THAILAND: ELECTION COMMISSION FLEXES MUSCLES ON MP

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BANGKOK 002352

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EAP/MLS, NSC FOR WALTON

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/14/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM TH
SUBJECT: THAILAND: ELECTION COMMISSION FLEXES MUSCLES ON MP
CONFLICT OF INTEREST, BUT TO LITTLE APPARENT EFFECT

REF: A. BANGKOK 2289 (THAI DOMESTIC POLITICAL ROUNDUP)

B. BANGKOK 2207 (DEMOCRAT PARTY PREVAILS)

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Classified By: POL Counselor George Kent, REASON: 1.4 (B, D)

SUMMARY AND COMMENT
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1. (C) Over the course of the last three months, the Election
Commission has indicted a total of 29 House members and 16
Senators, out of 480 and 150 respectively, from across the
party spectrum for conflict of interest transgressions
related to share holdings in media or telecom firms with
state concessions. The House and Senate speakers must
forward the cases to the Constitutional Court, which will
then evaluate the merits of the indictments on a case-by-case
basis. In the event the Constitutional Court upholds some or
all of the indictments, the resulting wave of parliamentary
disqualifications and subsequent by-elections could slightly
adjust the balance of power in the House, though it is
unlikely to trigger a change in government. Most analysts
suspect, however, that thanks to deliberate foot dragging at
every turn, the Constitutional Court is unlikely to render a
verdict on the indictments before the next round of elections
takes place (date as yet undetermined). Under this scenario,
a new election would make the Election Commission's pending
indictments -- with the specter of parliamentary
disqualification -- a moot point. Even so, the watchdog
action may force more transparency and care on future MP
candidate asset declarations. End Summary and Comment.

THREE ROUNDS OF INDICTMENTS FOR INAPPROPRIATE SHAREHOLDING
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2. (SBU) On June 18, the Election Commission -- which
enforces election-related laws, a broader mandate than just
overseeing elections -- indicted 16 Senators for holding
shares in media or telecom firms with state concessions, a
direct violation of Articles 48 and 265 of the Constitution.
Of the 16 Senators in question, eight were appointed and
eight were directly elected (Note: Of the 150 Senators in
total, 76 are elected, and 74 are appointed seats. Senators
-- who are by law unaffiliated with political parties -- have
largely ceremonial positions. End Note.)


3. (SBU) On July 16, the Election Commission filed its next
round of indictments against 13 Democrat party
parliamentarians for the same violation. Deputy Prime
Minister Suthep Thaugsuban was one of the 13 members
indicted. He chose to step down in July rather than fight the
indictment (Note: Suthep sold the shares in cable provider
TrueCorp in 2008, after being elected but before joining the
Cabinet in December 2008. End Note.) Suthep's brother,
Thani Thaugsuban, won a by-election last month and replaced
him in the House (REF B).


4. (SBU) Finally, on September 9, the Election Commission
unveiled the last of the three waves of indictments, charging
16 MPs with running afoul of the same prohibition on owning
shares in telecom firms with government concessions. The
indictment involves members from five different political
parties, some in opposition, and some in the coalition
government: Puea Thai (8 members); Puea Paendin (3 members);
Phumjai Thai (2 members); Pracharaj (2 members); and Chart
Thai Pattana (1 member).

SLOW ROLL BY THE SPEAKERS
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5. (SBU) According to Thailand's Constitution, the ball is
now firmly in the Speaker's court on both the House and
Senate side. The House and Senate Speakers must pass the
cases to the Constitutional Court before the Court can
evaluate the merits of the individual indictments. The
Constitution does not require either Speaker to do so within
a set period of time, however, and both seem to have
exploited this fact.

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6. (SBU) On the House side of the ledger, House Speaker Chai
Chidchob -- who is a member of the coalition Phumjai Thai
Party -- has already drawn the ire of Election Commissioner
Sodsri Sattayatham for not submitting the first round of
House indictments to the Constitutional Court nearly two
months after the fact. Senate Speaker Prasopsuk has
similarly come under fire, though there are signs he may soon
relent. Strategically speaking, Speaker Chai has no
incentive to move the indictments forward though as any
potential disqualifications would disproportionately effect
his party's presence (32 seats),as well as well as the
governing coalition's foothold in the Parliament.


7. (SBU) House Speaker Chai has tried to justify his glacial
pace by suggesting that he should not act on the indictments
until the Supreme Administrative Court had first ruled
whether the Election Commission exceeded its mandate in
pursuing the indictments (Note: The 16 indicted Senators have
appealed their indictments to the Supreme Administrative
Court, arguing that the Election Commission was not
authorized to take action against them. Any ruling on the
case would have implications for the House members as well.
End Note.) Constitutional Law expert Dr. Prinya
Thaewanarumitkul characterized Chai's approach to us
September 14 as a "political tactic" designed simply to slow
down the wheels of justice. According to Dr. Prinya, though
the appeal had virtually no chance of success, it would
provide Chai the political cover necessary to hold on to the
indictments as long as possible.

CONSTITUTIONAL COURT
--------------


8. (C) Assuming the indictments eventually make their way to
the Constitutional Court, there is little evidence to suggest
the Court would be in more of a hurry to render a verdict
than the Speakers were. According to Dr. Prinya, the
Constitutional Court was not considered "neutral" by most
observers; he cited decisions involving the dissolution of
the People Power Party (the Puea Thai predecessor),and the
removal of former PM Samak from office as evidence of the
court's bias. Prinya nevertheless considered the indictments
against the Parliamentarians to be open and shut cases that
even the Constitutional Court would have a hard time
rejecting.


9. (C) In Dr. Prinya's estimation, barring an unlikely
verdict rejecting the indictments, the next best thing the
Court could do to help the government would be to drag its
feet. As a result, Dr. Prinya's best guess was that the
Court would delay issuing a verdict until after the next
round of elections, by which point the disqualification
penalty would be irrelevant, as the affected MPs would have
already lost their seats (Note: MPs disqualified on such
grounds are not barred from pursuing their seats again.)

POTENTIAL IMPLICATIONS
--------------


10. (SBU) In the event of a Constitutional Court decision to
disqualify some or all the Parliamentarians under indictment,
the Democrats and the ruling coalition would almost certainly
be affected the most, and face the need/expense to win
by-elections to maintain the current balance. Of the 28
House members currently under indictment, 17 are members of
the governing coalition, including: 12 Democrats; 2 Puea
Paendin members; 2 Phumjai Thai members; and 1 member of
Chartthai Pattana. On the other hand, the opposition Puea
Thai party and its partner Pracharaj have only 10 members
facing indictment.


11. (C) Given this reality -- as well as the coalition's
already fragile hold on power -- it appears the governing
coalition is actively rooting for the process to take as long
as possible. As it stands, the Democrats have only 173 seats
to Puea Thai's 188; the effective pro-government majority in

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