THAILAND: FUTURE OF CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENTS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 002642

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EAP/MLS, NSC FOR WALTON

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/15/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV TH
SUBJECT: THAILAND: FUTURE OF CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENTS
INCREASINGLY UNCERTAIN

REF: A. BANGKOK 02459 (CHARTER CHANGE ONE STEP CLOSER TO
REALITY)

B. BANGKOK 02539 (RULING COALTION AGREES TO PATH
FORWARD)

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Classified By: DCM JAMES F. ENTWISTLE, REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D)


1. (U) SUMMARY: Following an October 13 teleconference with
fugitive former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, the Puea
Thai party reversed course and announced its opposition to
the same six proposed amendments to the 2007 Constitution it
had previously supported in negotiations with representatives
from the government, opposition, and Senate (REFS A and B).
Government coalition partners nevertheless agreed on the same
day to move the charter change process forward, though at
this point the next steps remain uncertain. Both sides claim
to be acting in the interest of national reconciliation, but
mixed reactions from within both camps indicate the issue is
far from resolved.


2. (C) COMMENT: Puea Thai's declaration has thrown the
Constitutional reform process for a potentially fatal loop.
Although the opposition appears to be divided over this
issue, as evidenced by contradictory statements made over the
preceding week, Thaksin's strong influence in Puea Thai
remains significant. Abhisit and his government appear
almost as divided as Puea Thai over how to deal with this
latest development, however, and regardless of how they
decide to proceed will likely face increased pressure. Last
week Abhisit said that if the proposed amendments cause
further societal discord that he would abandon the process
entirely, an option that, while viable to a certain degree,
holds some danger for the Prime Minister and his government.

THAKSIN TELLS PUEA THAI TO CRACK SOME EGGS
--------------


3. (U) Leaders from the opposition Puea Thai party met on
October 13, with Thaksin participating via video link, and
decided to oppose the proposal to amend six key points of the
2007 Constitution as agreed to in late September by the whips
of the government, opposition, and Senate. Titular party
leader Yongyuth Wichaidit said Puea Thai would boycott the
amendments and instead seek the full reinstatement of the
1997 Constitution. During the meeting Thaksin apologized for
the confusion over the last week ) including public
statements by Yongyuth that Puea Thai would not support the
changes, a statement that contradicted declarations of
cooperation made by Puea Thai's parliamentary whip, Witthaya
Buranasiri -- and said the misunderstanding arose because he
had been communicating with several people, both in person
and long-distance. In his remarks Thaksin referred to the
2007 charter as a "monitor egg," a clear statement of disdain
for the current constitution. (Note: The colloquial term for
the monitor lizard is an extremely vulgar pejorative term in
Thai, used to denote distasteful or disgusting things.
Thaksin did not use the pejorative, but clearly implied that
he considers the 2007 Constitution to be the illegitimate
product of the 2006 coup that removed him from power. End
Note.)


4. (C) Puea Thai MP Phiraphan Phalusuk told us that former
Prime Minister Thaksin initially pushed the party to oppose
the amendments in an October 11 phone-in speech, at which
point he expressed his disapproval of the amendment effort
and said he preferred to push for the reinstatement of the
1997 charter. Phiraphan -- who has been a principal
representative for the opposition in negotiations to amend
the charter -- bemoaned the fact that this reversal
effectively negated Puea Thai's cooperative efforts;
nevertheless, he said Puea Thai would now stand firm and
united in pressing for the restoration of the 1997
Constitution.

COALITION COMMITMENT TO CHANGE MIGHT NOT BE ENOUGH
-------------- --------------


5. (U) Shortly after Puea Thai's announcement, the government
coalition partners declared their plan to move forward with

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the amendment process (REF B). Prime Minister Abhisit
chaired an hour-long meeting with titular and de facto
leaders from Chart Thai Phattana, Phumjai Thai, Ruam Jai
Thai, and Puea Phaendin, and after the meeting Chart Thai
Phattana leader Somsak Prisanananthakul announced that the
coalition leaders would back the proposals. The
parliamentary working group will submit the amendment drafts
to the coalition whips, the opposition, and the Senate on
October 22.


6. (U) Public reactions from government officials paint a
less unified picture, however. Deputy Prime Minister Suthep
Thuagsuban said the charter changes could not proceed without
Puea Thai's participation. On the other hand, Deputy Prime
Minister for social affairs Sanan Kachornprasart insisted
that the process could proceed without the opposition party,
adding that the most important step for the government at
this time would be to create an understanding with the
People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) and the 40 senators who
strongly oppose amending the charter. Government whip
Chinnaworn Bunyakiet expressed some hope that Puea Thai
leaders would change their minds and return to the process
before the scheduled October 22 tripartite meeting.

DEMOCRAT PARTY BETWEEN A ROCK AND A HARD PLACE
-------------- -


7. (C) Democrat Party MP Niphon Bunyamanee told us that with
Puea Thai's withdrawal from the charter change process,
national reconciliation was impossible. He said Thaksin
hoped to force the dissolution of parliament in the belief
that Puea Thai would return to power in subsequent elections.
He said it was now incumbent on the Democrat Party and the
coalition to find a "proper landing" to scrap the amendment
plan, according to Niphon.


8. (C) Yongyuth told us the proposed amendments were useless
and cheated the public. The only path to national
reconciliation, he insisted, was through the reactivation of
the 1997 Constitution. Now the Democrat Party was in a
really difficult position, Yongyuth said; moving forward with
the amendments risked incurring the wrath of the PAD, while
backtracking could offend coalition partners and the general
public. Puea Thai and the United Front for Democracy against
Dictatorship (UDD) would increase their pressure on the
government, which Yongyuth believed the coalition could not
withstand.
JOHN