"WAR OF THE FLAGS" OVER, TURKISH PARLIAMENTIANS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAKU 000870 SIPDIS DEPT FOR EUR/CARC, EUR/SE, DAS KAIDANOW, AMB BRADTKE, INR FOR PSTRONSKI E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/04/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL TU AM AJ SUBJECT: "WAR OF THE FLAGS" OVER, TURKISH PARLIAMENTIANS ALLAY AZERI FEARS REF: A. ANKARA 1537 ¶B. ANKARA 1569 Classified By: Charge Donald Lu, Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: The so-called "war of the flags" is over, and the consensus among observers is that the result of Baku's tantrum over the "trashcan incident" in Bursa and the removal of Turkish flags from a war memorial in Baku is a net loss in Turkish sympathy for Azerbaijan. On Turkey's national day (29 October),with a delegation led by the chairman of the Turkish parliamentary commission on international relations visiting Baku, Azerbaijani rhetoric resumed its traditional emphasis on the indispensability of Turkish-Azerbaijani relations. Although we detect significant distrust of Turkish motives behind the scenes, official Baku seems to have decided for the time being that the wiser course is to refrain from giving Ankara a reason to marginalize Azerbaijani interests. The visiting parliamentarians reassured Azerbaijan that ratification is nowhere close. Among our contacts, including Turkish diplomats, the key question is how much Nagorno-Karabakh "progress" is enough to deliver ratification while minimizing the damage here. End Summary. War of the Flags Ends Abruptly -------------- ¶2. (C) The "war of the flags" began with the decision of FIFA soccer authorities to disallow fans from bringing Azerbaijani flags into the stadium during the Turkey-Armenia match in Bursa October 14. The story quickly became a lightning rod in Baku, with the media claiming that the Turkish government was behind it, and the MFA summoning the Turkish Charge for a dressing-down. The controversy peaked when images appeared on Azerbaijani television showing flags allegedly confiscated outside the stadium dumped in a garbage can. Azerbaijan's official indignation resulted in the removal of Turkish flags from display at prominent sites in Baku - most importantly at the war memorial in the Martyrs' Alley in Baku, which is dedicated to Turkish soldiers who died liberating Baku temporarily from the Bolsheviks in September 1918. ¶3. (C) Reportedly the flags were removed by plainclothesmen claiming to come from a local government bureau that monitors compliance with building codes, who claimed they were enforcing a point of Azerbaijani law that a foreign flag may only be displayed on the territory of the foreign country's embassy. Presidential advisor Ali Hasanov, who is often the spokesman for the government's controversial policies, confirmed this and claimed, improbably, that the timing was coincidental. ¶4. (C) The incident with the flags prompted conciliatory remarks from Turkish Foreign Minister Davutoglu during his October 22 visit to Baku, along with a promise to investigate the story from Bursa. After the FM's visit the flags were restored quickly, andthe Turkish national day commemorations in Baku n October 29 included a wreath-laying ceremony at the memorial. The Azerbaijani parliament also undertook to amend the laws governing the display of foreign flags to prevent any future unfortunate coincidences. Turkish diplomats in Baku told us that they believed the "war of the flags" was a net loss for Azerbaijan in terms of Turkish public sympathies, coinciding with the observations in Reftel ¶A. Back to Business As Usual? -------------- ¶5. (C) The visit of several Turkish parliamentarians on the national day also contributed to the clearing of the political atmosphere. The delegation of foreign affairs commission chairman Murat Mercan; his AKP colleagues Saban Dishli, Zeynep Dagi, Fevzi Sanberdi, Abdullah Caliskan and Mehmet Cerci, as well as MHP deputies Ahmet Deniz Bolukbasi and Shenol Bal had a widely-covered meeting with President Aliyev. They reportedly assured him that the Turkish BAKU 00000870 002 OF 002 parliament was not ready to consider ratification of the protocols, noting that other legislative initiatives have languished in parliament for nearly a decade without action. The reassurances led Aliyev to make fulsome comments to the effect that nothing can happen in the region without Turkish-Azerbaijani cooperation. ¶6. (C) Although the GOAJ hastened to resume its usual friendly outlook towards Turkey, there is still considerable doubt about Turkey's motives. Member of Parliament Asim Mollazade told Poloff that the visiting Turkish delegation was "insincere" and that he expects Turkey to abandon Azerbaijan on the Karabakh issue as it moves forward with the protocols. Comment -------------- ¶7. (C) The flag incident and Azerbaijan's quick pivot on its public attitude to Turkey are an instructive example of how quickly the government can move to alter its message and affect public opinion. There are several reasons for them to do this -- the government may actually be sufficiently reassured by the statements of key Turkish leaders and legislators that Turkey will not take steps that damage Azerbaijani interests. More likely, however, the GOAJ observed that it had crossed a line with the flag controversy and was hurting its own standing in Turkish public opinion. ¶8. (C) Comment Continued: There may also be a psychological element in that Baku might assess that by projecting confidence about the outcome of the ratification battle in Turkey, it can undermine Yerevan's trust that Turkey acted in good faith by signing. For the moment, senior Azerbaijani officials appear to be confident that Turkey will not ratify the protocols without progress on NK. This level of confidence has waxed and waned over the last nine months, but again appears to be on an upswing. LU