AZERBAIJAN: FM READOUT ON IRAN'S EVOLVING

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 BAKU 000925 SIPDIS DEPT FOR EB/ESC, EUR/CARC DEPT FOR EB/ESC, EUR/CARC DEPT FOR S/EEE AMB MORNINGSTAR AND DSTEIN DEPT FOR EB/ESC DAS DOUG HENGEL DEPT FOR S/CT FOR GROBERTSON, DKURSCH, CLARKS DOE FOR LEKIMOFF, MBURPOE, AND DGOTTFRIED E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/25/2019 TAGS: ENRG PREL IR AJ SUBJECT: AZERBAIJAN: FM READOUT ON IRAN'S EVOLVING POLITICAL LANDSCAPE REF: A. IIR 6941003110 ¶B. ROSS-KAIDANOW EMAIL 18 NOVEMBER ¶C. BAKU 900 BAKU 00000925 001.2 OF 003 Classified By: Acting Pol/Econ Chief Shannon Ross Reasons 1.4 (B,D, E) Summary -------------- ¶1. (S) In a November 19 meeting, Foreign Minister Mammadyarov and Charge D'Affaires Lu discussed the Iran Alborz rig situation (reftels) and Mammadyarov provided additional commentary on Iran's evolving political situation. He noted Supreme Leader Khameini is in weak health, and said that Ayatollah Hashemi Rafsanjani is a possible strong contender to be his successor. He dismissed Presidential candidate Mousavi's claims to be a reformist. He portrayed current sanctions as largely toothless, and noted that while crude oil sanctions would bite more, they would be hard to achieve. He bemoaned the domestic Iranian disarray that leads it to bully Azerbaijan, and hoped for a positive outcome for the Alborz rig situation. Khamenei in Poor Health; Rafsanjani as Possible Successor? -------------- ¶2. (S) FM Mammadyarov stated that Supreme Leader Khameini was in poor health, although the GOAJ has not pinned down his specific health condition. Mammadyarov opined that if Khamenei were to die soon, there would not be time to prepare a successor. The Charge and FM discussed possible outcomes if Supreme Leader Khamenei were to be incapacitated or to die without clear succession. FM Mammadyarov assessed it was possible that former Iranian President and now Chairman of the Assembly of Experts Rafsanjani could succeed the Supreme Leader. FM Mammadyarov stated, "I know Rafsanjani personally, he is rich and very ambitious. He understands Ahmedinajad is not the center of power, but that the Supreme Leader is." Mammadyarov claimed that Rafsanjani has excellent ties with the clerics and the opposition, a factor which could promote him as a consensus candidate. FM Mammadyarov also dismissed Presidential candidate Mousavi's claims to be a reformist, stating, "I don't believe he is a reformist, this is a fight for power and office." ¶3. (S) In case of a contentious succession, or if Ahmadinajad considered himself too hemmed in by Rafsanjani at some point in the future, FM Mammadyarov told us the most important question would be, "is Ahmedinajad ready to use all (security) forces to stay in power, and if not, what instruments would he use?" FM Mammadyarov asserted that all Iranian law enforcement bodies remain loyal to President Ahmadinajad. ¶4. (SBU) Discussing societal trends in Iran, FM Mammadyarov noted there were religious trends in Iranian society that almost mirror those in Saudi Arabia. He added that the (ethnically) Azeri part of Iran has become very religious. Crude Sanctions would Pinch -------------- ¶5. (S) Leaving aside the nuclear issue, the FM asked rhetorically what the international community should do to bring more predictability to Iran. He and the Charge discussed the proper mixture of engagement and sanctions. FM Mammadyarov told us that the current sanctions were largely an inconvenience. UN Security Council sanctions or a boycott on purchasing Iranian crude oil would be harder to achieve, but likely have a larger impact. BAKU 00000925 002.2 OF 003 Alborz Rig: Azerbaijan Keeps a Low Profile, Hopes for Positive Turn after Tehran Visit -------------- ¶6. (S) On the pressing issue of the Alborz rig, now located in potentially disputed Caspian waters, FM Mammadyarov stated: "We're keeping this low profile, we'll be more ready (i.e., to consider other action) after my Tehran visit. I don't believe Ahmadinajad is interested in doing something bad to Azerbaijan." FM Mammadyarov told the Charge the Iranians were willing to discuss the Alborz movements, and in fact they were pressing him to make his visit to Tehran soon. Pointing to the border region with Azerbaijan as a much-needed escape valve for the Iranian people, one the regime should not risk, FM Mammadyarov stated, "Many people (Iranians) are coming to Azerbaijan, they like the fresh air." Still, FM criticized Iran for the "domestic turbulence" that he said leads it to often bully Azerbaijan. UNSC Remains Plan if Iran Moves to Alov -------------- ¶7. (S) Mammadyarov reiterated his planned course of action if the Iranians move the Alborz closer to (the disputed oil field) Alov, stating, "we will write a large letter, discuss with you, and involve the UN Security Council. The UNSC is exactly the venue for this type of issue." Charge Lu asked about plans which FM Mammadyarov had previously described (reftel A, B) to place a rig out in the disputed waters if the Alborz kept advancing. FM Mammadyarov indicated that perhaps a rig was too expensive (to risk),but the GOAJ would consider putting out a marker of some type. ¶8. (S) Striking an optimistic note, FM Mammadyarov hoped that, "Long term, this can be part of the solution of delimitation. Our oil people believe it's empty (referencing the sector where the Alborz is currently located). The Iranian decision to move the Alborz into disputed waters was made from a political point of view, rather than an oil point of view." FM: Russian Views -------------- ¶9. (S) The FM also laid out his understanding of Russian views related to increasing Iranian presence on the Caspian. He told the Charge, "The entire Russian elite does not like the increasing (Caspian military) strength of the Iranians. They believe the Caspian is their own, the (so-called) 'internal waters of the Russian empire.'" He noted that he had recent discussions on this topic with Russian FM Lavarov, but they did not discuss the Alborz specifically. Comment -------------- ¶10. (S) In our analysis, FM Mammadyarov's position on Alborz reflects his and the GOAJ,s long-standing desire to avoid public confrontations with Iran if at all possible. Nonetheless, he may be overly optimistic in hoping for a quick resolution of Alborz situation. He himself admits that the rig movement appears to be a political and sovereignty chess move, rather than a move to investigate the site for its energy resources. His references to Russia were notably more positive than some of his colleagues, (reftel C),and may or may not reflect recent Russian reassurances. (President Aliyev notably enjoyed a warm visit with President Medvedev yesterday.) At the moment he and the GOAJ, aware of their military weakness, appear to be playing a waiting game, while holding a possible mid-December appeal to the Security Council as a possible fallback position or diplomatic trump BAKU 00000925 003.2 OF 003 card. DAVIDSON