ANOTHER MONTH, ANOTHER RALLY: RED SHIRTS PLAN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 002657 SIPDIS STATE FOR EAP/MLS, NSC FOR WALTON E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/16/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM TH SUBJECT: ANOTHER MONTH, ANOTHER RALLY: RED SHIRTS PLAN OCTOBER 17 PROTEST REF: A. BANGKOK 2405 (RED SHIRT BANGKOK PROTEST PEACEFUL) ¶B. BANGKOK 2386 (RED SHIRTS PREPARE SEPTEMBER PROTEST) ¶C. BANGKOK 2260 (THAKSIN PARDON UNLIKELY) ¶D. BANGKOK 2180 (RED SHIRTS RALLY AGAIN) ¶E. BANGKOK 2034 (RED SHIRTS SUBMIT PETITION) Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission James F. Entwistle, reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: The red-shirt United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD) plan to rally October 17 to protest a perceived delay in processing the petition for a royal pardon for former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra (Ref E). Unlike previous protests, UDD leaders expect most participants to be from Bangkok, rather than supporters transported in from the provinces. Red-shirt spokesmen said the gathering of a projected 20 to 30,000 people would be peaceful; but cautioned that "suppression" by the government this weekend would trigger demonstrations by red-shirt supporters around the country and possibly lead to protests at the ASEAN Summit next week in the resort towns of Hua Hin and Cha Am. END SUMMARY ¶2. (SBU) COMMENT: While the occasion for this protest is nominally the completion of the sixty day period Prime Minister Abhisit said he needed to review the amnesty petition for Thaksin, the red-shirts are also capitalizing on other significant dates. There were a variety of commemorative events in Thailand on October 14 -- the anniversary of the 1973 uprising when many student activists were killed in a brutal government crackdown -- including a panel discussion at UDD headquarters. More important to the government, this rally is scheduled less than a week before the final ASEAN Summit during Thailand's chairmanship. Red-shirt sources say that a decision on whether to demonstrate at the Summit may hinge on what happens at Saturday's protest. END COMMENT. ANY EXCUSE FOR A PROTEST -------------- ¶3. (C) The UDD plans an October 17 protest of alleged delays in consideration of a petition for royal amnesty for Thaksin. The protest will mark 60 days since the petition was submitted, and PM Abhisit had pledged that the petition would be ready for royal review within that timeframe (Ref E). Even if a review had been completed, King Bhumibol's continued hospitalization would all but ensure that the petition would not be considered at this time. ¶4. (U) The Cabinet has once again invoked the Internal Security Act (ISA) in Bangkok's Dusit district from October 15 through the conclusion of the ASEAN Summit on October 25. Red-shirt leaders have announced that the peaceful protest will continue as planned, with a stage set up on the Chamai Maruchet Bridge near Government House, lasting from about 6:00 p.m. until midnight. Thaksin will reportedly participate via videoconference as he has with other demonstrations. UDD leaders have said they have no plans to march to any other locations or to attempt to enter the Government House compound. ¶5. (SBU) Poloff met October 14 with core UDD leader Jaran Dittaphichai and UDD spokesperson Sean Boonprakong. Both asserted that while their intention is to conduct a nonviolent protest, the invocation of the ISA and the presence of RTG security personnel could lead to violence. Jaran said a commander in the security forces directly cautioned him about the demonstration, to which Jaran responded "we are not afraid." While on prior occasions supporters were bussed in from UDD strongholds in the north and northeast, the UDD leaders stated that this rally will be mostly red-shirts from the 107 affiliated groups around Bangkok. Jaran anticipated a crowd of approximately 30,000, but joked that the media and RTG would report 20,000 no matter how many were present. While UDD groups from other provinces will not be directly involved on Saturday, Jaran said that they have been put on notice that if the protest in BANGKOK 00002657 002 OF 002 Bangkok was "suppressed" then they should be prepared to begin protests at provincial government sites and mobilize for the October 23-25 ASEAN Summit. ¶6. (SBU) In discussing the upcoming ASEAN Summit, both red-shirt activists were defensive about the events in Pattaya in April, when UDD took over the Summit venue thereby forcing the government to postpone the meetings until next week. They claimed that the April red-shirt actions were only in retaliation to provocation and that the leadership regretted that the inexperienced crowd had overreacted. Their strategy for the upcoming summit is to host a press conference for international media and to meet with foreign diplomats in Bangkok to present their position. The UDD also plans to send letters to the sixteen heads of state who will attend the ASEAN gathering. Jaran said these plans may change, however, if there is violence or repression during the October 17 rally. KEEPING THE CHIEFS IN LINE -------------- ¶7. (C) UDD spokesman Sean Boonprakong in a separate meeting with poloff revealed that 20-25 core UDD leaders met October 14 to discuss this weekend's protest and next steps. Sean claimed to be a moderate within the UDD, one who urged discipline and control of the movement's message. He described Jaran as an ideologue, but claimed that Jaran was not as much of a wildcard as were Chatuporn Prompan and Puea Thai party member and former MP Arisaman Pongruengrong, who seemed to eagerly look forward to violence on Saturday as an opportunity to escalate tensions. Sean said he believed that UDD principal Vira Musikapong would be able to effectively manage differing and dissenting opinions within the red shirts. Conversely, Sean expressed concern that Abhisit does not have control of the RTG security forces, which he predicted would lead to future problems. He anticipated the deployment of "fake red-shirts" by the Internal Security Operations Command or by Privy Council President General Prem Tinsulanonda in order to incite conflict. The RTG October 16 announced publicly that 6,600 soldiers and police and 350 Bangkok Metropolitan Administration officers would be stationed in areas around the rally site to maintain security and prevent violence. JOHN