IRANIAN ELECTION: IRANIAN POLITICAL SOURCES REPORT

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 BAKU 000508

NOFORN
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/27/2019
TAGS: PGOV PHUM ECON AJ IR
SUBJECT: IRANIAN ELECTION: IRANIAN POLITICAL SOURCES REPORT
ON RAFSANJANI ACTIVITIES, SITUATION TUESDAY IN TEHRAN AND
KERMANSHAH

Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission Donald Lu, for Reasons 1.4 (b) a
nd (d)

Summary
--------------


1. (S/NOFORN) Baku Iran watcher was in contact Tuesday night
with four well-connected sources who shed light on the
ongoing situation in Iran. Two sources were wealthy
Baku-based Iranian businessmen with allegedly extensive
contacts in Tehran including to Mousavi's circle. The other
two are in Iran (Tehran and Kermanshah),and were contacted
in Iran watcher's presence by a long standing Baku Iran
watcher contact, who was formerly a prominent Azeri cultural
activist and journalist in Tabriz, and subsequently a
political prisoner. The two Iranian residents contacted
(strictly protect) spoke freely and without urging. One, a
leader of the Melli Mazhabi group friendly to Rafsanjani,
shed light on the background of the current political
struggle, and described a purported Rafsanjani-supported
effort to "retire" the Supreme Leader and replace him with a
"Council of Religious Elders." He also provided information
on the current situation in Tehran, and expressed confidence
that the situation will ultimately resolve itself in the
Rafsanjani camp's favor. Another source claimed that both
Mousavi and Khameini are being moved from house to house
daily for security reasons. A source in Kermanshah reported
that he city was completely shut down on Monday and Tuesday
in response to a purported call from the Grand Ayatollah
Montazeri that may be partially supported (as a quasi-curfew)
by local authorities. End Summary.

Tehran Comments From Melli Mazhabi Figure
-------------- --------------


2. (S/NOFORN) Habib Yektah (strictly protect),described to
Iran watcher as a good personal friend of Ayatollah
Rafsanjani, spoke by land line from Tehran to an Iranian
friend in Baku. Yektah is the brother of the former
(1990,s) First Secretary of the Ministry of Heavy Industry
(the number two position). He is also a deputy leader of the
Melli Mazhabi (AKA the National Religious Alliance),a group
of Islamic intellectuals and activists, formed in 2000 to
lobby for greater liberalization and secularization within
the current system. He was imprisoned briefly for his Melli
Mazhabi activities, and reportedly has many relatives in the
United States. Yektah, who lives near Vanak Square, said
that most bazaars in Tehran are only open in the morning
(some for only two hours); the main bazaar closes in the
afternoon. Many shops in North Tehran are closed, or open
for part of the day. He said that security is extremely
heavy throughout Tehran: "Revolutionary Guards have moved
into the city," but without heavy arms (though he claimed
that some armored units are outside Tehran).


3. (S/NOFORN) According to Yektah, security personnel are
not tolerating groups of five or more gathered together on
the street, and are out in force in front of metro stations
in order to block/disperse people who seem to be moving in
groups. He added that security fears as much or more than
"protest" are contributing to the early bazaar closures, as
"the security forces themselves don't want too many people to
gather in the bazaars" and other shopping areas. He added
that there were shootings in the bazaar areas as recently as
Monday.


4. (S/NOFORN) Yektah also said that, although no general
strike has been called, large numbers of office workers are
not going to work, perhaps due to personal security concerns.
He said that key government ministries are operating, though
possibly with reduced staff. All universities are closed,
and many private companies and factories in Tehran are
effectively closed, he claimed. (Note: a Baku-based Iranian
source separately confirmed Tuesday night that many Tehranis
are not working, "though no one has told them to strike."
End Note). While confirming that the number of protesters on
the streets has declined significantly, Yektah stressed that
protests are still continuing, including shouts of "Allah
Akbar" every night from rooftops. He said that public anger
continues to run deep, and is not confined to North Tehran.
Many people in other parts of Tehran and in rural areas are
also angry, and will "never" accept the election results, he

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said.

Rafsanjani's Activities
--------------


5. (S/NOFORN) Yektah claimed that he is in touch with
Rafsanjani's circle. He said that Rafsanjani and his allies
are behind an effort to replace Supreme Leader Khameini with
a Council ("Shura") of elders. He noted that there are
rumors that Khameini has cancer, and said Khameini may be
officially replaced "for health reasons," as a face-saving
measure. Yektah also repeated assertions that Rafsanjani has
obtained commitments from at least 40 members of the Council
of Experts with regards to this strategy. He said that the
"power struggle is continuing," and bet on Rafsanjani getting
most of what he wants. (Comment: an outcome that would
personally benefit Yektah, according to a Baku source. End
Comment).

Background to the Power Struggle
--------------


6. (S/NOFORN) According to Yektah, the background behind the
current struggle and internal split is based on the issue of
"who will succeed Khameini," (especially pertinent if he
really has cancer, he noted). He commented that the election
of Mousavi would make it obvious that the
Khameini-Ahmadinejad faction and its allies would not be able
to retain the Supreme Leadership after Khameini's departure,
and that the position would likely go to a strong opponent of
their interests, and them personally. They saw their
political position steadily weakening vis-a-vis Rafsanjani
and others, and the "election coup" was their blocking
maneuver, Yektah claimed.


7. (S/NOFORN) Yektah said that the political maneuverings
are continuing, and should not be judged only by what is
happening on the streets of Tehran. That being said, he
predicted that protest activities will continue, and may be
ratcheted up in the future. He asserted confidently that the
people will not be able to go back to things as they were
before the election, and predicted that in the end the
Rafsanjani/reform faction will prevail.
Report From Baku Contact on Mousavi
-------------- --------------


8. (S/NOFORN) A wealthy Iranian energy sector figure well
known to Baku Iran watcher has been in touch recently with
friends and relatives in Tehran, Mashad, and Isfahan,
including (he claims) individuals in Tehran knowledgeable
about Mousavi's activities and plans (Note: This source is a
close friend of Enayatollah Aghaei, described as a top
Mousavi campaign aide arrested last week. Aghaei reportedly
stood near Mousavi during the latter's appearance at the
initial Tehran protest rally. End Note).


9. (S/NOFORN) The Baku contact said that the Mousavi camp
has not called for any bazaar closings or general strikes
yet. He said that "these bullets are being held back," until
needed in response to an arrest of Mousavi, or to further
ratchet up pressure. He claimed that contingency plans are
being made to launch strikes, including at the Isfahan steel
works and other key facilities. He reported that protesters
have been attempting to gather nightly at the Imam Reza
Shrine in Mashad every night, but are dispersed. He also
relayed reports of continued "bloody" repression in
Kermanshah on Sunday (see paragraph eleven below).

Impact of Bazaar Closings - Only Symbolic?
-------------- --------------


10. (S/NOFORN) Another wealthy Iranian, an international
businessman, relayed information that Khameini has again
ordered that transportation be organized to bring people from
rural areas to the large Tehran mosques on Friday. This
source, who is very familiar with Iranian market distribution
systems, cautioned that "bazaars in Iran are not what they
were thirty tears ago" in terms of economic importance. New
distribution systems involving thousands of trucks now exist
that support small neighborhood markets in lieu of bazaars.
In his view, bazaar closings today would likely be more
important in terms of political symbolism than economic

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impact.

Situation in Kermanshah
--------------


11. (S/NOFORN) An Iranian Kurdish women's rights activist in
Kermanshah reported Tuesday night that all bazaars in
Kermanshah, all shops, and even some government offices are
closed. She explained that people are reacting to a call
from Grand Ayatollah Montazeri instructing people "to say in
your homes, don't work and don't go anywhere" for three days,
beginning Monday, June 22. The three day quiet period is
supposed to be in honor of those who have died in the recent
protests. She noted that Kermanshah has witnessed several
days of bloody protests, and that she herself witnessed two
people being shot down in the streets on Saturday. According
to this source, even some local media has reported the Grand
Ayatollah's call for people to stay home. (Note: Perhaps
this is regarded as a desirable, de facto curfew by the
authorities. End Comment).


12. (S/NOFORN) According to the source, people believe that
Ayatollah Montazeri has declared working for or supporting
the Ahmadinajad government as "very bad," but has not called
it "haram" (forbidden). She contrasted this with the
Ayatollah Sanei, whom she claimed told his followers three
days ago that working for the Ahmadinejad regime is "haram."
She concluded by commenting that "people have never seen
anything like this," (the power struggle and the protests),
and opined that Iranians will no longer accept the current
system without important changes.
DERSE