THAILAND: ABHISIT CANCELS CHIANG MAI TRIP IN THE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 003015

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

STATE FOR EAP/MLS, NSC FOR WALTON

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/27/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV TH
SUBJECT: THAILAND: ABHISIT CANCELS CHIANG MAI TRIP IN THE
FACE OF THREATS, RED PROTESTS DEFERRED FOR NOW

REF: A. CHIANG MAI 178 (PM'S PLANNED NOV. 29)

B. BANGKOK 3009 (THAKSIN PULLS THE PLUG)

C. BANGKOK 2455 (NIPHON)

BANGKOK 00003015 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: DCM JAMES F. ENTWISTLE, REASON 1.4 (B) AND (D)


1. (C) Summary: Bowing to concerns about his security in the
wake of local red-shirt threats to "cremate" him (ref A),
Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva on November 26 announced
that he would not travel to the northern city of Chiang Mai
as previously planned for a November 29 meeting with business
executives. The Chamber of Commerce provided a semi-face
saving gesture by rescinding its invitation to Abhisit in
recognition of fears his visit could lead to violent protests
at the start of the tourist high season, though the
government earlier suggested it was prepared to invoke the
Internal Security Act (ISA) in Chiang Mai and deploy
thousands of security forces to ensure the Prime Minister's
safety. While associates of fugitive former PM Thaksin
immediately put out public feelers for the possibility of a
deal in the wake of the stand-downs in both Bangkok and
Chiang Mai, DPM Suthep told Ambassador November 27 that no
such talks with the government were underway, and that the
respite from protests would likely be short, with Thaksin
aiming to keep the pressure up to secure a pardon for his
conviction and avoid jail time (septel will detail the Suthep
meeting in full).


2. (C) Comment: Abhisit's decision, combined with the UDD's
cancellation of rallies in Bangkok for this weekend (REF B),
palpably reduced tensions in the immediate short-term.
However, additional rallies and the potential for renewed red
violence remain mid-term concerns. Leaders for the United
Front for Democracy Against Dictatorship (UDD) said publicly
they intend to meet in mid-December to plot the way forward.
In a worrisome harbinger, violent red provocateur MGEN
Khattiya, aka Seh Daeng, was photographed in Dubai this
weekend meeting with Thaksin and "peaceful" UDD leaders like
Vira Musikapong. A high-ranking NIA official attending an
embassy Thanksgiving dinner also suggested to us that another
large-scale red protest was inevitable, because Thaksin had
already paid millions for it: an alleged 1.5 million baht to
each Puea Thai MP to deliver 1500 protesters each, and
500,000 baht to each would-be candidate for 500 protesters.
End Summary and Comment.

PM CANCELS CHIANG MAI TRIP AFTER INVITATION WITHDRAWN
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3. (U) Prime Minister Abhisit canceled plans to attend the
annual Thai Chambers of Commerce (TCC) meeting in Chiang Mai,
scheduled for Sunday, November 29. Abhisit said he scrapped
his planned trip after the TCC withdrew its invitation for
him to attend the three-day convention. TCC chairman Dusit
Nontanakorn told reporters that the council decided to
rescind the Prime Minister's invitation after consultation
with key members, who said they did not want to endanger
Abhisit or other meeting participants.


4. (SBU) Abhisit's subsequent announcement that he would not
attend the TCC meeting helped lower tension in Chiang Mai, a
red-shirt stronghold and Thaksin's hometown, according to
contacts of Consulate General Chiang Mai. Officials were
bracing themselves for more red-shirt protesters because of
the cancellation of the Bangkok protest; the government was
ready to declare the ISA in effect for large portions of
Chiang Mai during the time that Abhisit would be in the city,
according to local media reports. A moderate red-shirt
leader and a local leader for the People's Alliance for
Democracy (PAD, or "yellow-shirts") told CG Chiang Mai that
the Prime Minister's decision forestalled likely violence
that would have damaged Chiang Mai's economic recovery,
though the PAD leader expressed regret that the red-shirts
had successfully intimidated the PM and defied the rule of
law.

THAKSIN/RED WAY FORWARD UNCLEAR
--------------

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5. (C) In the aftermath of the red cancellation of the
planned Bangkok rally and PM Abhisit's cancellation of his
Chiang Mai trip, which forestalled a red protest rally there,
Thaksin associates put out renewed public feelers for a deal
to end red protests in exchange for Thaksin avoiding jail
time and recovering his frozen assets. While former PM
SecGen Niphon Promphan confirmed earlier discussions of the
parameters of such a deal to Ambassador in September, Niphon
stressed that Thaksin would have to serve at least a token
period in jail for such a deal to work, and that bottom line
appeared to be a deal breaker (ref C). DPM Suthep reiterated
this state of play to Ambassador November 27, further
alleging that Thaksin aimed to use red-shirt protests to
apply pressure on the King to grant him a pardon.
JOHN