RED SHIRTS PEACEFULLY PETITION THE KING

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 002034

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EAP/MLS, NSC FOR BADER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/17/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM TH
SUBJECT: RED SHIRTS PEACEFULLY PETITION THE KING

REF: A. A. BANGKOK 2009 (ABHISIT CHECK-UP)

B. B. BANGKOK 1817 (AMBASSADOR MEETS WITH REDSHIRTS)

C. C. BANGKOK 1265 (POLITICAL ROUNDUP)

D. D. BANGKOK 1157 (POLITICAL IMPASSE)

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Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission James F. Entwistle, reasons 1.4
(b) and (d).

SUMMARY AND COMMENT
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1. (C) On August 17, more than 20,000 "red-shirt"
sympathizers of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra
assembled in a park adjacent to the Grand Palace to show
support for a massive signature gathering petition campaign
seeking royal amnesty for Thaksin (Ref A). Despite wide
spread concerns leading up to the rally, the event took place
without incident. Thaksin called in before and after the
rally, thanking supporters for their efforts on his behalf
and pledging loyalty to the King. Event organizers claimed
the petition campaign itself netted some 5 million
signatures, which were subsequently delivered to the King's
Principal Private Secretary at the Palace gates. According
to Thai law, the petition will NOW move to the Ministry of
Justice and the Prime Minister's office for review and an
official recommendation to the King. Prime Minister Abhisit
Vejjajiva has already signaled that he will reject Thaksin's
clemency bid on legal grounds.


2. (C) Comment: On one hand, Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva
dodged a major bullet today as fears of an unruly mob of red
shirts fighting in the streets failed to materialize. On the
other hand, Thaksin and his supporters achieved their primary
goal: they successfully dragged the King into the political
mud. Even if there is no formal legal mechanism or
requirement for the King to entertain the amnesty petition,
by stirring up such a public spectacle, Thaksin managed to
corner those around the King, the bureaucrat-aristocrats
known as "amat" that the red-shirts seek to displace (the
slogan from the April red-shirt protests was "Kon amat" -
overthrow the aristocrats). If Abhisit follows through on
his promise to weigh-in against the petition, or if Palace
officials opt to slow roll it (they normally have up to a
year to respond),the red-shirts will likely claim the
"amat" are preventing the people's appeal to their King.
Either way, Thaksin has created what he hopes will be a
lose-lose proposition for the government and his opponents, a
clear sign that he intends to continue to make life difficult
for Abhisit for the forseeable future. End Summary and
Comment.

RED SHIRTS ASSEMBLE PEACEFULLY
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3. (C) On August 17, more than 20,000 members of the
anti-government United Front for Democracy against
Dictatorship (UDD) gathered peacefully in a park across from
the Grand Palace (Note: the head count ranges from 20,000 to
50,000, depending on the source. End Note.) The group
assembled in a show of support for the UDD's petition seeking
royal amnesty for former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra.
The majority of the Thaksin supporters were bussed in from
the north and northeast and they began arriving en masse as
early as one in the morning. They braved early morning
thundershowers and were treated in return to a festive
atmosphere marked by music, food, and a 30 minute phone-in
speech by their hero, former PM Thaksin. Despite wide spread
concerns leading up to the gathering about the potential for
unrest, no incidents were reported. Some 4000 police
officers stayed on the scene throughout the day to maintain
the peace.


4. (C) During his call-in speech just after 10am, Thaksin
thanked his supporters for their efforts on his behalf,
exhorted them to continue to their fight for "justice," and
maintained his innocence. Thaksin then led the crowd in
chants of "Long Live the King," swore his allegiance to the
Crown and -- for good measure -- sang a pro-monarchy song.
Thaksin also praised the King's role as a unifying figure and
asked Thai citizens to unite "under the same color."


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5. (C) At approximately 1pm, 15 red shirts notables
(including five monks) approached the Grand Palace gates with
the petition seeking Royal clemency for Thaksin, as well as
38 boxes packed with some 5 million signatures in support of
the petition. UDD heavyweight Veera Musikapong read the
petition aloud, before handing it over to Mr. Inchan
Buraphan, the King's Deputy Principal Private Secretary.
Palace officials and law enforcement authorities then
inspected the boxes for over an hour, before bringing them
into the Palace compound for processing. Veera and the red
shirts then moved back across to the park and led the crowd
in a spirited rendition of the Royal Anthem. At just after
230pm, the crowd dispersed without incident.

NEXT STEPS FOR THE PETITION
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6. (C) As a practical matter, the petition itself is not
likely to have any impact on the outstanding legal cases
pending against Thaksin. While Thai law does allow for two
types of Royal petitions: general and legal, the UDD petition
fails to meet the requirements for either. General petitions
cannot be filed in criminal cases, while legal petitions can
only be filed in the event a Thai citizen has already been
incarcerated. In the case of a criminal petition, only the
individual already incarcerated, his or her family members,
or the Ministry of Justice can file the petition with the
King.


7. (C) After the petition is processed by Palace officials,
it will eventually work its way to the Ministry of Justice
and the Prime Minister's office for a formal review of the
merits of the case. The Prime Minister's office will then
forward a recommendation to the King for his consideration.
Given the fact that PM Abhisit already announced that he
would dismiss the petition on legal grounds, there appears to
be little mystery about what will happen next. Though the
King could theoretically choose to override PM Abhisit's
recommendation to dismiss the petition, given its serious
procedural flaws, the King is almost certain to concur with
the PM's decision.

THAKSIN'S SAVVY MANEUVER
--------------


8. (C) While the petition itself will probably not pave the
way for Thaksin's return to Thailand, all the hoopla and
attendant coverage surrounding the signature drive and UDD
rally put Thaksin back in his favorite place: the spotlight.
Probably even more importantly from Thaksin's perspective,
the amnesty campaign successfully dragged the King into the
political trenches, compelling him to take a public stand one
way or another on the amnesty petition.


9. (C) During an August 14 meeting with core red shirt
leaders Jaran Ditapichai and Weng Tojirakarn, Jaran openly
admitted to us that the UDD's primary objective in the
petition campaign was to drag the King into politics. Jaran
characterized the signature gathering campaign and upcoming
rally as a "win-win" proposition for Thaksin and the red
shirts, and conceded the group never expected the King would
grant Thaksin his amnesty in the first place.
JOHN