AZERBAIJAN: TOUGH TALK ON U.S. DEMOCRACY POLICY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAKU 000614 SIPDIS DEPT FOR EUR/CARC AND DRL E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/04/2019 TAGS: PGOV KDEM PHUM PREL AJ SUBJECT: AZERBAIJAN: TOUGH TALK ON U.S. DEMOCRACY POLICY Classified By: Classified by Charge Donald Lu, Reasons 1.4 b and d. ¶1. (C) Summary: In a July 31 meeting with poloff, opposition leader Isa Gambar explained that democratic forces in Azerbaijan have diminishing confidence in the United States and its ability to or interest in promoting democracy and human rights in Azerbaijan. Gambar outlined a number of specific steps the U.S. could take to fix this lack of confidence, which largely surround issues of media freedom and the lack of space for political activities in Azerbaijan. While these steps are, in reality, largely out of USG control, they do represent an emerging consensus view amongst opposition and independent NGO leaders on the largest problems in Azerbaijan's political environment. End Summary. ¶2. (C) On July 31 poloff met with Isa Gambar, long-time head of the opposition Musavat Party and in 2003 the unified opposition candidate for president. Unlike all previous meetings with Gambar, which were largely formal and diplomatic in tone, in this meeting Gambar expressed clear frustration with the direction of U.S. policy in Azerbaijan, and stated that all forces in Azerbaijan fighting for democracy have decreasing confidence in the United States. ¶3. (C) Gambar explained that he was arrested and jailed when Heydar Aliyev first came to power in 1993, but was released quickly due to U.S. intervention on his behalf. Now, however, the public sees that the U.S. has not secured the release of blogger Adnan Hajizade, who studied in the U.S., nor has it returned USG-funded radio stations to the airwaves. Gambar believes the public now concludes the following: either the U.S. no longer has much influence in Azerbaijan or the U.S. prefers to exercise its influence in other areas rather than stand up for democracy and human rights. SUGGESTIONS FOR U.S. POLICY -------------- ¶4. (C) Gambar gave several suggestions as to how the U.S. could change this public perception and bring positive changes to the political environment in Azerbaijan. He believes the U.S. should do something immediately to show that it does still have a positive influence on the GOAJ, such as securing the release of bloggers Adnan Hajizade and Emin Milli or the release of the other jailed journalists, or forcing the return of U.S. radios to the airwaves. ; ¶5. (C) Over the longer term, Gambar suggested several steps the U.S. could take to bring about positive, democratic changes in Azerbaijan. Gambar believes any one of the following actions would be more useful than 1,000 meetings and trainings sponsored by the USG. -- Push changes to the Election Code as suggested by the Council of Europe and the OSCE, including altering the balance of representation on election commissions. -- Rehabilitate freedom of speech and freedom of assembly. -- Advocate for proportional representation in the parliament to ensure that many political parties are represented. (NOTE: Musavat is currently the only opposition party to hold more than one seat in the 125-member parliament. It has four. END NOTE.) -- Create one independent television station in Azerbaijan. This station could even be a satellite station, as Gambar believes that if there were a Radio Liberty TV station, people would redirect their satellite dishes in order to watch it. MUNICIPAL ELECTION PLANS -------------- ¶6. (C) On the upcoming municipal elections, Gambar stated that there is little interest in participation amongst the public. Musavat will participate, however, as an attempt to make the public more active in their communities and as training for the 2010 parliamentary elections. Musavat and the five other major opposition parties will likely work together on the municipal elections, but may not register their candidates together, in order to increase the amount of BAKU 00000614 002 OF 002 official television time and funding available to the opposition as a whole. These parties will not compete against each other, however, meaning if there are 15 seats on a particular municipal council, there will be a total of 15 candidates from all six opposition parties. Gambar stated all the candidates will be chosen by the end of August or beginning of September and the campaign will officially start in October. COMMENT -------------- ¶7. (C) While Gambar's deputies and many other opposition leaders are often critical of U.S. policy, this is the first time in at least a year that Gambar himself has taken a more critical approach. The change probably reflects the worsening situation with respect to democracy and human rights since Aliyev's re-election as president in October ¶2008. While Gambar's specific suggestions for U.S. policy are all difficult to accomplish and largely out of the direct control of the USG, they do reflect an emerging consensus amongst both opposition and independent NGOs regarding the current largest problems in Azerbaijan's political environment. LU