IRANIAN SNSC ON AFGHANISTAN, OPPOSITION ARRESTS

S E C R E T BAKU 000972 NOFORN SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/18/2019 TAGS: PREL PGOV SA AJ SY IR SUBJECT: IRANIAN SNSC ON AFGHANISTAN, OPPOSITION ARRESTS REF: A. A) BAKU 909 ¶B. B) BAKU 921 ¶C. C) BAKU 920 (NOTAL) Classified By: POL/Econ Chief Rob Garverick, for Reasons 1.4 (b and d). ¶1. (S/NOFORN) Baku Iran watcher met again with an Iranian-Azerbaijani journalist/magazine editor who previously reported on recent deliberations of the Supreme National Security Council (Shuraye Aliye Amniate Melli),and other issues (reftels). Baku contact has been known to Iran watcher for over a year and has reported reliably in the past. The purported original source of the SNSC information, if real, has credible access to knowledge of these discussions (ref c). U.S.-Taliban Alliance Against Iran? -------------- ¶2. (S/NOFORN) According to the Baku Source, an SNSC meeting that allegedly occurred approximately two and a half weeks ago included discussion of President Obama's Afghan policy and troop surge plan. The source alleged that several SNSC members asserted that the USG is seeking an accommodation with the Taliban in order to undertake a joint attack on Iran, and that the upcoming U.S. troop surge should be understood in this context. Note: It was implied that this was the SNSC's consensus, but this was not clear. End Note). The Baku source provided no other information on this alleged discussion, but claimed that SNSC Secretary Saeed Jalili subsequently went to Syria to meet with Hamas and Hezbollah leaders in order to line up their support for military actions against American and/or Israeli targets in the event of a military strike against Iran by either party. Opposition Leadership Arrest Proposal -------------- ¶3. (S/NOFORN) Baku source also related claims that the SNSC recently received a proposal and an associated option plan from the Revolutionary Guard leadership concerning the possible the arrest of top opposition and "Green Movement" leaders during either before or immediately after the upcoming religious holiday of Ashura (January 7, 2010). It is unclear if this alleged proposal was actually adopted, or merely provided as a basis for discussion. Baku Iran watcher asked that, if possible, more details be obtained about this alleged Revolutionary Guard "proposal." Saudis Deport Iranian Detainees -------------- ¶4. (C) Citing sources in the Tehran Office for the Haj, the Baku source claimed that approximately 80 Iranian pilgrims who were allegedly detained by Saudi authorities while en route to Mecca were deported back to Iran about two weeks ago (see ref a). LU