Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09BANGKOK457
2009-02-23 09:46:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Bangkok
Cable title:
THAILAND'S GDP FALLS 4.3 PERCENT IN THE FOURTH QUARTER, THE
how-toVZCZCXRO9591 PP RUEHCHI RUEHDT RUEHHM RUEHNH DE RUEHBK #0457 0540946 ZNR UUUUU ZZH P 230946Z FEB 09 FM AMEMBASSY BANGKOK TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 6132 RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY INFO RUEHCHI/AMCONSUL CHIANG MAI PRIORITY 6194 RUCNASE/ASEAN MEMBER COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
UNCLAS BANGKOK 000457
STATE FOR EAP/MLS AND EB
STATE PASS TO USTR
TREASURY FOR OASIA
SINGAPORE FOR FINATT BAKER
SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: EFIN ECON EINV ETRD TH
SUBJECT: THAILAND'S GDP FALLS 4.3 PERCENT IN THE FOURTH QUARTER, THE
FIRST DROP IN A DECADE
Sensitive But Unclassified. For Official Use Only.
UNCLAS BANGKOK 000457
STATE FOR EAP/MLS AND EB
STATE PASS TO USTR
TREASURY FOR OASIA
SINGAPORE FOR FINATT BAKER
SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: EFIN ECON EINV ETRD TH
SUBJECT: THAILAND'S GDP FALLS 4.3 PERCENT IN THE FOURTH QUARTER, THE
FIRST DROP IN A DECADE
Sensitive But Unclassified. For Official Use Only.
1. (U) Thailand's National Economic and Social Development Board
(NESDB) issued a press release February 23 providing Thailand's
official GDP statistics for the fourth quarter of 2008: negative 4.3
percent compared with the fourth quarter of 2007. This dismal
performance dragged the overall growth for 2008 down to 2.6 percent,
about half of 2007. This is the first time since 1997-98 that there
has been negative growth during a quarter. The performance was
worse than earlier predicted and has caused the NESDB to project
that for all of 2009 Thailand's GDP is likely to be negative
(negative 1.0 to 0.0 percent).
2. (U) Despite Thailand's poor GDP performance, NESDB's release did
contain some good economic news. Inflation dropped to 2.1 percent
and the Current Account is still showing a small surplus as imports
are falling even faster than exports. The official unemployment
rate is projected to rise to 3.5 percent during the year.
3. (SBU) Comment: The Ministry of Finance has not re-adjusted its
2009 forecast of 0.0 to 2.0 percent growth, a projection made before
the most recent data on the drop in exports was released. The
government, which has been busy promoting its economic stimulus
program, may be hesitant to admit that its efforts will be unable to
spur GDP growth, but more data like this may force its hand.
STATE FOR EAP/MLS AND EB
STATE PASS TO USTR
TREASURY FOR OASIA
SINGAPORE FOR FINATT BAKER
SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: EFIN ECON EINV ETRD TH
SUBJECT: THAILAND'S GDP FALLS 4.3 PERCENT IN THE FOURTH QUARTER, THE
FIRST DROP IN A DECADE
Sensitive But Unclassified. For Official Use Only.
1. (U) Thailand's National Economic and Social Development Board
(NESDB) issued a press release February 23 providing Thailand's
official GDP statistics for the fourth quarter of 2008: negative 4.3
percent compared with the fourth quarter of 2007. This dismal
performance dragged the overall growth for 2008 down to 2.6 percent,
about half of 2007. This is the first time since 1997-98 that there
has been negative growth during a quarter. The performance was
worse than earlier predicted and has caused the NESDB to project
that for all of 2009 Thailand's GDP is likely to be negative
(negative 1.0 to 0.0 percent).
2. (U) Despite Thailand's poor GDP performance, NESDB's release did
contain some good economic news. Inflation dropped to 2.1 percent
and the Current Account is still showing a small surplus as imports
are falling even faster than exports. The official unemployment
rate is projected to rise to 3.5 percent during the year.
3. (SBU) Comment: The Ministry of Finance has not re-adjusted its
2009 forecast of 0.0 to 2.0 percent growth, a projection made before
the most recent data on the drop in exports was released. The
government, which has been busy promoting its economic stimulus
program, may be hesitant to admit that its efforts will be unable to
spur GDP growth, but more data like this may force its hand.