THAILAND: REDS AND YELLOWS SET TO CONGREGATE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 002902 SIPDIS STATE FOR EAP/MLS, NSC FOR WALTON E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/13/2019 TAGS: PREL PGOV TH SUBJECT: THAILAND: REDS AND YELLOWS SET TO CONGREGATE (SEPARATELY) THIS WEEKEND REF: A. BANGKOK 2887 (THAKSIN EXTRADTION REJECTED) ¶B. BANGKOK 2855 (COLOR ME GREEN) ¶C. BANGKOK 2875 (THAKSIN PUTS HIS FOOT IN HIS MOUTH) ¶D. BANGKOK 2746 (THAKSIN MOVES PROMISE TURBULENT NOVEMBER) ¶E. BANGKOK 2405 (BRAWL NEAR BORDER) BANGKOK 00002902 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: POL Counselor George Kent, REASON 1.4 (B) AND (D) ¶1. (U) SUMMARY: The upcoming weekend will see red and yellow political rallies, though on different days and different parts of the country. On Saturday, November 14, the United Front for Democracy Against Dictatorship (UDD),aka "red-shirts," will hold a fundraising concert in Khao Yai National Park, two hours outside of Bangkok. On Sunday, November 15 the yellow-shirted People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) plans to hold a demonstration in downtown Bangkok protesting recent moves by fugitive former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra (REFS A and C). The rally will be PAD's first major public event since its Bangkok airport sieges ended December 2, 2008; over 10,000 "yellow-shirt" supporters are expected to attend. The PAD shifted the date of its rally from Saturday to Sunday so that it would not run concurrently with the red-shirt gathering; the PAD also shifted locations in Bangkok because the military is running a practice session for the December 2 King's birthday parade. The RTG announced that it would not invoke the Internal Security Act (ISA) for either gathering; all indications are that both rallies will be peaceful affairs. ¶2. (C) COMMENT: This weekend,s twin red and yellow events both seem poised to unfold without incident, which is welcome news after a turbulent week; we have used meetings with national red and yellow leaders in the past two weeks to underscore the need to stick to peaceful measures as they express their political views. With the diplomatic spat with Cambodia over fugitive former PM Thaksin's visit dominating headlines and PM Abhisit in Singapore for the APEC and US-ASEAN Leaders' Meetings, the rallies have not attracted as much attention as they otherwise might have. End Summary and Comment REDS HEAD TO THE HILLS, FOR ONE DAY, EYE ON LATE NOV. -------------- -------------- ¶3. (C) The UDD have directed supporters to converge on Khao �00A;Yai National Park on November 14. Located two hours from Bangkok in Nakhon Ratchasima Province, Khao Yai is the gateway to Thaksin's traditional stronghold in the northeast. Red-shirt leader Vira Musikapong told us the gathering would be a concert and fund-raiser with an eye on bringing in funding for the next big UDD protest (note: in early November call-ins to red rallies, Thaksin urged supporters to hold more sustained rallies in greater numbers. See ref D). ¶4. (C) When Vira suggested to us that next full fledged red-shirt rally was likely to begin November 28 or 29 and span three-five days, we asked how such a prolonged rally would affect the King's birthday celebration, which begins December 2 with the annual parade in which the military renews its oath of allegiance to King Bhumibol, in the same public space that red-shirts usually use for Bangkok rallies. Vira conceded the UDD was aware of the potential conflict, impishly acknowledged some red-shirts would relish the opportunity to "bash" the military, but said leaders would hold a meeting on November 20 to determine the best strategy to reconcile UDD plans with the King,s birthday. We urged Vira to ensure that the red-shirts stick to peaceful means to express their opposition to the government and avoid the escalation of street action which culminated in the red riots of April in Pattaya and Bangkok. PAD TO GATHER FOR FIRST TIME IN ALMOST A YEAR -------------- ¶5. (C) The PAD on November 10 announced it would gather supporters on Sunday, November 15 for the group's first national rally since December 2008; the national PAD leadership did not sanction the Preah Vihear border adventure BANGKOK 00002902 002.2 OF 002 on September 19 (REF A). PAD coordinator and Secretary General of the New Politics Party Suriyasai Katasila publicly stated the purpose of the rally to be held at Sanam Luang would be to protest Thaksin and Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen (REFS B, C). The Manager newspaper quoted Suriyasai saying that 100,000 people would attend the gathering; privately, however, he told us November 11 that he expected between 30,000 and 50,000 people would show up. (note: the police are predicting 10,000). ¶6. (C) The PAD movement is in transition to forming a new political party to promote its core ideas within the formal parliamentary system, as Suriyasai detailed to us November 4 (ref B). At the time, Suriyasai delineated the focus of the two vehicles in this way: the PAD would retain a focus on countering Thaksin's influence, while the New Politics Party would focus on reforming the political system and increasing transparency from within (note: there is currently complete overlap between the leadership of the PAD and the NPP). ISA: DOUBLE STANDARDS, OR DIFFERING INTENT? -------------- ¶7. (U) Deputy Prime Minister for security Suthep Thuagsuban on November 12 announced that the ISA would not be invoked for the PAD rally, which is not directed against the Thai government but against Thaksin and Hun Sen. Likewise there were no indications that the government planned to have security forces in any state of visible readiness for the PAD demonstration. Red-shirt netizens lit up the Internet in both Thai and English after hearing the news, accusing the RTG of employing a double-standard, given the seemingly automatic imposition of ISA for UDD rallies in the post Songkhran riot period. ¶8. (C) RTG contacts, including Deputy Secretary General Isra Sunthornvut, readily admitted in private conversations that the RTG employed double standards for crowd control. That said, rally intent is a key factor; at this point, red-shirts are calling for the current government to fall, yellow shirts not. Isra told us that while the PAD and the RTG did not see eye to eye on everything--as evidenced by the fact that the PAD felt compelled to create its own political vehicle--in general they shared similar perspectives on many core issues. JOHN