AZERBAIJAN: PRESIDENT'S FOREIGN POLICY ADVISOR ON

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BAKU 000940

SIPDIS

FOR EUR/CARC

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/07/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL ENRG IR AF AM AJ
SUBJECT: AZERBAIJAN: PRESIDENT'S FOREIGN POLICY ADVISOR ON
NK, TURKEY-ARMENIA, ARM SALES AND BLOGGERS

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Donald Lu
for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: Presidential Foreign Policy Advisor Novruz
Mammadov, meeting December 3 with EUR/CARC Office Director
Ethan Goldrich, had kind words of support for President
Obama's December 1 speech and the Afghanistan mission.
Azerbaijan, based on Turkey's assurances, sees a link between
Turkey-Armenia normalization efforts and Nagorno-Karabakh
resolution. Azerbaijan has been quiet about developments
over the summer and fall, but may become more vocal again if
the parties proceed without taking Azerbaijan's interests
into consideration. The United States should play the role
of "referee," rather than mediator, with Washington dictating
to the parties terms of resolution based on "international
law." Mammadov complained that the U.S. wants Azerbaijan to
raise its military to NATO standards, but won't allow
Azerbaijan to purchase American weaponry. End Summary.

Positive Assessment of Afghanistan Speech
--------------


2. (C) EUR/CARC Director Ethan Goldrich expressed gratitude
to Presidential Administration Foreign Policy Advisor Novruz
Mammador for Azerbaijan's contributions to coalition efforts
in Afghanistan and asked for the GOAJ's assessment of
President Obama's December 1 speech on a new strategy for the
war in Afghanistan. Mammadov said that Azerbaijan recognizes
that the war in Afghanistan is "not only a U.S. fight" but a
mission that demands contributions from all nations. After
the tragic events of September 11, 2001, Azerbaijan was one
of the first nations to respond, with former President Heydar
Aliyev pledging to cooperate. That pledge has led to 90
troops on the ground and other areas of cooperation ranging
from training to provision of medicines to the building of
schools.


3. (C) Azerbaijan also allows U.S. military aircraft to
flyover its territory, with personnel and hazardous cargo,
and supports the Northern Distribution Network via the Port
of Baku. Mammadov said that Azerbaijan is exploring other
areas for cooperation, though he did not comment on prospects
for a Train and Equip Program, now being reviewed by the
Foreign Ministry.

NK Non-Resolution Hampering Cooperation
--------------


4. (C) Mammadov quickly turned the conversation to
Nagorno-Karabakh, noting Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan's
December 7 visit to Washington. Azerbaijan's leadership
acknowledges that the Turkey-Armenia normalization process is
resulting in additional U.S. attention to the NK conflict,
with "everything intensified." Now is the time for
resolution, he said. Azerbaijan depends on the international
community, especially the United States, to resolve the
conflict. Regarding Turkey-Armenia normalization, Baku sees
this process linked to NK resolution, based on repeated
statements from Turkey's leadership. Azerbaijan has been
"quiet" about normalization over the summer and fall, but
won't remain so if Turkey does not keep its promises.


5. (C) Azerbaijan's leadership remains dedicated to
integration with the West, with the President and his staff
understanding that "improvements need to be made" on
democracy. However, the current state of non-resolution, he
suggested, prevents further cooperation between the United
States and Azerbaijan, including perhaps additional support
for Afghanistan, democratic development in Azerbaijan and
maybe even realization of a Southern Corridor for natural gas
export. Russia and Iran like to point out that the United
States "does much to contradict the interests of Azerbaijan,"
he said.

Call for a Stronger U.S. Role
--------------


6. (C) Without directly calling for the end of the Minsk
Group process, Mammadov asked for the United States to assume
the role of "referee," rather than mediator, in peace talks,
with Washington taking the initiative to draw up principles

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for resolution "based on international law." The Minsk
Group, as it currently stands, calls for the two sides to
come together to resolve the conflict, and this approach has
not been effective. The United States, he said, must lead,
as Russia and France are incapable of constructive actions.
French FM Kouchner's statement at Athens suggesting that the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict should be resolved within three
months "was not useful."


7. (C) Such U.S.-prepared principles for resolution, Mammadov
suggested, would certainly support Azerbaijan's claims to
territorial integrity. Beyond the dispute over rights to the
Nagorno-Karabakh enclave, Armenia is occupying seven of
Azerbaijan's territories and "has no legitimate claim" to
these lands. The Minsk Group, perhaps, should draft a plan
to liberate the seven territories and leave the issue of the
NK enclave until later. Mammadov also called for the United
States Congress to repeal FSA Section 907, which "unjustly
identifies Azerbaijan as an aggressor."

Bloggers Over Stated
--------------


8. (C) Goldrich raised the cases of Emin Milli and Adnan
Hajizade, who were charged with hooliganism and recently
sentenced to prison. The United States hopes that the
appeals process will work quickly and justly to review their
cases, and President Aliyev should consider pardoning the two
youth activists. Their continued imprisonment, Goldrich
said, damages the reputation of Azerbaijan in the West, and
diverts attention from other issues. Mammadov, in turn,
complained that the foreign media is writing too much about
the cases of the bloggers, and not enough about
Nagorno-Karabakh. When Karabakh is discussed in the Western
media, the story is distorted, as in the case of EuroNews.
"Why is there so much focus on two youth activists and so
little attention given to one millionQefugees? he asked.
"The United States comes here to tell us to release two
bloggers, but you won't go to Armenia to demand withdraw from
the occupied territories." Mammadov said that he privately
lobbied for their release, but other forces in the government
have argued that the United States uses this issue to harm
Azerbaijan's image. He concluded, suggesting that Azerbaijan
wants to cooperate with the United States, but U.S. criticism
is not productive and does not bring about positive results.

High Level Visits to Azerbaijan, Weapon Sales
--------------


9. (C) Mammadov noted that Secretary Clinton had traveled to
Zurich in October for the signing of the protocols, and there
she had met with Armenian Foreign Minister Nalbandian.
Meanwhile, a U.S. Secretary of State had not visited
Azerbaijan in nearly 15 years. Russia and others frequently
send high level visitors, and Azerbaijan is commonly invited
to join the Collective Security Treaty Organization. At this
time, however, CSTO membership remains unappealing for
Azerbaijan, Mammadov acknowledged. Meanwhile, the United
States wants Azerbaijan to raise its military to NATO
standards, but no NATO member has authority to sell weapons
to Azerbaijan. Rather, Baku must rely on "Kalashnikovs," he
said.

Comment: Mammadov in Rare Form
--------------


10. (C) Mammadov was highly animated and excitable in meeting
with Goldrich, speaking bluntly, without notes and, at times,
seemingly thinking out loud. His proposal for a
U.S.-dictated settlement of NK is not entirely new, but it is
not commonly shared with Washington visitors. It is
interesting that Mammadov believes that terms of resolution
developed by a Washington "referee" would wholly support
Azerbaijan's contentions, in line with "international law."
It is also interesting that Mammadov refrained from criticism
of Moscow, which is typically a target of his rhetoric. In
extensive interviews the following day with the Azerbaijani
press, Mammadov struck a much calmer and more balanced tone,
referring to "positive dynamics" at Athens and Munich and
refraining from criticism of the Minsk Group.


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11. (U) This cable has been cleared by EUR/CARC Director
Goldrich.
LU