AZERBAIJAN: EUSR VISIT DISCUSSION OF BLOGGERS,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAKU 000904

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR/CARC, DAS KAIDANOW, AMB BRADTKE
INR FOR PSTRONSKI
DRL FOR WSILVERMAN, SCORKE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/19/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM KDEM ENRG RU TX AM TU AJ
SUBJECT: AZERBAIJAN: EUSR VISIT DISCUSSION OF BLOGGERS,
N-K, AZ-RUSSIAN BORDER AND NORTH CAUCASUS

REF: BAKU 898

Classified By: Acting DCM T. Davidson, Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: On November 18, the political advisor to
Peter Semneby, EU Special Representative (EUSR) for the South
Caucasus, briefed poloff on Semneby's recent trip to Baku and
Yerevan that concluded November 16 and included meetings with
both Presidents, the Azerbaijani FM and Russian Ambassador to
Baku. Sargsian signaled to Semneby that he might further
distance himself from previously agreed positions on the IDP
issue when he meets Aliyev in Munich. For his part, Aliyev
repeated his threats to cut off energy cooperation with
Turkey. However, he did broach the possibility of an amnesty
that would free imprisoned bloggers Milli and Hajizade. The
Russian Ambassador told Semneby that Baku and Moscow had made
a breakthrough on the final issue affecting border
delimitation. Aliyev's recent meeting with Chechen President
Kadyrov may signal increasing cooperation on clamping down on
the movement of militants in the Caucasus, despite the
latter's accusatory public posture. End Summary.

Light at the End of the Tunnel for Bloggers?
--------------

2. (C) Claire Delessard, political advisor to EUSR Semneby,
briefed Poloff on Semneby's most recent travel to Baku and
Yerevan, which concluded November 16. As reported Reftel,
President Aliyev suggested that an amnesty may be in the
offing that would free the imprisoned bloggers Emin Milli and
Adnan Hajizade. However, the President expressed anger about
the level of international criticism that the case had
attracted.

N-K, Turkey-Armenia, Energy
--------------

3. (C) According to Delessard, Armenian President Sargsian
signaled that Armenia's position will harden at the upcoming
meeting of Presidents in Munich. Sargsian told Semneby that
Azerbaijani IDPs could not be permitted to return to N-K
until final status is determined, and questioned the need for
a voting mechanism to determine it. In any case, Azerbaijani
participation in a vote was not to be considered.

4. (C) Azerbaijani President Aliyev and Foreign Minister
Mammadyarov did not offer much substance on N-K aside from
criticizing the Co-Chairs for not being "active" enough
(NFI). The Russian Ambassador in Baku, Vladimir Dorokhin,
told Semneby that the GOAJ complained to him that the
Co-Chairs were too inclined to postpone discussion of the
really contentious issues.

5. (C) Although Aliyev was nonspecific about the Minsk Group
negotiations, he very openly said that the Turkey-Armenia
process would undermine Turkey-Azerbaijan energy cooperation
if it concluded without taking Baku's interests into account.
"It can never be like before," Aliyev said, remarking that
he was beginning to consider much more seriously doing White
Stream, maritime transport of compressed gas to Bulgaria, and
sales to Russia and Iran. He was also bitterly dismissive of
Turkmenistan, seeing little prospect for joining with that
country in a westward export route.

6. (C) Delessard added that in separate meetings with foreign
investors, two major companies (NFI) working on Shah Deniz
told Semneby that they were planning to withdraw from the
project if Turkey and Azerbaijan could not reach agreement on
the Shah Deniz I pricing and Shah Deniz II volume and transit
issues by the end of 2009.

Russian Border Delimitation
--------------

7. (C) Ambassador Dorokhin told Semneby that Moscow and Baku
had made serious progress toward resolving the remaining
obstacle to final delimitation of their common border, which
is the allocation of water from the Samur river. The two
sides, the Ambassador said, were about to agree on an equal
access arrangement for the water resources. (Note: The
Samur-Apsheronsky Canal is the primary source of fresh water

BAKU 00000904 002 OF 002


for the Absheron Peninsula and the city of Baku. The river
is much more important to Azerbaijan than Russia, although 90
percent of its source waters are in Russia. End Note.)

North Caucasus
--------------

8. (C) Delessard told Poloff that Aliyev and Semneby also
discussed the North Caucasus, and that Azerbaijan was even
more concerned than before about the region because of
security issues along the pipeline that will now carry the
gas Azerbaijan agreed to sell to Russia. Aliyev's recent
meeting with Chechen President Kadyrov (Note: Kadyrov visited
Baku in November 6 during the festivities marking the 30th
anniversary of the accession of Allahshakur Pashazade to the
leadership of the Caucasus Muslim Board. End Note) focused
on increasing cooperation to clamp down on the free movement
of Islamic militants between Azerbaijan and the North
Caucasus regions. Delessard said that Aliyev admitted that
Azerbaijani passports had been found on about five percent of
the fighters killed in Chechnya, Ingushetia and Dagestan in
recent months. Aliyev reported a cordial and cooperative
meeting with Kadyrov, which belied the latter's accusations
from September 2009 of Azerbaijan's complicity in the supply
of arms to terrorists.

LU