FORMER YOUTH LEADER JOINS THE OPPOSITION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAKU 000802 SIPDIS DEPT FOR EUR/CARC AND DRL E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/07/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM KDEM PINR AJ SUBJECT: FORMER YOUTH LEADER JOINS THE OPPOSITION REF: A. 06BAKU1572 ¶B. 07BAKU66 Classified By: Political-Economic Counselor Robert Garverick, for reaso ns 1.4 b and d. ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: On October 6 Emboffs met with Razi Nurullayev, the newly elected deputy-chairman of the Azerbaijan Popular Front (PFP) to discuss the party's plans for the December municipal elections. Nurullayev stated that the six major opposition parties would not/not be running as a bloc. He believes Azerbaijan is ready for democracy now, which is why he decided to join the PFP, and asked the USG to do more in rural Azerbaijan on education and creating access to new media. He criticized the academic exchange program between Azerbaijan and the U.S., as many exchange alumni do not do enough, in his opinion, to support Azerbaijan's democratization. While it is a positive sign that a former youth activist such as Nurullayev is now joining a political party, Nurullayev, like most opposition leaders, is more of a big picture thinker than a political campaigner and therefore may not add much to PFP's dismal election prospects. END SUMMARY Razi Nurullayev Bio -------------- ¶2. (C) Razi Nurullayev was elected the new deputy-chairman on international affairs for the opposition Popular Front Party (PFP) in September. Nurullayev studied in the U.S. as an exchange student and recently attended the Ford Foundation's Leadership Program at Columbia University. Nurullayev was involved in opposition politics, but left due to internal fighting between branches of the PFP and founded the Yox (No!) Movement ) an independent youth movement that was very active in 2005-6 (reftels). In May 2005 he criticized the GOAJ at a conference in Amsterdam, and upon his return the police quickly arrested him. He was released 7 days later, and believes his quick release was due to pressure from the Netherlands; in contrast Ruslan Bashirli, leader of a similar youth movement was arrested around the same time and remains in prison. Municipal Elections Update -------------- ¶3. (C) Nurullayev stated that the six major opposition parties will not be running against the ruling party as an official bloc in municipal elections, despite previous statements by other parties that they would. He said the election code makes running as a bloc too difficult, as it requires candidates from a bloc to have two notarized documents from every party from the bloc; a total of 12 for each candidate. (NOTE: OSCE's reading of the election code differs from this, and the OSCE office in Baku is working with the CEC to clarify the rules. In a separate meeting, Umid Party Chairman Igbal Agazade told poloff that the real reason for the dispute between the parties is that Musavat Party and PFP are embarrassed that they cannot organize a significant slate of candidates from their parties for this election. END NOTE.) Nurullayev stated that the six parties would unofficially work together during the campaign, however, and not oppose one another. Azerbaijan Ready for Democracy -------------- ¶4. (C) Nurullayev said he joined the PFP, rather than take a well-paid job, because he believes that Azerbaijan is ready for democracy now. He said he receives messages on Facebook from children of GOAJ officials who say their parents send their drivers to secretly buy opposition newspapers. Nurullayev said he believes these officials are frustrated with the current government because they worry they could lose their business income at any moment. As there is no way to have a legitimate business in Azerbaijan, these officials rely on the favor of one minister or another, and never know when they might fall out of favor. These people want rule of law, which is the basis for democracy. BAKU 00000802 002 OF 002 USG Should Expand Education and Access to New Media -------------- -------------- ¶5. (C) Nurullayev asked the USG for more support in the regions at the grassroots level. Particularly, he said access to new media was important, including SMS text messaging, Facebook, and the internet. Nurullayev also believes that more educational programs should be implemented for both children and adults. This new media would allow a pluralism of viewpoints and education would allow for critical thinking, which would hopefully lead to more democratic ideals. Nurullayev also complained that the Azerbaijani Alumni Association (AAA),supported by the Embassy, and alumni of American exchange programs in general do not do enough to support the development of democracy in the country. COMMENT -------------- ¶6. (C) Nurullayev is taking his youth movement and NGO experience and putting it toward a political career, a rare but positive step in Azerbaijan's democratic development. Even Nurullayev admitted, however, that his friends thought he was crazy for joining PFP, given the persecution he and his family are likely to experience. Nurullayev's international experience could bring some sorely needed credibility to the PFP, but like most opposition leaders Nurullayev is more of a big picture thinker than an active campaigner. He was unable to explain exactly how PFP was picking its candidates for municipal elections, or what the party's plans for the election would be. Interest in municipal elections is low throughout the country, however, and few political parties are putting much effort into these elections. With the parliamentary elections looming in 2010, Nurullayev's perspective may be more useful. LU