THAILAND CLIMATE CHANGE EFFORTS FOCUS ON ADAPTATION

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 BANGKOK 000418

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR OES
COMMERCE FOR NOAA
USDA FOR FAS
STATE PASS TO EPA

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: SENV EAGR ECON ETRD TH
SUBJECT: THAILAND CLIMATE CHANGE EFFORTS FOCUS ON ADAPTATION

REF: A) 08 Phnom Penh 1003; (B) 08 Rangoon 818


1. (U) SUMMARY: Although not a major emitter of greenhouse gases,
Thailand has a strong policy on both mitigating and adapting to
climate change. The Royal Thai Government (RTG) and donor experts
foresee possible severe effects from increased flooding, drought and
rising sea levels which could threaten Bangkok and jeopardize
Thailand's role as a leading rice exporter. With its clean energy
and adaptation initiatives, Thailand sees itself as a model for
developing nations and is already a donor country. Thailand is a
major partner with U.S. EPA for the Methane to Markets (M2M)
program, and USAID works with Thailand on climate change activities
as part of its regional ECO-Asia Clean Development and Climate
Program. Thai academics and officials are keen for more cooperation
with the U.S. on climate change research, and Post is exploring
several opportunities to expand partnership with Thailand. END
SUMMARY.

THAILAND'S CLIMATE CHANGE ISSUES
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2. Thailand's climate change initiatives focus more on adaptation
than mitigation. The RTG, donors, and experts view Thailand, along
with the rest of Southeast Asia, as among the most vulnerable to
likely climate change (CC) effects. Bangkok is at risk from rising
sea levels, and increasing salinization of rivers is expected to
affect fisheries. Coastal changes would bring erosion and
destruction of coral reefs and mangrove forests. A large part of
Thailand is in the greater Mekong River basin, for which climate
change is projected to harm crops and fisheries. Himalayan glacial
melting will probably have less direct impact on Thailand than South
Asia, as the Mekong Basin is largely fed by rain. At a recent
conference by the Mekong River Commission on adaptation to CC,
scientists appeared to agree on a likely scenario of increased
flooding during the rainy season coupled with increased drought
during the dry season; also expected is a large population
displacement from coastal and riverine areas (including Bangkok) due
to rising sea levels.


3. Thailand is not one of the major global emitters of greenhouse
gases (GHGs) from fuel use, ranking third among developing countries
in East Asia after China and Indonesia. Following years of
significant deforestation, Thailand banned logging in 1989 and
absorption of GHG emissions has increased. Major methane emitters
are rice paddies and livestock operations. A national solar
radiation map has been completed which identified great potential
for Thailand, but so far solar power production has been limited.
Many rural Thai still use primitive cookstoves, with the resulting
soot a major contributor to GHG emissions as well to mortality
(primarily women and children) from respiratory disease. Around 15
percent of Thailand's power is from coal. Major renewable energy
producers are biomass and hydropower. Domestic use and production
of biodiesel is still constrained by limited supplies and the lack
of clearly defined incentives for biodiesel investment.


THAILAND AND INTERNATIONAL FORA
--------------

4. Thailand ratified the United Nations Framework Convention on
Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 1994 and the Kyoto Protocol in 2002. RTG
websites assert the RTG's awareness of and support for its part to
reduce GHG emissions. As part of the run-up to the United Nations
Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen in December, Thailand will
host the last major round of negotiations in Bangkok 9/28-10/9 (Post
anticipates a USG delegation of 25-40). The Ministry of Natural
Resources and Environment (MoNRE) is the designated national
authority for UNFCCC for Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) projects
under the UNFCCC, but projects must be approved by the cabinet.

NATIONAL POLICY ON CLIMATE CHANGE
--------------

5. The RTG Cabinet established the National Board on Climate Change
Policy in 2006 and gave the policy lead to MoNRE. A National Climate
Action Plan has been incorporated into Thailand's current five year
national Economic and Social Development plan, setting a target of
5% reduction from 2003 GHG emission levels by 2012. The UNFCCC CDM
is Thailand's key financing mechanism for climate change projects;
of the last 15 worldwide CDM projects that have been approved and
registered by the UNFCCC for approval, two have been from Thailand
and both involved biogas production. Under RTG policy, CDM projects
should contribute to the National Sustainable Development Plan,
effect technology transfer and capacity building, and give priority

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of benefits to local communities.


6. Aree Wattana Tummakird, MoNRE point person for climate change,
explained Thai climate change policy to ESTH and other donors on Feb

12. Strategy pillars are reducing vulnerability, GHG mitigation,
research support, international cooperation and raising public
awareness. Key sub-pillars include developing early warning systems
for water and agriculture issues, databases to identify hot spots,
and centers of excellence. Sector focuses are water,
transportation, energy and agriculture/fisheries. Without minimizing
the RTG's commitment to mitigation as part of its global
responsibility, Tummakird noted that Thailand's water resources
vulnerability makes adaption to climate change the more urgent
priority. Thai officials at the February 12 Mekong conference also
stated that water management to adapt to CC will be the major focus
for Thai CC policy.


7. Thailand's energy policy will affect its GHG emissions, with
ambitious plans to displace transport fuel with renewable energy
sources within the next five years and reduce per capita energy
consumption. In 2008 the RTG announced various energy conservation
measures including household appliance loans, industry retrofit
loans and new building standards. Thailand has implemented various
policies to accelerate the development of new energy resources,
promote energy efficiency, and develop renewable energy. Policy
incentives for ethanol include soft loans, "build-own-operate"
privileges for fuel ethanol plants, and an excise tax holiday for
ethanol blended in gasohol. The RTG's Very Small Power Producer
(VSPP) program gives tariff incentives to small producers of
biofuel, solar and hydro power. Thailand also intends to develop
nuclear power by 2020, with a feasibility study underway.

THAILAND AS RESEARCHER AND FINANCIER
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8. The ASEAN University Network (a coalition of 22 universities
based in Bangkok),Asian Institute of Technology (AIT) and the Joint
Graduate School of Energy and Environment (JGSEE) (a coalition of
four Thai universities) are among the institutions that have
well-respected clean energy and CC programs. In meetings with each
of these, ESTHoff found administrators keen for more cooperation
with the USG and U.S. universities. Many donor countries such as
Japan and the EU have already established cooperation programs.
Neighbors such as Cambodia have expressed an interest in learning
about the VSPP and other programs to encourage rural sustainable
livelihoods while mitigating climate change effects. The RTG,
private sector and Thai academia are active in biofuels research and
development. Thai banks and firms have been financing hydropower
development in Cambodia (Ref A),Burma (Ref B) and Laos (although
the economic downturn has caused re-evaluation of most); these clean
energy investments remain controversial because of perceived
inadequate environmental assessments to determine the impact of
fisheries disruption on food security. Thai and Chinese investors,
per some experts, have with their less stringent environmental
assessments diminished the influence of the ADB and other MDBs. The
RTG National Innovation Agency lists a number of CC-related business
innovations, especially in bio plastics. The national Thai Research
Fund has supported climate change projects, for example to study
methane emissions from rice paddies and develop biofuels such as
jatropha.

THAILAND AS DONOR
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9. Since 2003, RTG policy considers Thailand as an "emerging donor"
that can serve as a model for developing nations and a bridge to the
developed nations. With its fairly sophisticated research and
development combined with aspects of a developing nation, the Thai
consider themselves well suited to advise ASEAN neighbors and others
in the developing world on appropriate technologies. Thailand has
been active in partnerships for Technical Cooperation among
Developing Countries. Thailand has sent experts to provide
technical assistance, provided academic fellowships, and donated
technical equipment as far as Africa. Thailand has sponsored various
private sector organizations that look at climate change, such as
the Mekong Institute (MI) and International Institute for Trade and
Development (ITD). The Centre for Energy Environment Resources
Development (CEERD) is part of the Foundation for International
Human Resource Development (FIHRD),a Thai Foundation promoting
technical and economic cooperation to strengthen national government
capacity in Asia and the Pacific in energy-environment planning and
policy formulation.


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USG Support
--------------

10. USEPA works with Thailand as a focus country for the Methane to
Markets (M2M) program; with large crop and livestock operations, M2M
converts methane from livestock dung to electricity using
specialized small generators; the effect is both reduction of
methane (a GHG) to the atmosphere and clean energy. USEPA has also
funded development of the Thai National Strategy on Global Climate
Change and the RTG National Action Plan. The USAID Regional
Development Mission for Asia (RDMA) supports CC and energy-related
activities in Thailand as part of its regional ECO-Asia Clean
Development and Climate Program (CDCP). RDMA engages Thailand in
regional efforts related to harmonizing compact fluorescent lamp
(CFL) standards, promoting cleaner coal technology adoption,
promoting clean energy financing, and preparing a regional study on
options for sustainable biofuels (to be published in early April).
The ECO-Asia CDCP's leading Thai partner is JGSEE. The DRAGON
network for river delta science collaboration, in which USGS
scientists are applying lessons learned from Hurricane Katrina and
Mississippi Delta research, is focusing on the Mekong river after a
launch of the DRAGON Mekong collaboration in November. A June
global summit will be in Cambodia. DRAGON collaboration is planned
to help Bangkok's Chao Phraya river delta.

DONOR VIEWS AND SUPPORT
--------------

11. The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has a number of current
programs and funded a least-costs GHG strategy. The UN
Environmental Programme (UNEP) is preparing an assessment report on
climate change and Thailand, while the World Bank, ADB and JABIC are
funding another study on mega-city effects. The ADB hosted a
meeting February 12 to discuss gaps in its climate change program.
In ESTHoff discussion with WB, ADB, NGOs and other national donor
agencies, the view was that Thailand was taking climate change
seriously but that donor assistance could be well spent in
furthering Thailand's efforts, both domestically and as a donor.
The ABD is strongly committed to mitigation, with projects to
deliver technical assistance and develop policy incentives for clean
energy, mini-hydropower and sustainable biofuels. ADB programs
focus on developing public-private partnerships for hydropower
export, developing small farm participation in biofuels with pilot
projects, technical assistance in developing CDM projects and policy
incentives for electric vehicles. Nevertheless, ADB and other donor
representatives noted that adaptation has been relatively neglected
and needs to become an urgent priority.


12. One area for particular concern is rice production. Thailand
is the world's largest exporter of rice. Nevertheless, many experts
cautioned in the Mekong and ADB workshops that Thai production is
inefficient, with high greenhouse gas emissions and is unprepared
for climate changes. Increased flooding would damage agricultural
structures while increased temperatures, and longer droughts will
probably harm output. Thailand's resistance to genetically modified
strains of rice as a matter of policy complicates one adaptation
mechanism.

UPCOMNG EVENTS
--------------

13. The NGO Global Change SysTem for Analysis, Research, and
Training (START) Regional Center at Chulalongkorn University will
host a workshop, "Cities at Risk," February 26-28 to discuss to
climate change adaptation for Asia's coastal megacities. Bangkok
will be a focus city. The World Alternative Energy Science Expo
will be held in Bangkok March 5-7. The Embassy will participate
with a booth to showcase Methane to Markets, ECO-Asia, and other
programs. EEB in cooperation with USTDA and Commerce is organizing
a U.S.-ASEAN Clean Energy Conference for the fall, planned for
Bangkok. ECON, FCS and TDA support this conference. The June USGS
DRAGON summit in Cambodia will focus on climate change adaptation
for large river systems. OES/STC is helping to organize a workshop
at the AIT in November for U.S. and ASEAN researchers to create
design teams for the next generation of high-efficiency,
clean-burning biomass cooking stoves. The belief is that with the
short atmospheric lifetime of soot, this investment should pay off
more quickly than CO2 reduction.


14. POINTS OF CONTACT: State - ESTH officer Howell Howard,
howardhh@state.gov; USAID - Orestes Anastasia for
USAID,oanastasia@usaid.gov. The RTG's Climate Change website is
http://www.ortep.go.th/cdm.


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COMMENT AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR USG COLLABORATION
-------------- --

15. Post has a clean energy/climate change goal in its MSP to focus
USG cooperation with Thailand. USG assistance has helped to improve
Thailand's ability to monitor and report emissions; future
assistance should target adaptation as well. Thai officials we
have met with are quite positive on our new administration and its
anticipated engagement with Thailand and the rest of world on
climate change. The Thai and other donors see USG expertise in
dealing with water management aspects of natural disasters, for
example Hurricane Katrina, as having good potential for
collaboration. USAID plans to complete by early April a biofuels
assessment for the region which will help to identify areas for
collaboration. USG science cooperation could help Thailand develop
its perceived gaps in water management for coastal cities in
agriculture, data bases for decision-making, and centers of
excellence for climate change research. After almost 20 years of
banned logging, USG forestry assistance could help Thailand catch up
to modern forest management in order to reach its stated goal of 15
percent of planned 40 percent national forest cover to be in
commercial forests. USG collaboration with Thailand would leverage
the RTG's strong interest in developing its capacity to be a climate
change/clean energy donor. The ASEAN University Network presents a
particularly good Thailand-based avenue to reach a large number of
climate change researchers.