THAILAND: ABHISIT CANCELS CHIANG MAI TRIP IN THE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 003015 SENSITIVE SIPDIS STATE FOR EAP/MLS, NSC FOR WALTON E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/27/2019 TAGS: PREL PGOV TH SUBJECT: THAILAND: ABHISIT CANCELS CHIANG MAI TRIP IN THE FACE OF THREATS, RED PROTESTS DEFERRED FOR NOW REF: A. CHIANG MAI 178 (PM'S PLANNED NOV. 29) ¶B. BANGKOK 3009 (THAKSIN PULLS THE PLUG) ¶C. BANGKOK 2455 (NIPHON) BANGKOK 00003015 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: DCM JAMES F. ENTWISTLE, REASON 1.4 (B) AND (D) ¶1. (C) Summary: Bowing to concerns about his security in the wake of local red-shirt threats to "cremate" him (ref A), Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva on November 26 announced that he would not travel to the northern city of Chiang Mai as previously planned for a November 29 meeting with business executives. The Chamber of Commerce provided a semi-face saving gesture by rescinding its invitation to Abhisit in recognition of fears his visit could lead to violent protests at the start of the tourist high season, though the government earlier suggested it was prepared to invoke the Internal Security Act (ISA) in Chiang Mai and deploy thousands of security forces to ensure the Prime Minister's safety. While associates of fugitive former PM Thaksin immediately put out public feelers for the possibility of a deal in the wake of the stand-downs in both Bangkok and Chiang Mai, DPM Suthep told Ambassador November 27 that no such talks with the government were underway, and that the respite from protests would likely be short, with Thaksin aiming to keep the pressure up to secure a pardon for his conviction and avoid jail time (septel will detail the Suthep meeting in full). ¶2. (C) Comment: Abhisit's decision, combined with the UDD's cancellation of rallies in Bangkok for this weekend (REF B), palpably reduced tensions in the immediate short-term. However, additional rallies and the potential for renewed red violence remain mid-term concerns. Leaders for the United Front for Democracy Against Dictatorship (UDD) said publicly they intend to meet in mid-December to plot the way forward. In a worrisome harbinger, violent red provocateur MGEN Khattiya, aka Seh Daeng, was photographed in Dubai this weekend meeting with Thaksin and "peaceful" UDD leaders like Vira Musikapong. A high-ranking NIA official attending an embassy Thanksgiving dinner also suggested to us that another large-scale red protest was inevitable, because Thaksin had already paid millions for it: an alleged 1.5 million baht to each Puea Thai MP to deliver 1500 protesters each, and 500,000 baht to each would-be candidate for 500 protesters. End Summary and Comment. PM CANCELS CHIANG MAI TRIP AFTER INVITATION WITHDRAWN -------------- -------------- ¶3. (U) Prime Minister Abhisit canceled plans to attend the annual Thai Chambers of Commerce (TCC) meeting in Chiang Mai, scheduled for Sunday, November 29. Abhisit said he scrapped his planned trip after the TCC withdrew its invitation for him to attend the three-day convention. TCC chairman Dusit Nontanakorn told reporters that the council decided to rescind the Prime Minister's invitation after consultation with key members, who said they did not want to endanger Abhisit or other meeting participants. ¶4. (SBU) Abhisit's subsequent announcement that he would not attend the TCC meeting helped lower tension in Chiang Mai, a red-shirt stronghold and Thaksin's hometown, according to contacts of Consulate General Chiang Mai. Officials were bracing themselves for more red-shirt protesters because of the cancellation of the Bangkok protest; the government was ready to declare the ISA in effect for large portions of Chiang Mai during the time that Abhisit would be in the city, according to local media reports. A moderate red-shirt leader and a local leader for the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD, or "yellow-shirts") told CG Chiang Mai that the Prime Minister's decision forestalled likely violence that would have damaged Chiang Mai's economic recovery, though the PAD leader expressed regret that the red-shirts had successfully intimidated the PM and defied the rule of law. THAKSIN/RED WAY FORWARD UNCLEAR -------------- BANGKOK 00003015 002.2 OF 002 ¶5. (C) In the aftermath of the red cancellation of the planned Bangkok rally and PM Abhisit's cancellation of his Chiang Mai trip, which forestalled a red protest rally there, Thaksin associates put out renewed public feelers for a deal to end red protests in exchange for Thaksin avoiding jail time and recovering his frozen assets. While former PM SecGen Niphon Promphan confirmed earlier discussions of the parameters of such a deal to Ambassador in September, Niphon stressed that Thaksin would have to serve at least a token period in jail for such a deal to work, and that bottom line appeared to be a deal breaker (ref C). DPM Suthep reiterated this state of play to Ambassador November 27, further alleging that Thaksin aimed to use red-shirt protests to apply pressure on the King to grant him a pardon. JOHN