AZERBAIJAN: MPS DEBATE NK AND DEMOCRATIC REFORM

C O N F I D E N T I A L BAKU 000955 SIPDIS DEPT FOR EUR/CARC E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/11/2019 TAGS: PGOV KDEM PHUM PREL SZ AJ SUBJECT: AZERBAIJAN: MPS DEBATE NK AND DEMOCRATIC REFORM Classified By: Charge Donald Lu, for reasons 1.4 b and d. ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: In a lively, sometimes heated, discussion on December 3, Members of Parliament from different political parties talked about the major problems facing Azerbaijan with Ethan Goldrich, visiting Director of the State Department's Office of Caucasus Affairs and Regional Conflicts. All MPs agreed that a creative solution to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict should be found soon, and that the international community needed to take a more active approach to this issue. While the parties disagreed on the level of democracy Azerbaijan currently has, they all agreed that more technical aid from the U.S. could help, and in particular exchange programs should be expanded. END SUMMARY. U.S. neglect of Azerbaijan? -------------- ¶2. (C) Asim Mollazade, of the Democratic Reforms Party, began the discussion by expressing his fear that Azerbaijan is being neglected by the Obama Administration. With the focus on "resetting" relations with Russia and the big push in Afghanistan, Mollazade stated Azerbaijan could be forgotten, citing the current lack of an Ambassador as an example. Goldrich replied improving relations between the U.S. and Russia will benefit the entire South Caucasus, as Russia will stop seeing the region in terms of a zero-sum game. Samad Seyidov of the ruling Yeni Azerbaijan Party also raised the issue of the recent referendum in Switzerland banning the construction of minarets. Seyidov said he would raise it at the next Council of Europe meeting as an evidence of the double standards the West has on human rights issues, and the other MPs also expressed similar disappointment over the vote. Nagorno-Karabakh -------------- ¶3. (C) As all conversations in Azerbaijan, the talk quickly switched to Nagorno-Karabakh (NK). Both opposition and ruling party representatives stated that NK was Azerbaijan's number one problem. Igbal Agazade of the Umid Party stated that a referendum on the final status of NK should not be included in the Basic Principles. He believes this will lead to other ethnic areas of Azerbaijan using NK as a precedent to separate. He also believes that Russia is doing everything it can to prolong the conflict. He called for an EU-like confederation of states in the South Caucasus as a solution to these ethnic divisions. Nasib Nassibli of the Musavat Party agreed with these points, and believed that the best way to begin integrating the three countries was to start with Azerbaijan and Georgia, and then to press Armenian public opinion. ¶4. (C) Ali Huseynov of the ruling Yeni Azerbaijan Party said that creative solutions for the NK conflict were needed now. He stated that when the parties are close to a solution, both sides will have to compromise and neither public is ready for this. While it will be hard to convince the publics of new creative solutions, Huseynov believes that the international community needs to push these ideas. Democratic reform -------------- ¶5. (C) Agazade then raised the "painful" issue of Azerbaijan's lack of democratic development. He explained that political parties have no power in Azerbaijan, and there is no legal way for a new party to take over governing the country, given the limits on parliament and the prime minister's power. He suggested a solution to these many issues would be to ensure opposition representation of government oversight institutions, such as the State Oil Fund and Public Television Board. ¶6. (C) Samad Seyidov disagreed with Agazade, stating that it is not the government's fault that the opposition is weak. Nassibli replied, however that there are three reasons the opposition is weak: oil revenues, oppression by the government, and mistake made by opposition leaders. Nassibli stated that there is zero democracy in Azerbaijan at present. Seyidov disagreed again, and stated that the U.S. has double standards when it evaluates the level of democracy and human rights in country. ¶7. (C) Asim Mollazade stated that it is up to the Azerbaijani people to bring democracy to Azerbaijan, not the United States. Azerbaijan needs new technologies and a new class of managers. Americans can help however by sharing their experience and knowledge with Azerbaijanis and in particular by funding Azerbaijanis to study abroad. He pointed out that change came to Georgia through people who had studied in the U.S. during the early 1990s, while at that time the USG was providing almost no aid to Azerbaijan. Comment -------------- ¶8. (C) The discussion between these MPs of different political parties was lively, at some points even heated. There were, however two points on which both the opposition and the ruling party agreed. First, now is the time for creative solutions on NK, and these solutions need to be pushed by the international community. Secondly, the USG can help Azerbaijan by providing more aid in the form of exchange programs. These programs allow Azerbaijanis to learn from United States best practices, but they do not frighten the GOAJ through demands for immediate change. ¶9. (U) Ethan Goldrich has cleared this cable. LU