THAILAND: RED SHIRTS PREPARE TO MARCH ON THIRD

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 002386

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EAP/MLS, NSC FOR BADER, WALTON

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/03/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV TH
SUBJECT: THAILAND: RED SHIRTS PREPARE TO MARCH ON THIRD
ANNIVERSARY OF COUP WHICH OUSTED THAKSIN

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Classified By: Ambassador Eric G. John, reason 1.4 (b,d)


1. (C) Summary: The United Front for Democracy against
Dictatorship (UDD),aka the "red-shirts," will gather at
Sanam Luang on Saturday, September 19 to mark the third
anniversary of the coup that ousted fugitive former Prime
Minister Thaksin Shinawatra. UDD leaders claim an estimated
50-60,000 will join the demonstration and insist the rally
will be peaceful; authorities predict 20-30,000 may join. As
with the aborted August 30 demonstration, Prime Minister
Abhisit Vejjajiva has invoked the Internal Security Act (ISA)
in advance of the rally to try to head off any potential
trouble from the red-shirts. During Ambassador,s September
18 meeting with Yongyuth Wichaidit, leader of the opposition
Puea Thai party, like the UDD seen as taking direction from
Thaksin, Yongyuth said that he expected that the red rally
would unfold without incident. However, he warned any deaths
or injuries to red-shirt members could trigger tremendous
backlash (SEPTEL).


2. (SBU) Comment: After two aborted demonstrations in the
past four weeks, the anti-government UDD appears determined
to stage its rally this time. The government,s decision to
invoke the ISA seems logical when viewed through the lens of
the chaos and violence that gripped Bangkok and Pattaya
during red demonstrations this past April. We suspect the
move should prove sufficient to prevent events from spinning
out of control. That said, while UDD leaders have assured us
that the gathering would be peaceful, their public
acknowledgement that some demonstrators would carry weapons
for self-defense underscores the potential for trouble
anytime red-shirts hit the streets. We will monitor events
on September 19 and have issued a Warden message. End
Summary and Comment.

WE'RE GOING TO RALLY THIS TIME...REALLY
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3. (SBU) After two aborted demonstrations in the past four
weeks, the anti-government UDD appears determined to stage a
rally on Saturday, September 19 to mark the three year
anniversary of the coup which removed then PM Thaksin while
he was attending the UN General Assembly in New York.
Red-shirt leaders claimed to us that 50,000 to 60,000 people
-- nearly double tQeQQ^Q~L~Thaksin will address the
rally at 8:30 that evening via a video link, after which the
demonstrators plan to march to the home of Privy Council
President General Prem Tinsulanon. For their part,
authorities have vowed to restrict access to the street on
which Prem resides.


4. (U) At a luncheon for the diplomatic corps and foreign
journalists on September 17, UDD core leader Vira Musikapong
claimed the Saturday rally would be peaceful, noting that the
UDD was planning for an unspecified "something" on September
21, 22, and 30. When pressed by a reporter to elaborate
further, Vira specified only that key court rulings were due
on those dates. On the 21st the verdict in the rubber
sapling case (in which behind the scenes power broker Newin
Chidchob is implicated) would be announced; on the 22nd the
case against the Samak administration related to Preah Vihear
agreements was due, while on the 30th, they expected a
verdict in lottery case against Thaksin.

GOVERNMENT PREPARING FOR TROUBLE
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5. (U) As was the case in advance of the previously planned
August 30 red-shirt protest, the Cabinet approved invocation
of the ISA for Dusit district, which encompasses the area
surrounding Sanam Luang and Government House starting Friday,
September 18 through Tuesday, September 22. The government
has readied up to 6,500 police officers and soldiers to
maintain order at the rally site. After PM Abhisit met with
military and police officials September 17 to discuss ISA
implementation, the government announced that demonstrators

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would be banned from approaching Government House and Prem's
home.

PUEA THAI LEADER EXPECTS RALLY TO BE PEACEFUL
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6. (C) During the Ambassador,s September 18 meeting with Pue
Thai leader Yongyuth Wichaidit, Yongyuth told the Ambassador
that he expected the September 19 rally to take place without
incident. That said, Yongyuth worried that in the event any
red-shirts were hurt by government security forces, a
"crisis" could quickly ensue. On balance, however, Yongyuth
suspected violence was unlikely.
JOHN