PRESIDENT TOURE'S BOOSTERS FACE IDENTITY CRISIS AS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BAMAKO 000146

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/05/2019
TAGS: PGOV PINR KDEM ML
SUBJECT: PRESIDENT TOURE'S BOOSTERS FACE IDENTITY CRISIS AS
2012 LOOMS

Classified By: Political Officer Fred Noyes, Embassy Bamako,
for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

1.(SBU) Summary: The Malian association Mouvement Citoyen
held a "citizens' convention" on January 31 to elect
Transportation Minister Ahmed Diane Semega as its new
President. Wholly dedicated to supporting the ideas and
works of President Amadou Toumani Toure, the Movement was
instrumental in President Toure's 2002 and 2007 presidential
victories. Results from Mali's 2004 local elections and 2007
legislative elections placed the Movement as the country's
third largest political grouping, alongside political party
heavyweights Alliance for Democracy in Mali (ADEMA) and Union
for the Republic and Democracy (URD). With President Toure's
second and final term in office rapidly approaching the
half-way point, however, the Movement and its new leader are
facing an increasingly serious identity crisis as the fan
club strives to grapple with life after President Toure.
Mali's upcoming April 26 local elections are also yielding
signs of rising confusion within the Movement over how, or
if, the association can reinvent itself once President
Toure's second and final term in office ends in 2012. During
a meeting with the Embassy, the Movement's youth leader
admitted that the association was internally divided over its
future. President Toure and Semega's unusual decision to
cancel the Movement's youth convention on February 25 at the
last moment, after many convention delegates had already
arrived in Bamako, provided further indication that all is
not well within the Mouvement Citoyen. End Summary.

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The Presidential Fan Club
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2.(SBU) The Movement Citoyen, or Citizens' Movement, was
created in 2002 to support President Toure's presidential
candidacy. Since the Movement was never registered as
political party, President Toure's campaign traded on the
claim that he, unlike other candidates, was a man of the
people untarnished by party affiliation. Former Minister of
Social Development and Solidarity, Djibril Tangara, was the
president of the Movement until he was quietly sidelined from
the government, and then the Movement itself, following
President Toure's reelection in 2007. On January 31, 2009,
the association held a "citizens' convention" in Bamako and
elected Minister of Transportation Ahmed Diane Semega as the
organization's new president. Semega previously served as
vice-president of the Movement under Tangara, was Minister of
Energy and Mines from 2002 to 2007, and is widely regarded as
one of President Toure's close confidants.

3.(SBU) The citizens' convention provided fertile ground for
recurring rumors that the Movement will soon be transformed
into a political party, perhaps in recognition of criticism
that the association's political activities are inconsistent
with its non-political party status. The convention also
served as a platform for Movement youth wing leader Amadou
Koita, who delivered a speech that openly criticized the
Malian government's failed attempt to regulate rising rice
prices and then publicly turned down an offer to join the
Movement's executive bureau. Throughout the rest of the
convention, Semega and the Movement's senior leadership
systematically shot down rumors of the association's
impending transformation into a full-fledged political party,
stating that the Movement would remain a citizens'
association dedicated to supporting the works and ideas of
President Toure. However, since the Malian constitution bars
President Toure from running for president again in 2012,
puzzlement over the Movement's status and role is rapidly
increasing as the organization moves closer and closer toward
losing its raison d'etre.

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Preparing for Communal Elections
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4.(SBU) Confusion over the Movement's political status will
likely be on public display during the run up to Mali's
upcoming communal elections scheduled for April 26. In
meetings with the Embassy on February 13 and March 3, youth
wing leader Amadou Koita indicated that the Movement is
prepared to field candidates in at least 500 of Mali's 703
communes. During Mali's last local elections in 2004, the
Movement won 2,300 of Mali's 11,000 local councilor posts - a
result which placed the Movement alongside Mali's strongest
political parties. During the 2007 legislative elections,
the Movement won 17 of the National Assembly's 147 seats,
becoming the third largest political grouping within the
Assembly after ADEMA and URD. The Movement currently boasts
three Cabinet Ministers in President Toure's government.
Only ADEMA has more Ministers, with five.


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5.(SBU) Because the Movement is a a fan club rather than a
political party, association members seeking to run for local
office must register as independent candidates, meaning that
the Movement's logo cannot appear on election day ballots or
campaign materials. Although this may disadvantage some
Movement candidates on election day, the association's
sizable financial resources and name recognition more than
make up for the missing Movement logo.

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Youth Convention Canceled
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6.(C) According to Koita, the Movement's youth wing intended
to hold its own youth convention on February 7. The date was
later reset for February 28 to allow President Toure to
attend. However, on February 25, an emissary of President
Toure told Koita that the youth convention was indefinitely
postponed. An official messenger from the presidency
confirmed this decision to Koita one day later. Since youth
delegates from 33 of Mali's 49 administrative circles, as
well as representative from Movement groups in Senegal and
France, had already arrived in Bamako, this decision put
Koita, as the convention's organizer, in a rather
uncomfortable position.

7.(C) Koita told the Embassy that senior Movement leaders
provided three reasons for the cancellation: 1) the
convention was over budget; 2) not all pro-President Toure
associations were represented; and 3) security concerns.
Unable to obtain any additional explanation or
justifications, Koita concluded that these rationales were
pretexts intended to conceal political reasons for the youth
convention's cancellation. Koita was less certain of what
these political reasons might be but speculated that Minister
Semega may feel threatened by Koita's popularity among youth
activists. Evidently short on humility, Koita repeatedly
compared himself to President Barack Obama during our
discussion and announced that he has presidential ambitions
of his own following the end of President Toure's second and
final term in 2012.

8.(C) Worried that his fellow youth members would see through
the flimsy rationale for the convention's cancellation, Koita
told the Embassy he was forced to invent a pretext of his
own, attributing the cancellation to the sudden
hospitalization of an important Movement supporter. Koita
said he hoped to speak with President Toure soon to set a new
date for the youth league convention, but admitted that the
convention may not occur until after the April communal
elections.

9.(U) On March 2, a local newspaper speculated that the youth
convention's cancellation was an attempt by Movement
leadership to scuttle the youth wing in retaliation for
Koita's antics during the January citizens' convention.

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Ignoring the Inevitable
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10.(SBU) The Citizens' Movement may be the only political
grouping in Mali not looking eagerly toward 2012 and Mali's
next presidential election. This is rather remarkable given
the number of local and national level elected officials who
belong to the Movement. With no clear post-President Toure
game plan and a cult-of-personality type platform that is
likely not transferable to another presidential candidate,
die-hard Movement members seem to studiously avoid questions
about the association's future.

11.(SBU) Despite the Movement's apolitical status, internal
dissent and contradictions have sparked several political
spin-offs. One of these spin-offs is a micro-party, the
Citizen and Democratic Force (FDC),created by former
Movement president Tangara after he found himself at odds
with other association leaders and President Toure over
whether the Movement should convert to a political party.
Other micro-parties composed of disillusioned, ex-members are
the Citizen Party for Renewal (PCR) and new Union of Patriots
for the Republic (UPR). For his part, Koita said the Movement
could become a political party in 2012, but that there was no
current pressure to transform into a party. Koita said the
association will probably field a presidential candidate of
its own in 2012, then returned to his self-comparison to
President Obama.

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Comment: Prognosis Negative
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12.(C) In 2002 support from the Citizens' Movement enabled

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President Toure to portray himself as above the fray of party
politics, as an independent representative of the people as
opposed to a representative of a particular political
faction. In 2007 President Toure retained his independent
rhetoric, but welcomed the endorsement of Mali's major
political parties. This was in large part a marriage of
convenience as it compromised his independent message but
also ensured that major political rivals - ADEMA and the URD
- would keep their own formidable presidential candidates
waiting in the wings until 2012. This strategy helped
President Toure secure an easy first round re-election with
70 percent of the vote. It also put the first serious crack
in the Citizens' Movement veneer. As President Toure's
second and final term approaches its half-way point, the
Citizens' Movement's reason for being is fizzling away. With
its political platform hitched to the political fortunes of
one man, internal dissent over how the Movement should
reinvent itself has the potential to tear the Movement apart.
Amadou Koita's self-delusions may be a symptom of this
internal malaise, and the apparently political attempt to
undermine him from above reinforces suspicions that Koita is
not the only person with presidential ambitions capable of
pushing the Movement to the breaking point. Minister of
Transport and new Movement president Ahmed Diane Semega is
one senior leader rumored to be eyeing an eventual
presidential bid. The Movement, however, is not dedicated to
the ideas and works of Semega, and with President Toure
seemingly the only force holding the Movement together, the
post-Toure prognosis isn't good.
MILOVANOVIC