THAKSIN'S REVOLUTIONARY RHETORIC

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 001059 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/29/2019 TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR KJUS TH SUBJECT: THAKSIN'S REVOLUTIONARY RHETORIC REF: A. BANGKOK 991 (ARREST WARRANTS) ¶B. BANGKOK 974 (BANGKOK CALM) ¶C. 08 BANGKOK 3280 (THAKSIN ADDRESSES RALLY) ¶D. 06 BANGKOK 5836 (MONARCHY'S ROLE IN COUP) ¶E. 06 BANGKOK 1214 (SURAYUD ON STATE OF PLAY) BANGKOK 00001059 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: Charge d'Affaires, a.i. James F. Entwistle, reason: 1.4 (b and d). SUMMARY AND COMMENT -------------- ¶1. (C) In the run-up to mid-April riots in Bangkok, former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra used increasingly incendiary rhetoric. Although Thaksin has subsequently asserted he supports only peaceful measures, his public call for a "revolution" and for the supremacy of "the people" over sometimes-unspecified members of the elite on the eve of the street violence reinforced many Thais' perception that Thaksin aims to marginalize if not overthrow the monarchy. The perception that Thaksin has gone too far in his public statements has led some in the anti-government United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD) movement to distance themselves from Thaksin, at least publicly. ¶2. (C) Comment: As Prime Minister from 2001-06, Thaksin implemented populist programs that contributed significantly to the development of political awareness and demands by Thailand's oft-neglected rural population. Ironically, Thaksin's most dramatic calls for political change now come even as we hear that he is more concerned with his personal financial benefits than with the transformation of Thai society (ref B). Whether moves by some "red" leaders to distance their cause from its erstwhile sponsor can succeed remains an open question, given the centrality of his funds and personal appeal to the red base to the success of the movement to date. The RTG is increasing its efforts to isolate Thaksin as he remains a fugitive abroad -- ref A explains the RTG's revocation of his passport and the issuance of a new arrest warrant. Any foreign government that appears sympathetic to Thaksin likely imperils its interests vis-a-vis Thailand's current administration, as well as the monarchy and military. End Summary and Comment. ESCALATING RHETORIC -------------- ¶3. (C) During recent anti-government protests by the anti-government United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD -- aka "redshirts"),former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, the group's unofficial patron, used highly incendiary rhetoric in speeches to his supporters via video link. On April 9, according to a translation by English-language daily The Nation, Thaksin called for "the last revolution of the country to root out all the elite members who are behind the coup of 2006," and he stated: "The power of the people is paramount. There must be no other power beyond the power of the people any more." ¶4. (C) Days earlier, Thaksin publicly denounced Privy Councilors Prem Tinsulanonda and Surayud Chulanont as instigators of the 2006 coup. After the mid-April disturbances, citing former General Pallop Pinmanee as his source, Thaksin claimed to the Financial Times that King Bhumibol himself was informed in advance of the coup. (Comment: Ref D reported our uncertainty whether the King knew in advance of the coup. We are skeptical of both Thaksin's and Pallop's veracity, and we continue to believe it possible that the King did not have advance knowledge of the coup. Palace staff continue to insist he did not. End Comment.) ¶5. (C) According to Thai constitutions (including the present one),the King "shall be enthroned in a position of revered worship and shall not be violated." Despite repeated professions of loyalty to the King, Thaksin's recent statements appeared bold and taboo-breaking, outside the usual boundaries of Thai political discourse. On earlier occasions, Thaksin has arguably acted, through both words and symbolic actions, in ways designed to erode the status of the BANGKOK 00001059 002.2 OF 002 King, or at least to reveal that Thaksin lacked the respect for the monarchy that most mainstream politicians profess. ¶6. (C) In early 2006, then-PM Thaksin conjured up less-than-reverential imagery when he said publicly that he would resign from office if the King would "whisper in my ear" that he should do so (ref E). In November 2008, Thaksin seemed to dispute the widely-acknowledged supremacy of the monarchy when he publicly indicated (in what an associate of his told us was a carefully-crafted statement) that "the people's power" could function as an alternative to "royal mercy" in enabling him to return from abroad (ref C). RESPONSIBILITY FOR RIOTS -------------- ¶7. (C) After mobs of Thaksin's supporters engaged in violent and unruly actions in Bangkok April 12-14, Thaksin told the international media that he intended the "revolution" for which he called to come about only through peaceful means. (Note: Thaksin used the Thai word "patiwat" for "revolution." As in English, the Thai term, when used in a political context, entails the overthrow of a government, but not necessarily through bloodshed or violence. End note.) His subsequent messages have been mixed. One day he appealed for the King to intervene to stop the violence/bloodshed, the next he threatened violence could return if red demands remained unmet. In the most recent statement directed at a Thai audience, released on April 28, Thaksin spoke of fighting for democracy but explicitly stated this should be "non-violent." ¶8. (C) Nevertheless, some Thais appear to feel that Thaksin and his supporters went too far. At a peaceful UDD rally in Bangkok on April 25, UDD leaders appeared not to mention Thaksin, who did not address the crowd by phone or video link. In an April 28 meeting, UDD co-leader Charan Ditthaphichai told us that he believed it important that his movement focus more on the cause of countering systemic injustice and achieving full-fledged democracy, and less on Thaksin's personal circumstances and agenda, though he acknowledged the red movement had to sort out what its relationship will be with Thaksin. ENTWISTLE