THAILAND: RED-SHIRTS SET THEIR SIGHTS ON DECEMBER

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 003067 SIPDIS STATE FOR EAP/MLS, NSC FOR WALTON E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/03/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM TH SUBJECT: THAILAND: RED-SHIRTS SET THEIR SIGHTS ON DECEMBER 10 FOR A DAY, PROMISE MORE IN JANUARY REF: A. BANGKOK 3009 (THAKSIN PULLS PLUG ON RALLY) ¶B. BANGKOK 3003 (AMBASSADOR ENGAGES THAKSIN,S SISTER) BANGKOK 00003067 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: DCM James F. Entwistle, reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). SUMMARY AND COMMENT -------------- ¶1. (C) Just one-week after abruptly cancelling their promised November 28-December 1 "showdown" rally out of alleged deference to the King's birthday celebration (REF A),the anti-government United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD),aka the "red-shirts," announced that they would hold their next major rally on December 10 (Constitution Day in Thailand). The rally will take place at the Democracy Monument in downtown Bangkok and is slated to last for 12 hours -- from noon to midnight. Core red-shirt leader Dr. Jaran Ditapichai told us the December 10 rally date had been in the works for some time, and public pronouncements to the contrary amounted to head fakes designed primarily to convince the RTG to call off the Internal Security Act (ISA). After the Cabinet lifted the ISA on December 1, Deputy Prime Minister Suthep told the media December 3 that the RTG would not reverse itself again and invoke the ISA to deal with the December 10 demonstration, but rather would rely on the police and tightened security measures to maintain the peace. ¶2. (C) In a less encouraging development, MGEN Khattiya (aka "Seh Daeng") -- who has a documented history of advocating the use of violence (and delivering) and recently re-surfaced as one of the public faces for the red-shirts -- told the media that a group of 1000 rangers might attend the December 10 rally to help "protect" the red-shirts, thereby raising the specter of skirmishes between armed red-shirts and the police. In keeping with our recent outreach efforts with Thaksin's family and red shirt leaders (reftels),we urged Dr. Jaran and Thaksin's Bangkok-based lawyer to have red-shirts and Thaksin disavow the use of violence, as well as distance themselves from Khattiya, his extreme rhetoric, and his troubling history of support for violence. Dr. Jaran told us that while the red-shirts remained committed to peaceful protests, no one was able to "control" Seh Daeng. Thaksin's lawyer Manida "Mickey" Zinmerman pledged to relay the message to Thaksin personally. ¶3. (C) Comment: Seh Daeng's re-emergence as a public cheerleader for a more vigorous red line is a potentially ominous development in the ongoing battle between Thaksin's supporters and the government; lawyer "Mickey" called Khattiya a "warlord" who might be put in play in the possible chaos of a messy transition scenario. Seh Daeng visited Thaksin in both Cambodia and Dubai in recent weeks and was photographed participating in Thaksin's meetings with Hun Sen in Siem Reap and red strategy sessions with UDD leaders in Dubai. His return to the red limelight after laying low for seven months would not have happened without Thaksin's blessing. Given Khattiya's troubling track record of accurately predicting acts of violence and implicitly taking credit with a wink and a nod, we are concerned that the next round of extended protests, most likely in January, could get ugly. That said, there seems to be a general consensus unfolding that the December 10 protests will be short and peaceful, a belief that is buttressed by the fact that the RTG has decided not to invoke the ISA. End Summary and Comment. REDS CHANGE COURSE, CALL RALLY FOR DEC 10 -------------- ¶4. (C) In the latest red-shirt reversal, core red-shirt leader Vira Misikapong told the media December 2 that the red-shirts would hold a demonstration in December after all, a decision that ran contrary to the November 25 announcement that the red-shirts would not hold any demonstrations until BANGKOK 00003067 002.2 OF 002 next year. Vira told the media he expected the December 10 rally to be short, peaceful, and relatively modest in size relative to previous red-shirt undertakings in the capital. ¶5. (C) Fellow red-shirt leader Jaran told us December 4 that the December 10 rally date had been in the pipeline for quite some time, and that the recent decision to cancel the November 28 - December 2 rally had not altered the plan all along to mark December 10 -- Constitution Day in Thailand (Note: celebrating the 1932 Constitution marking the end of the absolute monarchy. End note). According to Jaran, the red-shirts made strategic use of misinformation to convince the RTG there would be no protests in December, a tactic they hoped would influence the RTG to cancel plans to invoke the ISA. ¶6. (C) Dr. Jaran told us that between 500 and 600 red-shirt heavyweights from around the country would descend upon Bangkok on December 9 for a red-shirt strategy session. The UDD would invite various constitutional experts to speak at the December 10 rally, which he maintained would unfold between noon and midnight. He expected somewhere between 20,000 and 30,000 people to attend the rally, and was not sure whether Thaksin would address the crowd or not, noting Thaksin's current international tour, having just visited Moscow December 2-3, with plans to continue to Jordan, Papua New Guinea, and Sri Lanka. RTG DECIDES NOT TO HIT THE PANIC BUTTON, YET -------------- ¶7. (C) Deputy Prime Minister Suthep Interior Minister greeted the new red-shirt plan by expressing his hope to the media that the rally would be peaceful, and by announcing that the RTG would not -- for the first time since the April red-shirt riots in Bangkok and Pattaya -- use the ISA to ensure order around a major red rally. For his part, Interior Minister Chavarat Chanveerakul told reporters December 3 that the RTG expected "tens of thousands" of Bangkok-based red-shirts to turn out for the rally. Unlike with previous red-shirt rallies, Chavarat did not expect red supporters to travel to Bangkok en masse. AIMING FOR JANUARY -------------- ¶8. (C) Jaran revealed that the reds planned to ring in the New Year en masse in Thaksin's hometown of Chiang Mai, with soccer matches, road rallies, and concerts. Both Jaran and lawyer "Mickey" suggested to us the bigger, more extended rally in Bangkok would occur in January, with the goal to bring down the Abhisit government, forcing House dissolution and new elections. JOHN