the event of a new House election. The slightly lower support for FM Kasit Piromya stems from his controversial association with the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD),and specifically from his support for the PAD's occupation of the Bangkok airports during its late 2008 campaign to oust the pro-Thaksin government. Kasit is close to Deputy Prime Minister Suthep Thaugsuban, however, who has sufficient influence to shield Kasit from pressure to vacate office. ¶4. (SBU) According to a March 21 survey by ABAC, a reputable polling outfit associated with Assumption University, 83.5 percent of over 2,000 respondents in 18 provinces believed Abhisit performed satisfactorally in the no-confidence debate and should not have been forced out of office. When asked to express a preference between Abhisit and former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, 50.6 percent preferred Abhisit, with 23.6 percent voicing support for Thaksin (and the rest expressing no preference). WHAT NEXT FOR PUEA THAI? -------------- ¶5. (C) The House vote does not affect Puea Thai's impeachment BANGKOK 00000718 002.2 OF 002 complaint against Abhisit (ref B),which remains pending with the National Counter Corruption Commission (NCCC). The NCCC is highly unlikely to find merit in PT's charges. The failure of opposition MPs to oust Abhisit through parliamentary means may shift attention to street protests by the anti-government "redshirt" movement, but recent redshirt demonstrations have been sporadic and unimpressive. Having failed to influence public discourse meaningfully during the high-profile ASEAN Summit, which took place in Thailand several weeks ago, the redshirt leaders may find it difficult to draw large crowds to upcoming rallies, the next of which is planned for March 26. Thaksin, still abroad, continues to speak via phone with gatherings of his supporters, but his influence outside his hard-core supporters appears to be diminishing. ¶6. (C) The no-confidence debate may prove to have been most important in serving as an action-forcing event that boosted the standing of MP Chalerm Yoobamrung within Puea Thai. With so many allies of Thaksin currently ineligible to hold political office, Puea Thai has languished under the weak leadership of Yongyuth Wichaidit, until recently an irrelevant figure in national politics. The Constitutional requirement that a no-confidence motion specify the opposition's nominee to become Prime Minister provided a boost to Chalerm, who received that designation. There is widespread speculation that Chalerm will formally ascend to the position of Party Leader after a March 24 PT gathering, with Yingluck Shinawatra (sister of Thaksin) likely to become the PT Secretary General. JOHN