SOUTHERN VIOLENCE: COORDINATED ARSON ATTACKS IN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 001291 SIPDIS NSC FOR PHU E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/28/2019 TAGS: PGOV PHUM PINR PREL PTER TH SUBJECT: SOUTHERN VIOLENCE: COORDINATED ARSON ATTACKS IN YALA REF: BANGKOK 1276 (ACADEMICS AND NGOS REFUTE CLAIMS ABOUT SECURITY GAINS) BANGKOK 00001291 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: POL Counselor George Kent, REASON 1.4 (B) AND (D) Summary and Comment -------------- ¶1. (SBU) Summary: Suspected insurgents conducted a series of coordinated bomb and arson attacks on commercial targets close to Yala city center, in Yala province early May 27. All though there were no casualties, press sources as well as independent analysts believe this was the largest coordinated arson attack in the South in over two years. The attacks took our Thai government contacts in Yala by surprise; there is a heightened security posture in the city because of the annual Red Cross fair. Our contacts told us that these attacks, possibly intended by the insurgents as a show of strength, will have a chilling effect on the local population. DPM Suthep, in charge of security issues, and Army Commander Anupong traveled together to the deep South May 28 in a previously scheduled trip to review the situation in the deep south. ¶2. (C) Comment: Although we have not ruled out the possibility that the real motivation for these attacks may have had something to do with a business dispute, all our contacts have told us they are certain they were carried out by insurgents; this is in contrast to a recent killing of a schoolteacher, blamed on insurgents in the media but believed by contacts to have been the result of personal/business disputes. If the Yala arson attacks were indeed perpetrated by the insurgents, it is a clear demonstration that they have maintained their ability to conduct operations despite continued pressure by the security forces. With national leaders distracted by the national political drama, the Abhisit government has not managed to devote as much time, energy, and resources towards addressing the southern situation as Abhisit vowed to do upon entering officer; Suthep and Anupong's joint visit is unlikely to change that dynamic or lead to substantial policy shifts. End Summary and Comment. A Rude awakening -------------- ¶3. (SBU) Yala city center was awoken at 0410 on May 27 by a series of coordinated explosions and arson attacks. According to our sources in the Yala Provincial Defense Office, suspected insurgents attacked eight targets near the center of Yala between 0410 and 0600. Press sources put the total number of targets at nine, with one target being hit at about 0900. The arson targets included three warehouses, a furniture shop, and a mobile phone signal tower; the bombed targets included an auto service center, an ATM booth, the Caf of the Yala Rama hotel, and a department store. The police told us that three of the bombs exploded at the same time, 0410, and that there were no casualties or injuries. A variety of press and embassy contacts contend this was the biggest coordinated arson attack in Yala since February 22, 2007, when a series of coordinated attacks destroyed a rubber warehouse in Yala and left eight people dead and some 70 wounded over a 24 hour period. ¶4. (C) The attacks indicated the networks of insurgents were still very active despite the progress made by security forces in arresting suspects, Yala,s Vice Governor for security affairs, Grisada Boonrach, suggested to us later May ¶27. In addition to the enormous physical damage caused by these attacks (according to press sources, about $3 million), the psychological impact the attacks will have on Yala residents will be severe, he predicted. The insurgents managed to conduct a coordinated large-scale attack on the most secure part of the city during a period of heightened security due to the presence of the annual Red Cross fair. Grisada said that the scale and scope of the operation indicated to him that the insurgents were attempting to BANGKOK 00001291 002.2 OF 002 demonstrate their power and potential. ¶5. (C) In a similar vein, Human Rights Watch contact Sunai Phasuk characterized the attacks as an effort by the insurgents to test their ability to conduct coordinated attacks in the face of a massive security presence and in the wake of a year long crack-down by security officials; the fact that the insurgents could successfully launch such an attack had frightened people. Sunai said that although the attacks were definitely perpetrated by insurgents, there may be some "business" reason the specific targets were selected, adding that it was his understanding that many businesses in the South either directly supported the insurgents, or paid protection money; targeted business establishments were often those that did not pay the required money. JOHN