THAILAND: PM ABHISIT LOSES POLICE CHIEF

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 002125 SIPDIS STATE FOR EAP/MLS, NSC FOR WALTON E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/23/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM TH SUBJECT: THAILAND: PM ABHISIT LOSES POLICE CHIEF BATTLE...FOR NOW REF: BANGKOK 2009 (SIX MONTH CHECK-UP) BANGKOK 00002125 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: DCM James F. Entwistle, reasons 1.4 (b, d) SUMMARY AND COMMENT -------------- ¶1. (C) In the latest sign of Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva's tenuous political positioning, the Royal Thai Police Office's 11-member board rejected Abhisit's nominee for the National Police Chief job August 20. The vote represented not only an embarrassing public rebuke for Abhisit, but it also dramatically underscored Abhisit's inability to dictate his agenda on even core issues like law and order. Two members of the Phumjai Thai party (a crucial member of the governing coalition) helped thwart Abhisit's candidate by casting decisive "no" votes, amidst stories that Democrat Party power broker DPM Suthep was siding with Phumjai Thai rather than backing his own party leader, calling into question the long-term viability of the Democrat Party's Faustian pact with Phumjai Thai and Abhisit's leadership of his own party. While we believe Abhisit will ride out this latest political storm and perhaps even secure approval for his Police Chief candidate, it is clear that, at least for now, Abhisit remains on a very short political leash. End Summary and Comment. ABHSIT'S MISCALCULATION -------------- ¶2. (SBU) On August 20, PM Abhisit sought to end several weeks of speculation about the National Police Chief position by putting his preferred candidate -- Police General Prateep Tunprasert -- to a vote before the 11-member Royal Thai Police Office Board. Prateep enjoys a reputation as a relatively clean cop and seemed to represent a natural choice for Abhisit and his ongoing good governance campaign. ¶3. (C) Current Chief Patcharawat Wongsuwan (the Defense Minister's brother) faces compulsory retirement at the end of September but has been dogged by controversy ever since the October 7, 2008 police-People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) clash in front of parliament left two dead and hundreds injured. Allegations by a ruling party MP that a Patcharawat ally was selling positions on the upcoming promotion list, and complaints by an assistant Police Chief that Patcharawat was preventing an investigation into the attempted assassination of PAD leader Sondhi, further undermined 
Patcharawat. PM Abhisit concluded he had the executive prerogative to name Patcharawat's replacement. Unfortunately for Abhisit, he did not line up the votes on the Board ahead of time. ¶4. (C) The 11-member Board rejected Police General Prateep by a five to four vote (Abhisit and another Board member abstained) thanks in large measure to "no" votes from two Phumjai Thai associates represented on the Board: Interior Minister (and Party leader) Chavarat Charnvirakul; and recently appointed Interior Permanent Secretary Manit Wattanasen, seen as close to Phumjai Thai de facto leader Newin Chidchob. Both had publicly supported another candidate -- Police General Jumpol Manmai -- for the lucrative money generating position, and criticized the Prime Minister after the fact for not allowing board members to choose from multiple candidates. According to Embassy contacts, however, the real reason they sabotaged Abhisit's candidate was more straightforward: Phumjai Thai wanted a Police Chief it could control. ABHISIT STAYS THE COURSE -------------- ¶5. (SBU) In the wake of the Police Chief vote debacle, calls for Abhisit's resignation were swift and more or less broke down along predictable political lines, with former PM Thaksin's allies leading the charge. Thaksin's proxies in the Pheu Thai party argued the vote provided clear evidence BANGKOK 00002125 002.2 OF 002 of Abhisit's inability to govern effectively and control his own cabinet, with some members forcefully calling on the PM to dissolve parliament. ¶6. (SBU) Meanwhile, Abhisit brushed off the vote setback and publicly vowed to try again, declaring: "this kind of situation has happened in the past. Pratheep still has a chance because the law says the Prime Minister is entitled to propose a new police chief for the approval of the board." Abhisit also suggested he would pursue a compromise with the Interior Minister in the interest of putting his candidate in place. In public appearances and media events subsequent to the vote, Abhisit remained composed and even playfully characterized media coverage of the issue as overblown. A CAPTAIN NOT FULLY IN CONTROL OF HIS SHIP -------------- ¶7. (C) Despite assurances to the contrary, the vote setback amounted to a political belly flop for Abhisit. At a minimum, the vote demonstrated Abhisit's political naivete and/or inability to count heads before a relatively straightforward up or down vote; he badly miscalculated the support he could expect for his candidate. Embassy contacts from across the political spectrum have privately characterized this latest setback as an alarming repudiation of Abhisit and perhaps an ominous harbinger of things to come for him. The incident made Abhisit look weak the moment most would agree he could least afford it. ¶8. (C) The vote debacle also served to re-focus the media spotlight on two fundamental political realities for Abhisit, namely: Deputy Prime Minister Suthep Thaugsuban seems to routinely place coalition management over his own Prime Minister's agenda, as well as the fact that the coalition itself is nothing more than a messy marriage of convenience with all the attendant risks and downsides. Mission contacts confirm DPM Suthep -- who also doubles as the Democrat party's Secretary General -- has maintained a zealous focus on keeping the coalition in place, with a particular emphasis on tending to relations with Phumjai Thai and the army. At the same time, Newin and Phumjai Thai party appear perfectly content to milk their relationship with the Democrats for all its worth, secure in the knowledge Newin and Phumjai Thai amount to Kingmakers. JOHN